That's right bizzzaaatch! Shrek 4 will top 400m

Sorry about editing out the rest, but I don't see the need to repost what we have already reposted cluttering up the thread..

I just wanted to know if you had any idea how those numbers were calculated. I am not sure everyone reads those numbers as being speculation or an approximate guess, but more like studios reporting admission totals.

Well, it seemed apparent that he simply took the national average for SM, but that wasn't the case with his figure for Avatar. I'd imagine it was based on his knowledge of the portion of the weekend's gross which came from 3D screens and a sampling of what theaters have been charging/what the average percentage the 3D premium has been for Avatar. I've never viewed admission figures for the U.S. as much more than guesswork? Some guesses are more educated than others, I suppose, and in this instance Gitesh likely has access to data which I do not. That's why I was simply posting what he reported, much like people have reported his demographic breakdowns in the past.

My Weekend Analysis


Coming off the biggest weekend ever the box-office was on fire this weekend – and that despite no wide openers. The Top 12 cume of $214.5 million means a 17.5% decrease from the last weekend. Nevertheless, the number is still up a tremendous 63.5% over the same weekend last year when Marley and Me reigned the charts in its second frame. Despite no new films, this weekend still ended up as the 4th-biggest ever. The rankings among the Top 12 barely changed, with #1-#7 remaining exactly the same.




Avatar led the pack in its third weekend with a record-breaking $68.3 million for a running total of $352.1 million after 17 days. At this point, it is pretty obvious that Avatar is here to challenge Titanic for the all-time crown, domestically as well as worldwide. James Cameron obviously did it again! While each day of Avatar’s run has been impressive so far, this third weekend stands out by far. While Avatar could just edge past The Dark Knight for the biggest second-weekend record, its third weekend is over $20 million above the previous record-holder (Spider-Man). It is just an amazing increase. Never has the third weekend record been beaten by such a margin. Not only the gross itself is impressive but also the mere fact that Avatar dropped only 9.7% in its third weekend after dropping less than 5% in its second frame. Its third weekend take alone would get the 8th spot of the biggest opening weekends of 2009! Avatar is here to stay and with a performance as amazing as this one, it’s interesting to look at how it could come to this.

First of all, what’s most amazing about Avatar is that it is performing this well and it is not a sequel. The last comparable film to it would be Spider-Man, another “original” film that was breaking records left and right back in 2002. I think this sequel-less freshness of Avatar helped the film. There’s of course also the 3D ticket premium but it’s not only about the ticket prices. The whole hype of Avatar being something we have never seen before certainly did its part too. The whole effect of Avatar has been based around 3D. Then there’s a relative lack of competition. When Avatar came out the marketplace was dead as far as event pictures like this one are concerned. In its second weekend it faced Sherlock Holmes which is, indeed, a direct competitor but it is also the only one and the holiday season can accommodate more than just one big performer, even if aimed at the same demographics. Avatar’s late marketing (especially during the past eight weeks) has been terrific as well with the movie being literally everywhere in the media. The whole first-film-after-Titanic aspect ignited curiosity as well. But when you look at the whole picture what is basically driving the film at this point is simply the same thing that drove Titanic – terrific word-of-mouth. The 3D ticket premium might explain the overall high grosses but it doesn’t explain the splendid legs so far. After only 17 days on release, Avatar already passed the multiplier of 4.5!

Right now Avatar is tracking $30 million ahead of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead man’s Chest, a movie that Avatar is set to pass within the next couple of weeks. The only movie still tracking ahead of Avatar is actually The Dark Knight which is $42 million ahead of it after the same period of time. Avatar, however, is making up ground fast. Entering January, Avatar will start losing to The Dark Knight in weekdays but more than make up for that with terrific weekend holds. Keep in mind, there are no other 3D movies scheduled to be released in the USA until March. Moreover, there are no big action/effects extravaganzas to be released in January either, so it’ll basically have this field all for itself and Sherlock Holmes. After its tremendous third weekend, it is also set to break the 4th-weekend record and will duke it out with Titanic for the biggest 5th weekend as well. With its fifth frame being the Martin Luther King weekend, it has something going for it there as well. In any case, we can expect Avatar to remain in the Top 10 for quite some time to come. The movie is an undeniable lock for $500 million at this point. It should also cruise past The Dark Knight’s $533 million with relative ease. Avatar is the first movie since 1999’s The Phantom Menace (or at least so was expected) to pose a serious threat to Titanic’s status as the highest-grossing movie ever. I don’t see Avatar finishing with less than $550 million, especially considering its likely Oscar bump. I am also, however, somewhat hesitant to project a $600+ million total as well, even though it is definitely in the realm of possibility. In fact, if it manages to win Best Picture then I’d say it is a lock to pass $600 million. However I am still uncertain that it will win and therefore my conservative projection for its total gross is $560-580 million. Next weekend should be the deciding point. Should it be able to make $40+ million in its third frame, then I’d say it’ll most likely pass Titanic.


Sherlock Holmes settled for the #2 spot again, rebounding somewhat after its mediocre mid-week run which looked to be affected by mixed word-of-mouth. Its $38.4 million weekend take (down 38.5%) shows that it is simply somewhat frontloaded and more of a weekend movie. After only ten days the Guy Ritchie-directed update of the classic character stands at $140.7 million. It’s a terrific number for the flick considering it has to fend off competition from Avatar. It looks to be able to hold its own, though. While its weak internal weekend multiplier during its opening weekend led to speculations whether or not $200 million is achievable for it, this weekend has settled the doubts. Sherlock Holmes should stand at around $170 million by the end of the next weekend and will easily pass $200 million, maybe as soon as by the end of its fifth weekend. What’s working in its advantage is the huge number of R-rated movies in January and a general lack of widely appealing PG-13 movies. That will make Holmes and Avatar must-see movies for quite some time. I see Sherlock Holmes finding its way to $215-225 million.


Things are looking great for Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel as well. Decreasing only 25.1% in its sophomore frame, it made $36.6 million over the weekend for a 12-day total of $157.3 million. It is now around $63 million ahead of where the first Alvin and the Chipmunks film was after 12 days. The gap will shrink during the upcoming weeks but the sequel will keep its lead over the first film. With Sherlock Holmes and Avatar already performing so well, it’s amazing that yet another film is looking to pull in a $200+ million total as well. December 2009 really reminds me of December 2007 which had three huge hits as well. Instead of National Treasure: Book of Secrets, I Am Legend and the first Alvin flick, we’ve got Avatar, Sherlock Holmes and the Alvin sequel. Considering most family-oriented sequels experience sizable drops from the original (like Stuart Little 2, Cheaper by the Dozen 2 and Home Alone 2), Alvin’s performance is even more shocking. It was immensely helped by The Princess and the Frog’s slightly underwhelming performance as the market was wide open for kid-flicks. January will offer competition with films like Tooth Fairy and The Spy Next Door but it should still play well into February and reach a total of $230-240 million, beating the first film’s 217 million.


Also holding on to its position, It’s Complicated occupied the 4th spot this weekend with $18.7 million (down 15.4%). Its running total of $59.1 million looks tiny compared to the Top 3 behemoths but this film is all about legs. WoM for it seems to be quite great and there’s little direct competition for the R-rated romcom. Leap Year and When in Rome are the only other date flicks in January but both appeal rather to young audiences. It’s Complicated, on the other hand, is the only film aiming at adult female audiences for the remainder of the month. That should give it terrific legs in the same way as Something’s Gotta Give played very well throughout all of January back in 2004. It looks like It’s Complicated is heading towards a $110-115 million total. That might not be as big as Nancy Meyers’ What Women Want or Something’s Gotta Give but it’s a good rebound after The Holiday’s disappointing returns. Moreover, this movie will be very big overseas so that $300+ million might still happen for it worldwide.


The Blind Side’s impressively leggy run goes on. In its seventh frame, the pic took in $12.7 million, rising 10.3% from its last weekend. That brings its total gross to an astounding $209.1 million. The Blind Side is the first movie since Taken to spend seven weeks in the Top 5 and that despite a #2 opening. Moreover, The Blind Side’s 7th weekend is actually the fourth-biggest 7th-weekend gross ever, behind only Titanic, Home Alone and The Passion of the Christ (the latter having the Easter weekend advantage). It’s also already the 3rd-biggest movie ever that never hit #1, behind Alvin and the Chipmunks and My Big Fat Greek Wedding and it has a good shot at becoming the biggest eventually. However, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel will be tough competition for that. In any case, The Blind Side is an amazing WoM-hit. Its multiplier to date is already at 6.1 and there are no signs of slowing down. Had it not been for Avatar overshadowing everything, this Sandra Bullock starrer would be the box-office story of the holiday season. It’ll wind up with a total gross of $240-245 million albeit an Oscar win for Sandra Bullock might give it enough of a push to pass $250 million. A truly amazing performance.


Up in the Air remained at #6 and ended up being the only opener/expander from the last weekend not to drop this frame. Taking in $11.4 million it increasing 0.7%, putting its total gross at $45 million after 12 days of wide release. These early signs are great indicators of very good WoM as well as awards-influenced staying power. I expect Up in the Air to be the film that will benefit the most from the Oscar buzz as, aside from Avatar, it is the only other film currently in release with an actually solid chance to win Best Picture at the Oscars. George Clooney is rather hit/miss at the box-office with his biggest success stories being the Ocean’s films as well as The Perfect Storm. All of those films were carried by either a big ensemble cast or special effects and action. Up in the Air will be the first film for Clooney to cross $100 million that he carried completely on his shoulders. With the Oscars still ahead it’ll keep building buzz and should display good legs until March. A potential Best Picture win would give it yet another big bump. Right now it is heading towards $110-115 million but with a BP win in the bag, it’ll likely pass $125 million as well.


The Princess and the Frog finally caught a break this weekend after two disappointing holds in a row. Taking in $10 million over the three-day frame, the hand-drawn Disney title increased 11.2% over its last weekend, bringing its total to $86.1 million. The film’s performance so far might not have been what Disney hoped for but it is solid enough to declare 2D animation still alive, even though it won’t start another big wave of 2D animated flicks. There are no animated films to contend with throughout all of January and February which might help its late legs but competition will eat its screens and theatres. The film will crawl to a $109 million total when all is said and done.


Rising a spot to #8, Did You Hear About the Morgans? is struggling to make up for its sub-par start two weeks ago. Its $5.2 million weekend represents a rise of 4% over its previous frame and it brought its running total to $25.6 million after 17 days. That’s nothing to write home about for the $58-million flick but at least the legs are quite solid. However, Morgans will face tough competition from Leap Year and When in Rome during the next few weeks as both are aiming at the same demographics as Morgans. It’ll end up with a multiplier of over 5 and a total gross of $36 million.


Down to #9 is one of the biggest disappointments of the holiday season. Weinsteins’ baity musical Nine made $4.3 million (down 22.1%) over the weekend for a $14 million total after ten days in wide release. The reviews for the musical are mediocre at best and right now it is actually uncertain whether it’ll wind up with a Best Picture nomination. Either way, this is not another Chicago and not even another Sweeney Todd. At this point it’ll struggle to beat Rent’s $29 million total and won’t end up with much more than $30 million in the bag – and that provided it actually gets a Best Picture nomination.


Thanks to the holiday weeks, Invictus is actually making up for its initially abysmal performance and it managed to increase by 2.1% for $4.1 million and a §0.8 million total. While it is still far away from breaking even (the budget is $60 million) it is at least not looking as embarrassing as initially feared. With the likely Oscar bump ahead this will have steady legs throughout January and February, getting to $45 million by the end of its run.


Remaining at #11, The Twilight Saga: New Moon actually registered the best increase within the Top 12, rising by 18.3% as it added $3.6 million to its gross, bringing its total to $287.8 million after seven weeks. It’s going to top out with $296 million unless Summit decides to give it a really strong push to pass $300 million.


Brothers wrapped up the Top 12 as it found its way back into it with an $1.3 million weekend (up 6.6%), bringing its total to an acceptable $27.5 million. It should be able to scratch at $30 million by the end of its run.


Nice increase for 2012 which should finish with $165 million domestically and around $760 million worldwide.


Crazy Heart and A Single Man are both still doing well in limited release but it's about time to go wider...

your first worthy assessment of avatanic.

I am so rooting for Avatanic to do $50+M next weekend. The following weekend $40+

Thanks, Mr. Rockwell : )

Maybe it should be Dr. Lectvatar from now