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 The Avatar Prediction|Tracking Thread/ (Aug. 27 re-release) 
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Killing With Kindness
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Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatanic's Monday


BJs Prediction: 13.45m -15%
Enki - 10.1m -33%


Average: 11.78m -22%

you have until 10pm eastern, post your prediction for a chance at one day of predicting glory.

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 2:11 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
DayAvatarReturn of the KingDead Man's ChestThe Dark KnightTitanic
Wed-$34,450,834
- / -
$34,450,834 / 1
---
Thu-$17,019,987
-50.6% / -
$51,470,821 / 2
---
Fri$26,752,099
- / -
$26,752,099 / 1
$21,811,549
+28.2% / -
$73,282,370 / 3
$55,830,600
- / -
$55,830,600 / 1
$67,165,092
- / -
$67,165,092 / 1
$8,658,814
- / -
$8,658,814 / 1
Sat$25,529,036
-4.6% / -
$52,281,135 / 2
$27,492,053
+26% / -
$100,774,423 / 4
$44,443,225
-20.4% / -
$100,273,825 / 2
$47,650,240
-29.1% / -
$114,815,332 / 2
$10,672,013
+23.3% / -
$19,330,827 / 2
Sun$24,744,346
-3.1% / -
$77,025,481 / 3
$23,326,111
-15.2% / -
$124,100,534 / 5
$35,360,729
-20.4% / -
$135,634,554 / 3
$43,596,151
-8.5% / -
$158,411,483 / 3
$9,307,304
-12.8% / -
$28,638,131 / 3
Mon$16,385,820
-33.8% / -
$93,411,301 / 4
$13,563,208
-41.9% / -
$137,663,742 / 6
$18,140,271
-48.7% / -
$153,774,825 / 4
$24,493,313
-43.8% / -
$182,904,796 / 4
$5,578,212
-40.1% / -
$34,216,343 / 4
Tue$16,086,461
-1.8% / -
$109,497,762 / 5
$12,476,242
-8% / -
$150,139,984 / 7
$15,731,919
-13.3% / -
$169,506,744 / 5
$20,868,722
-14.8% / -
$203,773,518 / 5
$6,003,119
+7.6% / -
$40,219,462 / 5
Wed$16,445,291
+2.2% / -
$125,943,053 / 6
$7,544,400
-39.5% / -78.1%
$157,684,384 / 8
$14,154,725
-10% / -
$183,661,469 / 6
$18,377,288
-11.9% / -
$222,150,806 / 6
$3,571,345
-40.5% / -
$43,790,807 / 6
Thu$11,150,998
-32.2% / -
$137,094,051 / 7
$13,986,220
+85.4% / -17.8%
$171,670,604 / 9
$12,358,033
-12.7% / -
$196,019,502 / 7
$16,464,405
-10.4% / -
$238,615,211 / 7
$9,178,529
+157% / -
$52,969,336 / 7
Fri$23,095,046
+107.1% / -13.7%
$160,189,097 / 8
$19,152,196
+36.9% / -12.2%
$190,822,800 / 10
$18,544,356
+50.1% / -66.8%
$214,563,858 / 8
$23,232,292
+41.1% / -65.4%
$261,847,503 / 8
$12,122,298
+32.1% / +40%
$65,091,634 / 8
Sat$28,274,406
+22.4% / +10.8%
$188,463,503 / 9
$17,249,267
-9.9% / -37.3%
$208,072,067 / 11
$24,846,771
+34% / -44.1%
$239,410,629 / 9
$28,272,494
+21.7% / -40.7%
$290,119,997 / 9
$12,466,455
+2.8% / +16.8%
$77,558,089 / 9
Sun$24,247,681
-14.2% / -2%
$212,711,184 / 10
$14,196,641
-17.7% / -39.1%
$222,268,708 / 12
$18,954,137
-23.7% / -46.4%
$258,364,766 / 10
$23,661,680
-16.3% / -45.7%
$313,781,677 / 10
$10,866,920
-12.8% / +16.8%
$88,425,009 / 10
Mon$19,418,139
-19.9% / +18.5%
$232,129,323 / 11
$10,052,588
-29.2% / -25.9%
$232,321,296 / 13
$7,912,691
-58.3% / -56.4%
$266,277,457 / 11
$10,518,116
-55.5% / -57.1%
$324,299,793 / 11
$7,942,520
-26.9% / +42.4%
$96,367,529 / 11
Tue$18,290,628
-5.8% / +13.7%
$250,419,951 / 12
$9,615,240
-4.4% / -22.9%
$241,936,536 / 14
$7,490,004
-5.3% / -52.4%
$273,767,461 / 12
$9,629,366
-8.4% / -53.9%
$333,929,159 / 12
$8,012,909
+0.9% / +33.5%
$104,380,438 / 12
Wed$18,466,123
+1% / +12.3%
$268,886,074 / 13
$7,509,391
-21.9% / -0.5%
$249,445,927 / 15
$6,448,468
-13.9% / -54.4%
$280,215,929 / 13
$8,755,141
-9.1% / -52.4%
$342,684,300 / 13
$8,213,735
+2.5% / +130%
$112,594,173 / 13
Thu$14,738,136
-20.2% / +32.2%
$283,624,210 / 14
$12,784,656
+70.2% / -8.6%
$262,230,583 / 16
$6,468,103
+0.3% / -47.7%
$286,684,032 / 14
$8,402,546
-4% / -49%
$351,086,846 / 14
$11,558,520
+40.7% / +25.9%
$124,152,693 / 14
Fri$25,274,008
+71.5% / +9.4%
$308,898,218 / 15
$10,602,130
-17.1% / -44.6%
$272,832,713 / 17
$9,992,181
+54.5% / -46.1%
$296,676,213 / 15
$12,709,035
+51.3% / -45.3%
$363,795,881 / 15
$11,698,861
+1.2% / -3.5%
$135,851,554 / 15
Sat$25,835,551
+2.2% / -8.6%
$334,733,769 / 16
$10,563,221
-0.4% / -38.8%
$283,395,934 / 18
$14,665,667
+46.8% / -41%
$311,341,880 / 16
$17,191,150
+35.3% / -39.2%
$380,987,031 / 16
$12,726,625
+8.8% / +2.1%
$148,578,179 / 16
Sun$17,381,129
-32.7% / -28.3%
$352,114,898 / 17
$7,015,027
-33.6% / -50.6%
$290,410,961 / 19
$10,557,353
-28% / -44.3%
$321,899,233 / 17
$12,764,034
-25.8% / -46.1%
$393,751,065 / 17
$8,889,792
-30.1% / -18.2%
$157,467,971 / 17
Mon$8,094,554
-53.4% / -58.3%
$360,209,452 / 18
$2,228,471
-68.2% / -77.8%
$292,639,432 / 20
$4,304,211
-59.2% / -45.6%
$326,203,444 / 18
$6,287,429
-50.7% / -40.2%
$400,038,494 / 18
$3,022,271
-66% / -61.9%
$160,490,242 / 18
Tue$7,327,233
-9.5% / -59.9%
$367,536,685 / 19
$2,015,440
-9.6% / -79%
$294,654,872 / 21
$4,220,967
-1.9% / -43.6%
$330,424,411 / 19
$5,661,240
-10% / -41.2%
$405,699,734 / 19
$3,044,822
+0.7% / -62%
$163,535,064 / 19
Wed$6,909,167
-5.7% / -62.6%
$374,445,852 / 20
$1,805,059
-10.4% / -76%
$296,459,931 / 22
$3,709,259
-12.1% / -42.5%
$334,133,670 / 20
$5,077,367
-10.3% / -42%
$410,777,101 / 20
$2,841,351
-6.7% / -65.4%
$166,376,415 / 20
Thu$6,094,445
-11.8% / -58.6%
$380,540,297 / 21
$1,651,907
-8.5% / -87.1%
$298,111,838 / 23
$3,745,513
+1% / -42.1%
$337,879,183 / 21
$4,734,366
-6.8% / -43.7%
$415,511,467 / 21
$2,789,088
-1.8% / -75.9%
$169,165,503 / 21
Fri$13,280,653
+117.9% / -47.5%
$393,820,950 / 22
$3,676,960
+122.6% / -65.3%
$301,788,798 / 24
$5,966,100
+59.3% / -40.3%
$343,845,283 / 22
$7,577,362
+60.1% / -40.4%
$423,088,829 / 22
$7,738,150
+177.4% / -33.9%
$176,903,653 / 22
Sat$21,269,537
+60.2% / -17.7%
$415,090,487 / 23
$6,439,410
+75.1% / -39%
$308,228,208 / 25
$8,388,675
+40.6% / -42.8%
$352,233,958 / 23
$10,502,243
+38.6% / -38.9%
$433,591,072 / 23
$12,758,118
+64.9% / +0.2%
$189,661,771 / 23
Sun$15,756,027
-25.9% / -9.3%
$430,846,514 / 24
$4,092,728
-36.4% / -41.7%
$312,320,936 / 26
$6,251,803
-25.5% / -40.8%
$358,485,761 / 24
$8,037,425
-23.5% / -37%
$441,628,497 / 24
$8,220,042
-35.6% / -7.5%
$197,881,813 / 24
Mon$5,111,193
-67.6% / -36.9%
$435,957,707 / 25
$1,098,097
-73.2% / -50.7%
$313,419,033 / 27
$2,603,407
-58.4% / -39.5%
$361,089,168 / 25
$3,742,198
-53.4% / -40.5%
$445,370,695 / 25
$2,170,146
-73.6% / -28.2%
$200,051,959 / 25
Tue$5,066,734
-0.9% / -30.9%
$441,024,441 / 26
$1,148,156
+4.6% / -43%
$314,567,189 / 28
$2,749,175
+5.6% / -34.9%
$363,838,343 / 26
$3,515,389
-6.1% / -37.9%
$448,886,084 / 26
$2,386,164
+10% / -21.6%
$202,438,123 / 26
Wed$4,743,762
-6.4% / -31.3%
$445,768,203 / 27
$989,404
-13.8% / -45.2%
$315,556,593 / 29
$2,549,037
-7.3% / -31.3%
$366,387,380 / 27
$3,002,302
-14.6% / -40.9%
$451,888,386 / 27
$2,095,782
-12.2% / -26.2%
$204,533,905 / 27
Thu$4,698,802
-0.9% / -22.9%
$450,467,005 / 28
$1,036,039
+4.7% / -37.3%
$316,592,632 / 30
$2,310,578
-9.4% / -38.3%
$368,697,958 / 28
$2,814,471
-6.3% / -40.6%
$454,702,857 / 28
$2,200,465
+5% / -21.1%
$206,734,370 / 28
FriEst. $10,400,000
+121.3% / -21.7%
$460,867,000 / 29
$2,376,259
+129.4% / -35.4%
$318,968,891 / 31
$3,241,311
+40.3% / -45.7%
$371,939,269 / 29
$4,937,955
+75.4% / -34.8%
$459,640,812 / 29
$7,418,385
+237.1% / -4.1%
$214,152,755 / 29
SatEst. $17,250,000
+65.9% / -18.9%
$478,117,000 / 30
$4,614,194
+94.2% / -28.3%
$323,583,085 / 32
$4,482,398
+38.3% / -46.6%
$376,421,667 / 30
$6,708,833
+35.9% / -36.1%
$466,349,645 / 30
$12,357,344
+66.6% / -3.1%
$226,510,099 / 30
SunEst. $15,150,000
-12.2% / -3.8%
$493,267,000 / 31
$3,229,017
-30% / -21.1%
$326,812,102 / 33
$3,277,977
-26.9% / -47.6%
$379,699,644 / 31
$4,732,505
-29.5% / -41.1%
$471,082,150 / 31
$10,235,305
-17.2% / +24.5%
$236,745,404 / 31
MonEst. $11,800,000
-22.1% / +130.9%
$505,067,000 / 32
$2,228,291
-31% / +102.9%
$329,040,393 / 34
$1,574,139
-52% / -39.5%
$381,273,783 / 32
$2,112,206
-55.4% / -43.6%
$473,194,356 / 32
$6,003,510
-41.3% / +176.6%
$242,748,914 / 32

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 2:32 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Lol at Titanic being 260 mil behind! And Avatar is still gaining!

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 2:49 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Shack wrote:
Lol at Titanic being 260 mil behind! And Avatar is still gaining!

:twisted:

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 3:19 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Changing my Avatar forecast to $650-660m domestic.

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 3:35 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Domestic Total:

Mr. Blue - 120m | multiplier - 4.80
LadiesMan - 160m | multiplier - 4.57
Excel - 200m | multiplier - 4.44
Kris K - 210m | multiplier - 3.00
Nebs - 228.1m | multiplier - 3.84
Zingy - 234m | multiplier - 3.60
BK - 235m | multiplier - 3.61
MG Casey - 235m | multiplier - 5.00
Archangel - 240m | multiplier - 3.69
Tuukka - 240m | multiplier - 4.00
2001 - 250m | multiplier - 4.55
Madgez - 260m | multiplier - 4.56
したい - 265m | multiplier - 4.82
Neo_Wolf - 270m | multiplier - 4.35
Mr. Lobotomy - 274.25m | multiplier - 4.27
KC - 275m | multiplier - 4.44
billybobwashere - 285m | multiplier - 5.18
Jon - 295.5m | multiplier - 5.54
Dr. Lecter - 303m | multiplier - 4.97
Magnus - 300m | multiplier - 5.00
The Dark Shape - 310m | multiplier - 4.77
Proud Ryu - 320m | multiplier - 4.06
O - 327.6m | multiplier - 5.60
Telemachos - 340m | multiplier - 4.20
Nazgul - 350m | multiplier - -
Xiayun - 350m | multiplier - 4.61
Justice - 377m | multiplier - 4.08
Chip Munkington - 415m | multiplier - 5.53
Flava'd - 420m | multiplier - 5.45

SolC9 - 459m | multiplier - 4.88
Keyser Soze - 475m | multiplier - 5.28
BennyBlanco - 501m | multiplier - 5.51
Gamaur - 510m | multiplier - 5.74
Rev - 600m | multiplier - 3.53
Mark66 - 625m | multiplier - 8.34
DIB2 - 670m | multiplier - 7.28
BJ - 811m | multiplier - 7.62

Average Domestic Total Prediction: 331.36m

Average Multiplyer: 4.82

only 8 of the first round predictors made it in without having to update in the 2nd round, congrats :good:

don't forget to get your predictions in, especially if you're past prediction was in the red. Those wit a strike through there name have predicted in round 2

BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's Domestic Total: round 2 update #5


Proud Ryu - 450m
SolC9 - 459m
Archangel - 500m
BennyBlanco - 501m
Nazgul - 504m
Telemachos - 510m
BK - 525m
Keyser Soze - 525m
Tyler - 530m
The Dark Shape 540m
Eventine - 541.2m
Captain_Cold - 545m
Xiayun - 550m
LadiesMan217 - 565m
2001 - 565m
Gamaur - 575m

Chip Munkington - 601m
Soagg - 602m
Jmovies - 612m
Revatar - 612.5m
Mesjarch - 620m
Mark66 - 625m
DIB2 - 720m
Lotan - 770m
BJ - 811m
EnKi - 1.025b

Average Domestic Total Prediction: 583.80m

newly submitted are in bold, have fun all.

closed



Predict Avatanic's Domestic Total: round 3 update #3


Chip Munkington - 601m
Soagg - 602m
Revatar - 612.5m
Mesjarch - 620m
Mark66 - 625m
Nazgul - 634m
Xiayun - 635m
Dr. Lecter - 655m
Lilmac - 660m

Proud Ryu - 667m
Telemachos - 710m
Keyser Soze - 711m
DIB2 - 720m
Bryan_Smith - 750m
Jmovies - 750m
Lotan - 770m
BJ - 811m
EnKi - 1.025b


Average Domestic Total Prediction: 713.65m

newly submitted are in bold, have fun all.

Two rounds in and still over half the pack under predict avatanics potential. This time 10 people make it to the next round :rockon: , those in red if you wish submit another prediction, you have until midnight eastern time to get your prediction in.

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 3:45 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ, your original prediction was (probably unrealistically) high, and Avatar couldn't match up. Looking at the first post though, I noticed something...

BJ wrote:
Wk-5: 50.30m - Wknd: 29.98m - 4-Day-Wknd: 40.38m | Total: 505.78m


Avatar caught up to you, and blew past your original prediction for the MLK weekend. :funny:


Mon Jan 18, 2010 4:19 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Avatanic - $700M and 1 cent.


Mon Jan 18, 2010 4:20 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
the lesser evil wrote:
BJ, your original prediction was (probably unrealistically) high, and Avatar couldn't match up. Looking at the first post though, I noticed something...

BJ wrote:
Wk-5: 50.30m - Wknd: 29.98m - 4-Day-Wknd: 40.38m | Total: 505.78m


Avatar caught up to you, and blew past your original prediction for the MLK weekend. :funny:

:thumbsup: all it has to do is mach or beat my projection from this point which is more than possible considering WOM and repeat business is better than I originally expected.

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 4:23 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Mesjarch wrote:
Avatanic - $700M and 1 cent.

pansy

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 4:23 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
if Avatar clears 5m on Tuesday I'm bumping the 700m+ club to 750m+

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 4:24 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
if Avatar clears 5m on Tuesday I'm bumping the 700m+ club to 750m+


:thumbsup:


Mon Jan 18, 2010 4:34 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Prediction for Tuesday:
$4.5 million

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:35 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Mesjarch wrote:
Avatanic - $700M and 1 cent.

pansy


Your club must be full of pansies because last time I checked it was a $700M+ club ;) :P


Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:43 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
if Avatar clears 5m on Tuesday I'm bumping the 700m+ club to 750m+


it won't :P

Tuesday $3.85m

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:59 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Revatar wrote:
BJ wrote:
if Avatar clears 5m on Tuesday I'm bumping the 700m+ club to 750m+


it won't :P

Tuesday $3.85m


*bitchslap*


Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:03 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Revatar wrote:
BJ wrote:
if Avatar clears 5m on Tuesday I'm bumping the 700m+ club to 750m+


it won't :P

Tuesday $3.85m



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Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:06 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Tuesday drop should be better than last week's monday's. -65% would give it $4.13m. Assuming monday figure doesn't go down with actuals.

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:08 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Any way I look at it, $800 million is a lock. Maybe my $1.025 billion prediction is in the high side, but after MLK numbers, above $900 million domestic looks more probable than under... Not to mention the $3billion WW which is looking more a reality than a possibility to me, since Avatar's foreign performance relative to Domestic, compared to Titanic is better.

I wonder... what models do you use to forecast less than $800 million domestic? :P

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:32 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Enki wrote:
Any way I look at it, $800 million is a lock. Maybe my $1.025 billion prediction is in the high side, but after MLK numbers, above $900 million domestic looks more probable than under... Not to mention the $3billion WW which is looking more a reality than a possibility to me, since Avatar's foreign performance relative to Domestic, compared to Titanic is better.

I wonder... what models do you use to forecast less than $800 million domestic? :P

they compare the film to sequels and films that lack a good asscar boost, that's why they're all pansies :sleep:

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:51 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Gamaur wrote:
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On track to pass 800 million.

obliterate 800m more like.

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:01 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Nazgul9 wrote:
Tuesday drop should be better than last week's monday's. -65% would give it $4.13m. Assuming monday figure doesn't go down with actuals.


no worries. this is what notfabio said.

Quote:
Also, doesn't look like AVATAR and CHIPMUNKS were overestimated, they are huge today... {nm}

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:18 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Keyser Söze wrote:
Nazgul9 wrote:
Tuesday drop should be better than last week's monday's. -65% would give it $4.13m. Assuming monday figure doesn't go down with actuals.


no worries. this is what notfabio said.

Quote:
Also, doesn't look like AVATAR and CHIPMUNKS were overestimated, they are huge today... {nm}

where did that quote come from

edit: oh :oops:

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:36 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
sorry . missed the link.

http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=34086

55m+ 4-day for shu.

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Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:44 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Keyser Söze wrote:
sorry . missed the link.

http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=34086

55m+ 4-day for shu.

YAY! 100% in the derby eh.

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