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 The Avatar Prediction|Tracking Thread/ (Aug. 27 re-release) 
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Killing With Kindness
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Archangel wrote:
What's the prediction for the Monday drop?

55%-68% drop, should easily drop again on tuesday because some people are still off on monday but not tuesday.

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 9:36 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
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On the conservative side, after the 3rd weekend sub-$80 million fiasco :hahaha: , Avatanic is still on track to pass $900 million domestic ;)

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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's Sunday


Keyser Soze - 21.5m -18%
BJs Prediction: 20.85 -19%
Jmovies - 20.0m -22%
Soagg - 19.8m -23%
Eventine - 19.1m -26%
Chip Munkington - 19.0m -26%
Revatar - 18.99m -26%


Average: 19.89m -23%

2 hours


$20.2 M


Sun Jan 03, 2010 9:41 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
19.45

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:01 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
mdana wrote:
19.45

nice prediction, BJ likes :thumbsup:

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:05 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's Sunday


Keyser Soze - 21.5m -18%
BJs Prediction: 20.85 -19%
LadiesMan217 - 20.2m -21%
Jmovies - 20.0m -22%
Soagg - 19.8m -23%
Mdana - 19.45m -24%
Eventine - 19.1m -26%
Chip Munkington - 19.0m -26%
Revatar - 18.99m -26%


Average: 19.88m -22%

closed

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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Domestic Total:

Mr. Blue - 120m | multiplier - 4.80
LadiesMan - 160m | multiplier - 4.57
Excel - 200m | multiplier - 4.44
Kris K - 210m | multiplier - 3.00
Nebs - 228.1m | multiplier - 3.84
Zingy - 234m | multiplier - 3.60
BK - 235m | multiplier - 3.61
MG Casey - 235m | multiplier - 5.00
Archangel - 240m | multiplier - 3.69
Tuukka - 240m | multiplier - 4.00
2001 - 250m | multiplier - 4.55
Madgez - 260m | multiplier - 4.56
したい - 265m | multiplier - 4.82
Neo_Wolf - 270m | multiplier - 4.35
Mr. Lobotomy - 274.25m | multiplier - 4.27
KC - 275m | multiplier - 4.44
billybobwashere - 285m | multiplier - 5.18
Jon - 295.5m | multiplier - 5.54
Dr. Lecter - 303m | multiplier - 4.97
Magnus - 300m | multiplier - 5.00
The Dark Shape - 310m | multiplier - 4.77
Proud Ryu - 320m | multiplier - 4.06
O - 327.6m | multiplier - 5.60
Telemachos - 340m | multiplier - 4.20
Nazgul - 350m | multiplier - -
Xiayun - 350m | multiplier - 4.61
Justice - 377m | multiplier - 4.08
Chip Munkington - 415m | multiplier - 5.53
Flava'd - 420m | multiplier - 5.45

SolC9 - 459m | multiplier - 4.88
Keyser Soze - 475m | multiplier - 5.28
BennyBlanco - 501m | multiplier - 5.51
Gamaur - 510m | multiplier - 5.74
Rev - 600m | multiplier - 3.53
Mark66 - 625m | multiplier - 8.34
DIB2 - 670m | multiplier - 7.28
BJ - 811m | multiplier - 7.62

Average Domestic Total Prediction: 331.36m

Average Multiplyer: 4.82

only 8 of the first round predictors made it in without having to update in the 2nd round, congrats :good:

don't forget to get your predictions in, especially if you're past prediction was in the red. Those wit a strike through there name have predicted in round 2

BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's Domestic Total: round 2 update #5


Proud Ryu - 450m
SolC9 - 459m
Archangel - 500m
BennyBlanco - 501m
Nazgul - 504m
Telemachos - 510m
BK - 525m
Keyser Soze - 525m
Tyler - 530m
The Dark Shape 540m
Eventine - 541.2m
Captain_Cold - 545m
Xiayun - 550m
LadiesMan217 - 565m
2001 - 565m
Gamaur - 575m
Chip Munkington - 601m
Soagg - 602m
Jmovies - 612m
Revatar - 612.5m
Mesjarch - 620m
Mark66 - 625m
DIB2 - 720m
Lotan - 770m
BJ - 811m
EnKi - 1.025b

Average Domestic Total Prediction: 583.80m

newly submitted are in bold, have fun all.

closed


if avatar makes over 50m nest wknd I will make a third and last round that will probably end the wk of asscar nominations

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:27 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Im calling for an 8m+ monday.

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:28 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's Sunday


Keyser Soze - 21.5m -18%
BJs Prediction: 20.85 -19%
LadiesMan217 - 20.2m -21%
Jmovies - 20.0m -22%
Soagg - 19.8m -23%
Mdana - 19.45m -24%
Eventine - 19.1m -26%
Chip Munkington - 19.0m -26%
Revatar - 18.99m -26%


Average: 19.88m -22%

closed


Late tracking at my theaters no sell outs at one theater (the one I saw Avatar) where it is not doing as well (compared to the nation) out of 13 showings. This theater is the only one I am monitoring that still has 2d with three showings. Three sell-outs each at two theaters with 12 and 10 showings, but I didn't check for earlier showings at these theaters (1st checked around 5 pm EST). Most likely quite a few more at these two theaters, I just didn't check in time. First theater dropped late showing from Saturday on Sunday. Theater with 12 showings dropped two (they had Alvin playing at 12:50 am 1/3/10 :noway:), and 10 showing theater dropped one.

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:32 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
ew, why is it such a hard sell in your area, anchorage has been selling out like mad, even today, looks to go 10 for 10 again if it can sell out the last wk showings.

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:34 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Monday- $10.1 mil

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:53 am
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Hey I predicted 20M on Sunday! Why am I not on the list! :mad:


Mon Jan 04, 2010 12:38 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Mesjarch wrote:
Hey I predicted 20M on Sunday! Why am I not on the list! :mad:

:oops:

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 2:06 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BOM Update:

Avatar

Reader Rating: A- (2,992 votes)

A's: 2,550 - 85.2%
B's: 230 - 7.7%
C's: 61 - 2.0%
D's: 32 - 1.1%
F's: 119 - 4.0%

Top Rated #2 top rated from readers

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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Yahoo Update:

Avatar

Yahoo Users: A (28,660 ratings) / A- from critics

#22 Top rated

User reviews for Avatar

enjoy :shades:

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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
RT Update:

Avatar

Reviews: 235
Fresh/Rotten: 195 Fresh /40 Rotten Certified Fresh
83% Fresh / 17% Rotten
Average Rating: 7.4 / 10

Cream of the Crop
Reviews: 34
Fresh/Rotten: 32 Fresh / 2 Rotten
94% Fresh / 6% Rotten
Average Rating: 7.6 / 10

Its got 90% from the users with 6858 fresh and 688 rotten, average grade is 8.6

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 2:41 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
IMDB Update:

Avatar

User Rating: 8.7/10 (109,665 votes)

User Ratings for Avatar

User Comments for Avatar

IMDB top 250 #28 on top 250

External Reviews
peaked at #21 :happy:

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 2:42 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
did it go down with actuals? ERC has avatar at 1.01B

Quote:
Exhibitor Relations "Avatar" ($1.01 bil) is only the fifth film to gross $1 billion worldwide at the box office. The others: "Titanic" ($1.8 bil), "LOTR: Return of the King" ($1.1 bil), "PofC: Dead Man's Chest" ($1.06 bil), "The Dark Knight" ($1.00 bil). When all is said and done, only James Cameron's "Titanic" has a chance of staying afl...oat in the box office tsunami that is Fox's "Avatar."See More
21 minutes ago

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 2:51 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Keyser Söze wrote:
did it go down with actuals? ERC has avatar at 1.01B

Quote:
Exhibitor Relations "Avatar" ($1.01 bil) is only the fifth film to gross $1 billion worldwide at the box office. The others: "Titanic" ($1.8 bil), "LOTR: Return of the King" ($1.1 bil), "PofC: Dead Man's Chest" ($1.06 bil), "The Dark Knight" ($1.00 bil). When all is said and done, only James Cameron's "Titanic" has a chance of staying afl...oat in the box office tsunami that is Fox's "Avatar."See More
21 minutes ago

there is no indication of it going down from what is reported there

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
i thought actual number was 1.022B yesterday from variety. We will anyway know in next couple of hours.

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 3:04 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Keyser Söze wrote:
i thought actual number was 1.022B yesterday from variety. We will anyway know in next couple of hours.

they might be using BOM as there source instead of variety

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Keyser Söze wrote:
i thought actual number was 1.022B yesterday from variety. We will anyway know in next couple of hours.

they might be using BOM as there source instead of variety


erc uses rentrak. I doubt they would use BOM as a data source. Variety may be using nielson edi. I thought they merged(edi and rentrak) but we still might get 2 versions.

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Even Brandon Gray can't say anything bad about this film. :)


Mon Jan 04, 2010 3:25 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
One sell-out, a 7:10 showing, out of all three theaters. Total of two early morning shows dropped.

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Mon Jan 04, 2010 4:14 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatanic's 3rd Wknd


EnKi - 81.5m +7%
BJs Prediction: 70.90m -6%
Mark66 - 68.055m -10%
Jmovies - 68m -10%
Captain_Cold - 68m -10%
Soagg - 66.9m -11%
BennyBlanco - 66.5m -12%
Xiayun - 64.5m -15%
DIB2 - 64.5m -15%
Eventine 63.8m -15%
LadiesMan217 - 64.3m -15%
MG Casey - 64m -15%
Keyser Soze - 62m -18%
Flava'd - 62m -18%
2001 - 61m -19%
Gamaur - 61m -19%
Mesjarch - 60.5m -19%
Solas - 60.5m -19%
Lotan - 60.0m -20%
Revatar - 58.67m -22%
Telemachos - 57m -24%
Chip Munkington - 56.8m -24%


~Average: 63.59m -15%

Mark66 with the third highest posted prediction is the wknd3 winner, congrats :D

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