The Avatar Prediction|Tracking Thread/ (Aug. 27 re-release)
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Welcome back Nazgul, what did you think of Avatar? 
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Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:06 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23345 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Box Office Guru has an interesting fact filled read as usual... Quote: Still, Avatar was a giant at the box office and its figure would have been even higher had it not been for the blizzard. Fox reported that theaters in heavily-populated markets like New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington D.C. reported huge Friday-to-Saturday sales declines with some plunging by 70-80%. Grosses typically rise on Saturdays. Nationwide, Avatar bowed to $27M on Friday, slipped 5% to $25.7M on Saturday, and is estimated to drop by only 21% to $20.4M on Sunday when the studio believes it will start seeing some of that lost business start coming back in. Many students have no school on Monday so Sunday evening is expected to be busy.
The road ahead looks encouraging for the Na'vi pic. Audiences have been loving the film giving it a terrific A average from CinemaScore. An exceptionally high 92% of those polled will definitely recommend the film. Adult men made up the largest quadrant as expected. Studio research showed that 57% of the crowd was male and 62% was 25 and older. Exhibitors have been racing the clock all year to get 3D screens installed in time for Avatar's opening and the new hardware, which allows for extra high ticket prices, paid off. 3D was available on 59% of the screens but they accounted for 71% of the gross. 2,032 theaters offered at least one extra-dimensional screen for a total of 3,124 3D screens including 178 in IMAX where consumers pay even more.
Mediocre effects-driven action films opening in mid-December typically can reach three times their opening weekend figure. Something as well-liked as Avatar could certainly play well through the holidays and quadruple its bow giving it a great chance of breaking $300M domestically. Should the legs be amazing, the cume would rise much higher. Of course, Cameron taught us all not to predict a final gross after just three days of release with Titanic which coincidentally also generated the second best December opening ever, at the time.
Critics were mostly positive on Avatar which also won four Golden Globe nominations last Tuesday including Best Picture - Drama and Best Director. The film's official reported budget is $230M, but industry insiders have estimated that the true production cost without marketing expenses is closer to $300M.
Cameron's films have always powered their way to muscular numbers overseas and Avatar was no exception as Fox rolled out the film in over 100 international territories with Japan, China, and Italy being the only major markets still to come. The sci-fi actioner grossed a scorching $159.2M overseas this weekend boosting the global opening to a towering $232.2M. The figures were on par with the most recent worldwide assault from Hollywood - last month's 2012 - which launched with $65.2M domestically, $165M internationally, and $230M globally. That doomsday pic is now at $733M after five weeks of play and Avatar should be able to have better legs thanks to a stronger product and the upcoming holiday break. Its global gross should have no problem soaring higher.
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Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:07 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
MadGez wrote: Box Office Guru has an interesting fact filled read as usual... Quote: Still, Avatar was a giant at the box office and its figure would have been even higher had it not been for the blizzard. Fox reported that theaters in heavily-populated markets like New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington D.C. reported huge Friday-to-Saturday sales declines with some plunging by 70-80%. Grosses typically rise on Saturdays. Nationwide, Avatar bowed to $27M on Friday, slipped 5% to $25.7M on Saturday, and is estimated to drop by only 21% to $20.4M on Sunday when the studio believes it will start seeing some of that lost business start coming back in. Many students have no school on Monday so Sunday evening is expected to be busy.
The road ahead looks encouraging for the Na'vi pic. Audiences have been loving the film giving it a terrific A average from CinemaScore. An exceptionally high 92% of those polled will definitely recommend the film. Adult men made up the largest quadrant as expected. Studio research showed that 57% of the crowd was male and 62% was 25 and older. Exhibitors have been racing the clock all year to get 3D screens installed in time for Avatar's opening and the new hardware, which allows for extra high ticket prices, paid off. 3D was available on 59% of the screens but they accounted for 71% of the gross. 2,032 theaters offered at least one extra-dimensional screen for a total of 3,124 3D screens including 178 in IMAX where consumers pay even more.
Mediocre effects-driven action films opening in mid-December typically can reach three times their opening weekend figure. Something as well-liked as Avatar could certainly play well through the holidays and quadruple its bow giving it a great chance of breaking $300M domestically. Should the legs be amazing, the cume would rise much higher. Of course, Cameron taught us all not to predict a final gross after just three days of release with Titanic which coincidentally also generated the second best December opening ever, at the time.
Critics were mostly positive on Avatar which also won four Golden Globe nominations last Tuesday including Best Picture - Drama and Best Director. The film's official reported budget is $230M, but industry insiders have estimated that the true production cost without marketing expenses is closer to $300M.
Cameron's films have always powered their way to muscular numbers overseas and Avatar was no exception as Fox rolled out the film in over 100 international territories with Japan, China, and Italy being the only major markets still to come. The sci-fi actioner grossed a scorching $159.2M overseas this weekend boosting the global opening to a towering $232.2M. The figures were on par with the most recent worldwide assault from Hollywood - last month's 2012 - which launched with $65.2M domestically, $165M internationally, and $230M globally. That doomsday pic is now at $733M after five weeks of play and Avatar should be able to have better legs thanks to a stronger product and the upcoming holiday break. Its global gross should have no problem soaring higher. told you it increased like 60% in anchorage even after selling out half its shows on friday, I expect 10m+ dailies mon-thur with at least two of em over 15m.
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Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:11 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote: Welcome back Nazgul, what did you think of Avatar?  Not quite Titanic awesome but great nonetheless. Need to see it a few more times, so much to take in. 
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Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:16 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Nazgul9 wrote: BJ wrote: Welcome back Nazgul, what did you think of Avatar?  Not quite Titanic awesome but great nonetheless. Need to see it a few more times, so much to take in.  matching Titanic would be hard indeed, Cameron did a fine job.
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Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:24 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatars Sunday
Keyser Soze - 22.5m -12% BJs Prediction: 21.8m -15% Mark66 - 21.29 -17% Chip Munkington - 20.9 -18%
Average: 21.65m -15%
you have until 10pm eastern 40 minutes
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Last edited by BJ on Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:24 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm Posts: 8202
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote: Predict Avatars Sunday
Keyser Soze - 22.5m -12% BJs Prediction: 21.8m -15% Mark66 - 21.29 -17% Chip Munkington - 20.9 -18%
Average: 21.65m -15%
you have until 10pm eastern 40 minites $21.1M
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Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:28 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
$20.45 million
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 12:24 am |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 9998 Location: Australia
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
The biggest question now is how it will play during the weekdays.
I Am Legend did the following:
Mon - Dec 17 - $7,465,450 Tue - Dec 18 - $6,503,117 Wed - Dec 19 - $6,021,296 Thu - Dec 20 - $6,064,109
Mon - Dec 24 - $4,401,023 - Christmas Eve Tue - Dec 25 - $9,781,154 - Christmas Wed - Dec 26 - $8,721,349 Thu - Dec 27 - $7,403,217
Mon - Dec 31 - $4,855,450 - NY Eve Tue - Jan 1 - $6,784,420 - NY Wed - Jan 2 - $3,377,329 Thu - Jan 3 - $2,831,301
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 2:13 am |
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Telemachos
Star Trek XI
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2005 3:23 pm Posts: 324 Location: Los Angeles, CA
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Barring something un-expected, I think AVATAR can out-gross every one of those days.
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 2:16 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Archangel wrote: The biggest question now is how it will play during the weekdays.
I Am Legend did the following:
Mon - Dec 17 - $7,465,450 Tue - Dec 18 - $6,503,117 Wed - Dec 19 - $6,021,296 Thu - Dec 20 - $6,064,109
Mon - Dec 24 - $4,401,023 - Christmas Eve Tue - Dec 25 - $9,781,154 - Christmas Wed - Dec 26 - $8,721,349 Thu - Dec 27 - $7,403,217
Mon - Dec 31 - $4,855,450 - NY Eve Tue - Jan 1 - $6,784,420 - NY Wed - Jan 2 - $3,377,329 Thu - Jan 3 - $2,831,301 lol, Avatar will pull in at least 70% more per day.
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 3:05 am |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am Posts: 3139
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Avatar's grade on Yahoo moved up to a solid A rating. The chances of this getting a 4.5+ multiplier are starting to look really good right about now.
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:08 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Speevy wrote: Avatar's grade on Yahoo moved up to a solid A rating. The chances of this getting a 4.5+ multiplier are starting to look really good right about now. ratings increasing by the day instead of decreasing, a 2nd wknd increase seems all the more likely.
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:16 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
with most recent update = #25 IMDB reached over 90% with a 8.7 average rating at RT, after starting on Friday with a 75% and a 7.9 average rating rose from a C- on Friday to an A on Sunday at Yahoo
in short, expect a 2nd wknd increase
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:26 am |
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Mesjarch
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 5:41 am Posts: 2388 Location: Poland
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
If it manages to make more than 65M $ next weekend then it's should easily pass 400M $
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:31 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Mesjarch wrote: If it manages to make more than 65M $ next weekend then it's should easily pass 400M $ 
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:32 am |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Speevy wrote: Avatar's grade on Yahoo moved up to a solid A rating. Wow, just wow! When was the last time ratings went up for a blockbuster as time went on?
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 8:04 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Nazgul9 wrote: Speevy wrote: Avatar's grade on Yahoo moved up to a solid A rating. Wow, just wow! When was the last time ratings went up for a blockbuster as time went on? from a C- to a flat A, never 
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 1:58 pm |
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Mandeep
The Dark Knight
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2009 11:22 pm Posts: 740
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
8.9 on IMDB and importantly solid ratings from all groups apart from the top 1000 voters...
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 2:18 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 2:29 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
RT Update:AvatarReviews: 205 Fresh/Rotten: 171 Fresh /34 Rotten Certified Fresh83% Fresh / 17% RottenAverage Rating: 7.4 / 10Cream of the CropReviews: 33Fresh/Rotten: 31 Fresh / 2 Rotten 94% Fresh / 6% RottenAverage Rating: 7.6 / 10 Its got 91% from the users with 3,035 fresh and 295 rotten, average grade is 8.7
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:13 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatars Sunday Keyser Soze - 22.5m -12%BJs Prediction: 21.8m -15% Mark66 - 21.29 -17% LadiesMan217 - 21.1 -17% Chip Munkington - 20.9 -18% Dr. Lecter - 20.45m -20% Average: 21.65m -15% Keyser Soze wins by default with the highest posted prediction, Congrats 
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:17 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatars Monday
BJs Prediction: 15.05m -39%
Average: 15.05m -39%
you have until 10pm eastern
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:42 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Rank | Days in Release | Day | % Change | Domestic Total | Theater Average | Theater Count | Day, Month and Year |
1 | Opening Day | $26,752,099 | New | $26,752,099 | $7,750 | 3,452 | December 18, 2009 |
1 | 2nd Day | $25,529,036 | -4.6% | $52,281,135 | $7,395 | 3,452 | December 19, 2009 |
1 | 3rd Day | $24,744,346 | -3.1% | $77,025,481 | $7,168 | 3,452 | December 20, 2009 |
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:53 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Day | Avatar | I Am Legend | Return of the King |
Wed | - | - | $34,450,834 - / - $34,450,834 / 1 |
Thu | - | - | $17,019,987 -50.6% / - $51,470,821 / 2 |
Fri | $26,752,099 - / - $26,752,099 / 1 | $30,059,386 - / - $30,059,386 / 1 | $21,811,549 +28.2% / - $73,282,370 / 3 |
Sat | $25,529,036 -4.6% / - $52,281,135 / 2 | $28,795,114 -4.2% / - $58,854,500 / 2 | $27,492,053 +26% / - $100,774,423 / 4 |
Sun | $24,744,346 -3.1% / - $77,025,481 / 3 | $18,356,821 -36.3% / - $77,211,321 / 3 | $23,326,111 -15.2% / - $124,100,534 / 5 |
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Mon Dec 21, 2009 4:55 pm |
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