I think most (if not all) can agree that the only films with any chance whatsoever to win Best Picture at the Oscars are:

Avatar
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
Precious (though very barely)


Many would say that The Hurt Locker is far ahead of the rest right now but I'd argue that the miniscule box-office and the small studio factor are holding it back.


So what needs to happen in terms of precursors to shift the attention mostly to one of those films?


For Up in the Air:

- It needs to win BP at the Globes
- It needs to win at least one of either BFCA, DGA or PGA
- Clooney needs to win SAG
- Needs to gross $70+ million

For The Hurt Locker:

- It needs to win DGA
- It needs to become the frontrunner for Best Editing
- It needs to win either BFCA or PGA

For Avatar:

- It needs to be nominated at the WGA
- It needs to win PGA
- It needs to sweep the tech guilds
- It needs to make $450+ million

For Precious:

- It needs to win BP at the Globes
- It needs to win SAG Ensemble
- It needs to win BFCA
- It needs to be nominated for the DGA

For Inglourious Basterds:

- It needs to win WGA and either one of PGA or DGA
- It needs to win SAG Ensemble
- It needs to win either Director or Picture at the Globes


If any of these films achieves all those accomplishements and none other does I'll consider that film a clear frontrunner for BP. Basterds, The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air look like the ones that have a shot to manage it.

all to easy for Avatar, I smell Camerons 2nd BD/BP win in a row.

Avatar - needs a PGA win and an Original Screenplay nomination. Becoming #3 of all time, a major Globe win and a BAFTA nom would help.
Up in the Air - more than one Guild win, wins at the GGs.
Inglourious Basterds - BAFTA and GG blowout, SAG win
The Hurt Locker - SAG win, and something else would help
Precious - an Editing and Director nomination, both of which are fuzzy. More than one guild win.

The Oscars would suck ass this year if AVATAR won. Just like they sucked ass last year when SLUMDOG won. UP IN THE AIR should win. I'd be fine with HURT LOCKER winning too, or BASTERDS. UP IN THE AIR and BASTERDS are my two favorite of the year right now. Haven't seen HURT LOCKER yet. PRECIOUS has NO chance of winning anymore.