Nice to see UP IN THE AIR increase. Best movie of the year!

Also nice to see IT'S COMPLICATED hold well, and the increases for the limited release movies (THE YOUNG VICTORIA, A SINGLE MAN, CRAZY HEART, etc...).

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

BOM IN - Avatar at 25.8m and there friday estimate us up from yesterday

YAY

fuck you to holmes

$70+M for 3rd weekend fo sho

pretty insane eh, in every analysis I ever did for the film, even though I always ended up north of 700m I never predicted a 70m+ third wknd, I never considered it to be a possibility.

Although Avatar's grosses are obviously inflated to an extent by 3D/Imax prices in relation to other blockbuster's grosses, one of the things that still impresses me is the amount of money that is being made on a PTA basis (despite the obvious inflation). Avatar is playing in about 800 to 1000 less theatres than most blockbusters today. For example, The Dark Knight played in over 900 more theatres. Still, Avatar managed the largest 2nd and 3rd weekend grosses ever. As a result, Avatar's third weekend PTA is nearly double that of The Dark Knight's third weekend PTA. I think that is at least somewhat impressive.

Peace,
Mike

You also have to consider that Avatar 3D at alot of places is only about 4-5 showings a day with another 3-5 or 8-10 2D showings in a day. That is mighty impressive.

BOG says Avatar sold approximately 8.4m tickets over the weekend as compared to the 7.8m SM sold in its 3rd weekend. That would mean an average ticket price of $8.13 for Avatar.

Check the post above you to see how wrong you are about average ticket price and attendence.

I'm just bracing for what could be gigantic tallies for Shrek 4 and Toy Story 3.

If Shrek 4 has the same admissions as Shrek 3, adjusted for inflation and with a 3D premium of 30% its total would be: $473.2 m

If Toy Story 3 has the same admissions as Toy Story 2, adjusted for inflation and with a 3D premium of 30%, its total would be: $488.22 m

Shrek could lose 26% of its audience from the last film and still be headed for $350 m +!

On top of Iron Man, which I could see getting to $450 m, we could potentially see 3 $400 m films in just 7 weeks time!

If Toy Story 3 doesn't break 400m it WILL be disappointing.
If Shrek doesn't break 300m it will be a bloody bomb.

If you took 7.46 + 10.46 / 2 = 8. 96

So it's not that off and I don't think at this point you can actually say it's only 8.14 with records of prices up in the ranges of 12.

I think they not better than you.

You're adding these premiums without considering the people who will stay away because of the higher ticket prices.

It's not like I said fuck you idiots I'm right all the motherfucking time.

I gave some numbers that people have purported as the ticket price for 2009.

Interesting.

The trend with sequels -- especially traditional sequels that aren't part of a unifying story arc -- is to open bigger but have weaker legs than the originals. I don't see that changing for any of the movies you mentioned.

3D will boost them, but unless they're special films that develop super WOM, I don't see them reaching the numbers you're mentioning (TS3 might have the best chance, since Pixar is so good at crafting solid stories).

Those are best case scenarios. We don't have enough stats on 3D yet to know how many people don't see a film because of the premium price.

The main audience for Shrek 4 will likely see it with or without premium prices imo. If there are no family films around, they will see what is offered to them, even at a premium price. As Up showed, premium ticket prices can hugely balloon animated films box office grosses. I don't see how Shrek 4 isn't going to benefit in some way...

That is just guess work on BOG's part and he does not have the exact ticket price for Avatar or Spiderman. He is just guesstimating and it is a very bad guess. BK's $9.48 is most likely much closer to the actual avg. ticket price for Avatar.

His SM #s are just the ticket price avg in 2002, which is also not accurate for estimating ticket sales on the third week in May 2002.

Studios have the actual ticket sales information, but they will never release them. This is due to the free publicity they can generate constantly on puff shows like ET or even "hard" news outlets like CNN from constantly "record breaking" movies, weekends, openings, etc. So much nicer than to have "Avatar Challenging B.O. Champ Titanic", than "Another Movie Fails to Come Anywhere Near GWTW, What's Wrong with Hollywood?".

Avatar is not selling for less than a dollar more than the reported avg. ticket price for 2009. Actually no movie will the first weeks of its run because group rate ticket sales are not valid or they are at a higher price than normal. Also, in the case of Avatar its 3D percentage of total sales continuously increases. Many screens that had it on 2D have been dropped or severely limited and 3D showings have increased since the OW.

% Avatar's 3D sales accounted for overall gross:

OW-71.4%
2nd Weekend-76.6%
3rd Weekend -80%??

Does it really make sense if the Avg ticket price for 2009 is projected to be $7.40-7.50, that Avatar with 80% of its sales being 3D is only getting $0.60-0.70 more, when the cost at a minimimum is $2.00 more and more likely close to $3.00 on avg. for 3D?

The blind acceptance of numbers that are highly questionable and easily refuted is becoming nauseating.

It might well have lost that % without pricing out any patrons.

Shrek 3 lost 34% adjusted for inflation in comparison to Shrek 2.

Will be interesting for sure.

Just reporting what he said and what that statement would implicate.

Ok, but you are not a stenographer. You need to state you either question that number, or it is implicit you agree with the statement.

I don't see any possible way for Drek4 to pull in less than 400m, Up and MVA had 55%-60% of their tickets sell in 3-D simply matching that would be over 380m with drek3 ticket sales, than we consider this is a sequel that is marketed as the final insallment in the franchise, think a 500m+ gross could be reached with ease, especially considering the front loaded trend that shrek3 displayed, the film could pull in a ton of BO $$ before TS3 takes its 3-D theaters.

Unless I know the methodology or information he used in arriving at that figure, I can neither conclusively vouch for nor repudiate it. Admission figures in the U.S. always have been, by and large, based on speculation. That's what's implicit when reporting these figures.