Amazing!

Should stay number for one more weekend for sure...


Overseas till Feb.

Awevatarazing!

Hopefully it is underestimated just like the last two weekends...

Cool. My initial predictions were 66.9M. I guessed I missed this one as well darn Avatar

No.1 next weekend is a sure thing. It will probably stay above $40m, and even if it doesn't, none of the openers are going to gross over $30m to challenge it.

That number/hold really is just insane.

just twitter avatar sold out and see so many posts talking about early sellouts on sunday. may be avatar would beat the estimates again.

http://twitter.com/#search?q=avatar%20sold%20out

I can't see Avatar NOT beating Titanic if things go as they should with it's awards and campaigning. Simply incredible box office performance!

Just need 1.7m more with actuals

Looking at the estimates it's a given that the movies behaved much more like in 1993 than 1999...

At this rate, it can stay above 50m since I don't see it dropping anywhere over 30%.

following twitter it seems sellouts are just crazy. i am thinking avatar would again beat the trend and have a very small drop. victory soagg.

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend20.htm

# Title Jan 1 - 3 Dec 25 - 27 % Chg. Theaters Weeks AVG Cumulative Distributor

1 Avatar $ 68,300,000 $ 75,617,133 -9.7 3,461 3 $ 19,734 $ 352,111,000 Fox
2 Sherlock Holmes 38,385,000 62,390,000 -38.5 3,626 2 10,586 140,675,000 Warner Bros.
3 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 36,600,000 48,875,415 -25.1 3,747 2 9,768 157,345,000 Fox
4 It's Complicated 18,700,000 22,100,820 -15.4 2,897 2 6,455 59,105,000 Universal
5 The Blind Side 12,650,000 11,470,000 10.3 2,926 7 4,323 209,052,000 Warner Bros.
6 Up in the Air 11,350,000 11,275,000 0.7 1,895 5 5,989 45,020,000 Paramount
7 The Princess and the Frog 10,013,000 9,004,610 11.2 3,328 6 3,009 86,085,000 Buena Vista
8 Did You Hear About the Morgans? 5,200,000 5,000,143 4.0 2,718 3 1,913 25,600,000 Sony
9 Nine 4,250,000 5,452,513 -22.1 1,412 3 3,010 14,047,000 Weinstein Co.
10 Invictus 4,130,000 4,045,000 2.1 2,170 4 1,903 30,755,000 Warner Bros.


Top 5 $ 174,635,000 $ 220,453,368 -20.8
Top 10 209,578,000 255,230,634 -17.9

Top 10 vs. 2009 209,578,000 123,210,617 70.1
Top 10 vs. 2008 209,578,000 112,470,805 86.3

Below the Top 10:


Brothers 1,284,000 1,210,172 6.1 858 5 1,497 27,510,000 Lionsgate
2012 1,100,000 994,494 10.6 800 6 1,375 163,500,000 Sony
Precious 949,000 865,083 9.7 629 8 1,509 43,520,000 Lionsgate
The Young Victoria (US only) 894,000 645,315 38.5 165 3 5,418 2,454,000 Apparition
Old Dogs 733,000 652,737 12.3 620 6 1,182 47,259,000 Buena Vista
The Road 560,000 449,066 24.7 306 5 1,830 6,791,000 Weinstein Co.
A Christmas Carol 540,000 1,292,155 -58.2 981 9 550 137,429,000 Buena Vista
A Single Man 508,000 352,652 44.1 46 4 11,043 1,730,000 Weinstein Co.
Fantastic Mr. Fox 482,000 344,592 39.9 271 8 1,779 19,126,000 Fox
Crazy Heart 236,000 159,850 47.6 12 3 19,667 716,000 Fox Searchlight
The Lovely Bones 65,000 42,000 54.8 3 4 21,667 383,000 Paramount

updated 1st post.

munk,
can you update the calculator.

I would love to have that not because of that conversation but because I want Avatar to have that number. Thanks though

"this is great"

"outstanding"

My weekend analysis

1 Avatar - Simply outstanding for Avatar! It's gotten to $350 m + already off of a $68 m third weekend. It has plenty of steam left. It only needs a 4.644 multiplier to top Titanic now. The fourth weekend will be the most critical for this film. That will inevitably be a huge indicator on its total gross.

But as I have said before, I'm more impressed with Avatar's legs than I am its total box office.

1st weekend: $77.0 m
2nd weekend: $75.6 m -1.8%
3rd weekend: $68.3 m -9.6%

Avatar will now have seen two back to back drops under 10%. That's simply unbelievable. It is now Fox's fourth bigggest film ever, behind SW Ep 1, 3 and 4. It's the fifteenth biggest film of all time now, and should make it to the top 10 very soon. It will be the 10th film to get to $400 m, making the entire top ten list full of $400 m + grossers.

I still don't feel confident enough right now to predict an absolute final gross for this, but I do think its headed for $550 m +. The fourth weekend hold is critical, and would help to decide if its headed for $600 m +, or $650 m +, etc.

2 Sherlock Holmes - Solid hold though nothing spectacular considering the holds of all of the other films. Still, this is at $140.7 m already, and it would need a 2.54 multiplier to get to $200 m. I think it can get there now, simply because it will get a cushion on MLK weekend with a long weekend, which should be just enough of a push to get there. It just had a $38.5 m 2nd weekend, and is only $59.3 m away from $200 m. I'll give it $204 m for now.

3 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel - Great hold for Alvin considering how inflated last weekend was for it. A great recovery from its Friday number as well, though I didn't think it would get a huge increase on New Year's Day considering the first film didn't either. It is all but certain to get to $200 m, and I still think it has a chance at $250 m, though that depends on whether or not The Tooth Fairy overperforms. It needs a 3.53 multiplier for the rest of its run to get to $250 m. I think its getting there. $250 m total.

4 It's Complicated - A fantastic hold! Only a 15% drop. I still think this has a chance at $150 m though. It would need a 4.86 multiplier to get there. Regardless, $140 m + looks quite possible! Meryl Streep had a fantastic decade box office wise!

5 The Blind Side - Absolutely phenomenal weekend yet again. 7 weekends above $10 m! It's the fourth biggest seventh weekend of all time! The Blind Side is having perhaps the best box office run of the decade, as it will manage a nearly $250 m box office gross, when it opened on the same day as New Moon, which saw the biggest box office opening day of all time! Both have huge female appeal as well. The Blind Side needs a 4.24 multiplier to get to $250 m, and I still think its getting there. It has MLK weekend, football playoffs, and Oscar buzz to keep it going until March imo. It won't be getting another weekend above $10 m in all likeliness, but it certainly isn't going anywhere either. It's headed for a 7 + multiplier! Simply unbelievable!

6 Up in the Air - Another great weekend! This is all but certain to do $100 m +, though how dominant it is at the Oscars will tell us if it can get to $150 m. I'm going to give it $125 m for now, though this could change quite a bit based on its Oscar nods/wins.

7 The Princess and the Frog - Finally an overall great weekend for The Princess and the Frog. Better late than never! It was clearly lost in the shuffle with Alvin last weekend, which surprisingly had a larger female audience than male (60%), so that clearly hurt TPATF. Regardless, its now at an $86 m total, and with MLK weekend offering a box office cushion two weekends from now for most holdovers, its headed for $130 m or so.

8 Did You Hear About the Morgans? - Solid increase, though with a $26 m total, this really can't be seen as a success. Though it looks headed for a 5.5 + multiplier, so it saw solid legs at least. I'll give it $38 m or so...

9 Nine - Very, very underwhelming performance. It has yet to pass $15 m despite its cast, and the fact tha it has already opened wide. Could recover with the Oscars, but really not by much. It's total is highly dependent on Oscar nods. $25 m + is at least assured...

10 Invictus - Three weekends in a row in the $4 m range. It still looks headed for a $50 m total, though it certainly could have done much better. Not terrible though, and seems to be following a Blood Diamond like run.

Top 10 : The top 10 is at $209.6 m, or nearly 70.1% above last year. Certainly a strong way to start the year!

Outside the top 10:

The Twilight Saga: New Moon - It may have had one of the fastest box office runs ever, but its hard to find any fault in this film's box office when it went from nearly $192 m to $288 m between films. The audience for the franchise grew significantly. That is a very solid bump up for New Moon, though its come so late. New Moon needs a 4.39 multiplier for the rest of its run to get to $300 m, though it looks like it will fall short. MLK weekend, if it can hold onto enough theaters, could give it a cushion though, in order to get there. I'm seeing $297 m, though I think it will get a push by Summit to $300 m. For a smaller studio, $300 m mean a lot!

2012 - Great total! On its way to $165 m and a huge overseas gross of $600 m +...

A Christmas Carol - A very boring box office run. Headed for just under $140 m.

The Lovely Bones - Good increase. I'm a bit interested in seeing if Paramount can save this one, though they probably will have some trouble on that. An underperforming January slate would help them out.

Avatar is really going beyond what anyone expected with these legs. It's still funny how it's vaguely reminiscent of how Titanic kept surprising people this same time of year 11 years ago.

Acceptable holds for Sherlock and Alvin, especially considering how massive they were to begin with. $200M and $225M could be in reach, respectively.

Sparkling 15% drop for It's Complicated, which seems to benefiting from strong word-of-mouth. $100M seems like a certainty and it could challenge the $124M total of Something's Gotta Give. Awesome for Meryl.

The Blind Side, as usual, is an unstoppable force. $12.7M in its seventh weekend? LOL to me this is the biggest surprise of the year, and the title of the film is probably one of the more apt I can recall.

Up in the Air is putting up some excellent numbers. If it maintains/gains Oscar traction, $100M or higher could definitely be in the cards. The Princess and the Frog finally perked up a bit. It won't have mind-blowing numbers, but $110-115M will be a pretty good total for a film with 2D animation that had such intense competition.

Morgans' legs are saving it from being a complete bomb, although it will probably end up settling for less than $40M. Good for Invictus although a huge total will also be elusive.

Nine's performance is alarming. I just can't imagine the Academy still nominating this with the poor critical reception and the box office failure?

originally posted some time summer 2009

Opening Day: 40.77m
2nd Day: 35.44m -13%
Opening Wknd: 106.32m - Fri: 40.77m / Sat: 35.44m -13% / Sun: 30.11m -15%
4-Day: 123.17m - Mon: 16.85m -44%
5-Day: 141.22m - Tue: 18.05m +7%
6-Day: 157.33m - Wed: 16.11m -10%
Opening Wk: 167.77m - Thur: 10.44m -35%
2nd Wknd: 81.64m -23% - Fri: 20.99m +100% / Sat: 31.66m +50% / Sun: 28.99m -8%
11-Day: 270.07m - Mon: 20.66m -28%
12-Day: 286.40m - Tue: 16.33m -20%
13-Day: 299.95m - Wed: 13.55m -16%
2nd Wk: 312.94m - Thur: 12.99m -4%
3rd Wknd: 62.43m -23% - Fri: 26.00m +100% / Sat: 22.10m -15% / Sun: 14.33m -35%
Wk-1: 167.77m - Wknd: 106.32m | Total: 167.77m
Wk-2: 145.17m - Wknd: 81.64m | Total: 312.94m
Wk-3: 84.38m - Wknd: 62.43m | Total: 397.33m
Wk-4: 58.15m - Wknd: 41.80m | Total: 455.48m
Wk-5: 50.30m - Wknd: 29.98m - 4-Day-Wknd: 40.38m | Total: 505.78m
Wk-6: 32.95m - Wknd: 22.75m | Total: 538.73m
Wk-7: 28.90m - Wknd: 18.95m | Total: 567.63m
Wk-8: 28.90m - Wknd: 20.05m | Total: 596.53m
Wk-9: 34.80m - Wknd: 23.10m - 4-Day-Wknd: 28.45m | Total: 631.33m
Wk-10: 26.75m - Wknd: 18.70m | Total: 658.08m
Wk-11: 25.80m - Wknd: 18.00m | Total: 683.88m
Wk-12: 27.00m - Wknd: 18.00m | Total: 710.88m
Wk-13: 33.50m - Wknd: 25.20m - | Total: 744.38m
Wk-14: 22.95m - Wknd: 16.55m | Total: 767.33m
Wk-15: 14.90m - Wknd: 10.45m | Total: 782.23m
Wk-16: 11.20m - Wknd: 6.75m | Total: 793.43m
Wk-17: 7.50m - Wknd: 5.05m | Total: 800.93m
Wk-18: 4.40m - Wknd: 3.25m | Total: 805.33m
Wk-19: 2.75m - Wknd: 2.05m | Total: 808.08m
Wk-20: 1.50m - Wknd: 1.10m | Total: 809.58m
Wk-21: .70m - Wknd: .50m | Total: 810.28m
Wk-22: .35m - Wknd: .25m | Total: 810.63m
Money Made After Wk-22: ~1m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 35
Wks at #1: 6 (consecutive)
Days over 1m 115 (consecutive)
Days to 50m: 2-Days - 76.21m
Days to 100m: 3-Days - 106.32m
Days to 150m: 6-Days - 157.33m
Days to 200m: 9-Days - 220.42m
Days to 250m: 11-Days - 270.07m
Days to 300m: 14-Days - 312.94m
Days to 350m: 16-Days - 361.04m
Days to 400m: 22-Days - 407.37m
Days to 450m: 27-Days - 452.22m
Days to 500m: 33-Days - 500.00m
Days to 550m: 44-Days - 551.90m
Days to 600m: 57-Days - 600.50m
Days to 650m: 66-Days - 650.00m
Days to 700m: 80-Days - 701.85m
Days to 750m: 93-Days - 755.80m
Days to 800m: 118-Days - 800.00m
Domestic Total: 811m
International Total: 1,190b
World Wide Total: 2b

Multiplyer: 7.62

LOL ok maybe beyond what us normal folk expected