I wonder what Avatar would've pulled without Holmes. $24.9 million worth of direct competition has to mean something.

Well, as I said, Sherlock Holmes just butchered all preceding records. Keep in mind, Ali has been holding the Christmas Day opening record foir seven years until it was broken by Marley & Me with $14.3 million. Now Holmes made more than $10 million on top of that, also topping Meet the Fockers as the biggest Christmas Day grosser overall. The internal weekend multiplier won't be that great, though but it won't be terrible either. I see $68-72 million for the weekend. That'll most likely make it the biggest #2 opener ever, above The Day After Tomorrow (and if not then it'll be very close behind it). Overall WoM will be okay but I doubt it will be very strong. However January lacks a lot of competition so that even okay WoM might carry it to $200 million but certainly not more than that.


Avatar is doing amazing numbers still, down only 12.2% from the last weekend. The fact that it is in its sophomore weekend and is over 150 minutes long will helps its IM and will put it above Holmes on Saturday and Sunday. Therefore, it'll handily wwin the weekend with $72-76 million. It certainly has a good shot at the biggest second weekend ever but it's not a given yet. What is a given, however, is a $350+ million total for it and $400 million looks more likely with each new day as well.


Despite its #3 spot, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Sqeuakquel is no slouch either and should be heading towards a $48-52 million weekend. It'll be close between this and the first Alvin flick for the bigger total as I see the sequel ending up with $200-215 million as well. It has a great chance to top Sherlock Holmes' total as well. We won't see the end of this franchise for a long long time...


It's Complicated might have been overshadowed by the three biggies this weekend but its $7.1 million Friday will give it a $22-23 million opening weekend, the biggest for Nancy Meyers since What Women Want back in 2000. Considering it is rated R that is a very good number and despite mixed reviews it should garner good WoM and prove to be very leggy. With Something's Gotta Give's multiplier it'll reach $170+ million, with What Women Want's multiplier over $120 million which is where I think it is heading in any case. There will be no big competition for women until maybe When in Rome (I don't expect big things from Leap Year).


Up in the Air did well in its expansion and should bring in around $11.5-12.5 million over the weekend. It'll certainly have a very long run ahead of itself and should paly well into March. The Oscar push should help it a lot.


The Blind Side is still doing tremendous numbers. It is up 5.9% from its last Friday and should stand at around $185 million by the end of the weekend. It has $225 million locked up at this point and could make a run for $240 million. That'd mean a multiplier of 7!!!


Nine was the only disappointing performer of all the openers and expanders on Friday. With $2 million on Friday it is looking at a weekend no higher than $7 million. Even with several Oscar nominations I don't see it making more than $35-40 million at this point. For the $80 million production things are looking rather bleak.


I also don't get The Princess and the Frog's disappointing legs. I was absolutely certain that it'll at least stay even this weekend, whereas it is looking to drop over 25%...hmm. Well, it still has a shot at $100 million but even then I'd consider it a disappointment.


Invictus rebounded somewhat and with the Oscar oush later in its run it should get a second wind. While it will never overcome the disappointment of its performance it should probably top $45 million afterall...


New Moon will be at $280+ million by the end of the weekend but it still has a looooong way to go until $300 million. It'll make it to $290 million without a doubt but after that it'll need a push from Summit.

your being way to safe on avatar, sucks the momentum out of the post.

I just saw Sherlock at a 6:30 showing at the AMC in Houston,Texas and holy crap the theatre was a madhouse. I saw tons of lines for Avatar and Alvin 2 and the theatre I was was in was packed to the gills. We had to sit all the way in the front and I can't forget that the parking lot was a mess. The movie was worth it though. I enjoyed the hell out of it and so did the audience. I still can't believe Alvin 2 had all those major lineups. The movie is going to do gangbusters today.

Well, Saturday should be Alvin's biggest day by a solid margin really. Not making any predictions, but the weakest increase after xmas day I found was 52% for films that are comparable to Alvin.

Could Alvin 2 beat Holmes' Saturday?

I would be VERY suprised if Alvin didn't do atleast 20mill today. The movie had lines extending to the other side of the theatre.

Yeah, $20m+ for Alvin would not shock me at all.

lol

That's scary

It's scary as hell LOL !, but it's true. At first I thought the long lines were for Avatar in 3D Imax because it sold out, but holy crap when I found out it was Alvin 2.

I agree with you. I saw it today and it got a good reaction from my audience. So, I think it will have okay WOM at worse. I think it will make 200. I don't see anything higher than 225 right now though.

Absolutely amazing weekend, the year goes out with a BANG. Everything performed well. FANTASTIC opening for Sherlock Holmes, this should fend off the mixed WOM and with an OW like this over Christmas it looks like a lock for at least 220m.

Avatar is simply...wow. I hope it passes Shitformers as the biggest film of the year. Here it's THE movie of the year. Everyone is talking about it, everyone is watching it.

Alvin did incredibly well, avoiding the fate of the Scooby Doo and Flinstones sequels, which I think is due to Fox smartly keeping it in the same spot as the first film unlike the other two. It could exceed the total of the first film, and a third one is definetely on the way. Kind of sad this is now a legitimately big franchise.

It's Complicated, Nine and Up In The Air all did well.

And how many of those DW and Pixar 3D releases were sold with dancing and singing frogs and crocodiles? None.

The point is, even if P&F would have been a 3D movie, it would have still faced the exact same marketing problems.

no doubt 2-D = dead

I think 3-D will stay level again next wknd

I think 3D will have 10-15% drop. The college football bowls will be much more of a factor this year than in 1998.

There are no good games Saturday night. Friday night will be affected, but not Saturday. And Sunday will be better than usual as a lot of teams have clinched playoff berths.

I am not going just by good games, but the fact there are at least three more bowl games over the weekend. There was only one bowl game on Saturday in 1999. There are 5 this year.

As far as I can figure, all the major bowls in 1999 were held on Friday except the Orange Bowl was on Sat. The Orange Bowl moved to Monday this year. All the bowls on Sat. this year except the Cotton Bowl are new or moved from Dec. in 1999.

In the NFL the playoffs had already started and even though ratings are high for the playoffs and individual games, they are higher when all the teams are still playing (every one is still watching their team, some opt out when the playoffs begin). So, that will be another drag.

I'm thinking Thursday we'll see much harsher drops than usual as well compared to other New Year's Eves. This is arguably the end of the decade, so there might be a whole lot more interest in end of year parties/celebrations...

Don't get me started, it's not the end of the decade.

Uh, anyways looking at 1999 New Year's Eve and 2004 New Year's Eve, I don't really see much difference 20-35% drops both years. I doubt there is a big difference this year from 1998, and I am not going back to check how many bowl games there were in 1998.

I don't think people are any more interested in New Year's than they are every year. 1999 was really the only exception in that regard, IMO.