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 Weekend Estimates 
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Post Weekend Estimates
# Title Dec 18 - 20 Dec 11 - 13 % Chg. Theaters Weeks AVG Cumulative Distributor

1 Avatar $ 73,000,000 3,452 1 $ 21,147 $ 73,000,000 Fox
2 The Princess and the Frog 12,224,000 24,208,916 -49.5 3,475 3 3,518 44,756,000 Buena Vista
3 The Blind Side 10,030,000 15,055,258 -33.4 3,407 5 2,944 164,734,000 Warner Bros.
4 Did You Hear About the Morgans? 7,000,000 2,718 1 2,575 7,000,000 Sony
5 The Twilight Saga: New Moon 4,370,000 7,960,394 -45.1 3,035 5 1,440 274,561,000 Summit
6 Invictus 4,170,000 8,611,147 -51.6 2,125 2 1,962 15,845,000 Warner Bros.
7 A Christmas Carol 3,419,000 6,833,190 -50.0 2,070 7 1,652 130,789,000 Buena Vista
8 Up in the Air 3,100,000 2,394,344 29.5 175 3 17,714 8,106,000 Paramount
9 Brothers 2,630,000 5,014,426 -47.6 2,009 3 1,309 22,091,000 Lionsgate
10 Old Dogs 2,289,000 4,409,772 -48.1 2,630 4 870 43,574,000 Buena Vista



2012 2,150,000 4,351,565 -50.6 2,242 5 959 158,974,000 Sony
Armored 1,225,000 3,504,374 -65.0 1,538 2 796 14,195,000 Sony
Precious 1,117,000 1,280,550 -12.8 1,003 7 1,114 39,998,000 Lionsgate
Ninja Assassin 870,000 2,707,470 -67.9 1,155 3 753 36,357,000 Warner Bros.
Planet 51 800,000 2,267,038 -64.7 1,349 5 593 38,487,000 Sony
The Road 612,000 505,878 21.0 396 4 1,545 4,879,000 Weinstein Co.
Fantastic Mr. Fox 600,000 1,396,148 -57.0 575 6 1,043 17,387,000 Fox
Everybody's Fine 586,000 2,194,210 -73.3 1,003 3 584 8,840,000 Miramax
Boondock Saints II 370,000 793,393 -53.4 404 8 916 9,328,000 Apparition
Nine 247,000 4 1 61,750 247,000 Weinstein Co.
The Young Victoria (excl. Canada) 148,254 20 1 7,413 148,254 Apparition
A Single Man 139,000 217,332 -36.0 9 2 15,444 471,000 Weinstein Co.
Crazy Heart 84,204 4 1 21,051 109,536 Fox Searchlight
The Lovely Bones 41,000 116,616 -64.8 3 2 13,667 197,000 Paramount

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Last edited by Keyser Söze on Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:46 am
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Superfreak
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
not bad hold at all.

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:47 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Gonna be close between it and ROTK for 2nd Biggest December Opening. -21% on Sunday might be a tad generous though given the snow this weekend. Either way, 71, 72, 73, whatever, great opening for Avatar.

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:48 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
do u still think holmes will beat it.

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:48 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
If this holds, TITANIC and AVATAR have something in common, both delivered the 2nd best December openings of all-time...

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:50 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Avatar certainly looks like a 300+ million grosser now. Even the absolute minimum - mainly due to Sherlock and Alvin 2 - is at 250 million.


Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:52 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Amazing opening. That's also good enough for No. 2 of the year. All things considered, something like 65m+ OW and a 275m total would have been very good already.


Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:55 am
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Darling Nikki says:

$12.2m FROG
$9.7m BLIND SIDE

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:12 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
i am hoping sunday holds are better than usual bcos saturday increases have been horrible for all the holdovers.

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:14 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Even worse, she reports only $40,000 for THE LOVELY BONES...

1. Avatar (Fox) NEW [3,452 runs] Fri $27M
, Sat $25M, Wkd $72M
2. Princess And The Frog (Disney) Week 2 [3,475] Wkd $12.2M (-49.5%), Cume $44.7M
3. The Blind Side (Warner Bros) Week 5 [3,407] Wkd $9.7M, Cume $164.4M
4. The Morgans? (Sony) NEW [2,718] Fri $2.3M, Sat $2.4M, Wkd $6.5M
5. New Moon (Summit) Week 5 [3,035] Wkd $4.4M, Cume $274.6M
6. Invictus (Warner Bros) Week 2 [2,125] Wkd $4.2M, Cume $15.9M
7. A Christmas Carol (Disney) Week 7 [2,070] Wkd $3.4M, Wkd $130.7M
8. Up In The Air (Paramount) Week 3 [175] Wkd $3.1M, Cume $8.1M
9. Brothers (Relativity/Lionsgate) Week 3 [2,009] Wkd $2.6M, Cume $22.1M
10. Old Dogs (Disney) Week 4 [2,630] Wkd $2.2M, Cume $43.5M
---
Precious (Lionsgate) Week 7 [1,003 runs] Wkd $1.1M, Cume $40M
The Road (Weinstein) Week 4 [396] Wkd $665K, Cume $4.9M
Fantastic Mr Fox (Fox) Week 5 [575] Wkd $595K, Cume $17.3M
Nine (Weinstein) NEW [4] Wkd $270K, Per Screen $67,592
Young Victoria (Apparition) NEW [44] Wkd $249K
Me And Orson Welles (Freestyle) Week 4 [134] Wkd $159K, Cume $554K
A Single Man (Weinstein) Week 2 [9] Wkd $137K, Cume $469K
Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight) NEW [4] Wkd $84K, Per Screen $21,122, Cume $110K
The Lovely Bones (Paramount) Week 2 [3] Wkd $40K, Cume $197K

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:15 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
and PRECIOUS dropped again despite Golden Globes noms and 51 % more theaters...

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:16 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Well I think when final estimates come in it will actually be around 70mill since it did only 26.7 on Friday and the Sunday estimate is obviously inflated. Either way it's still a strong number and for me especially since I had it at only 68milll opening weekend I'm feeling really good right now. What I'm not so happy about is my 11mill estimate for Morgans. I mean how could it seriously do that bad with two bankable leads. OUCH!


Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:33 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
mark66 wrote:
Even worse, she reports only $40,000 for THE LOVELY BONES...


A film like Lovely Bones needs strong reviews and strong WOM to break out, and it's having neither. The IDMB grade is good so far, but will likely drop under 7.0 once more people see it. Could be one of the biggest bombs of the year.

In retrospect, if they would have opened it wide, it might have had a 20 million opening and a solid overall gross, with the help of the "from the director of LOTR" and some cool money shots. But at least to me it seems that the hype is already dying down.

I don't see any Oscar noms for it either. It's flying under radar.


Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:42 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
I want LB to bomb; it means pj will be doing a huge scale comeback movie.

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:50 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
BOG is up and LB is down by 65 % !!!

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:52 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Man, what a rough weekend for A Christmas Carol. Christmas movies drop off very quickly after Christmas, so this was it's last potentially good weekend.


Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:11 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Great opening but it fell to meet my high expectation by 87 million. :(

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:14 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Rev wrote:
Great opening but it fell to meet my high expectation by 87 million. :(


But the Cowboys won. That's worth at least $86m.

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:38 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Excel wrote:
I want LB to bomb; it means pj will be doing a huge scale comeback movie.

LOL. Why would he be given an absurd amount of money (BTW The Lovely Bones costed more than any of the LotR movies, so I don't see how it's not huge scale - unless you mean he'll go back to fantasy adventures) after an expensive bomb TLB is shaping up to be and especially since King Kong somewhat underwhelmed BO wise?


Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:55 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
mark66 wrote:
and PRECIOUS dropped again despite Golden Globes noms and 51 % more theaters...


But everything dropped pretty hard other than The Road and Up in the Air. The former tripled its theatre count and the latter more than doubled it. Without the snowstorm the film would have likely stayed even or had a very slight increase.

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:22 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
What a crappy weekend. Can't wait until the Christmas holiday Box Office starts.

PRECIOUS did awful. They waited way too long to expand it. Same goes for THE ROAD.

There's still hope for THE LOVELY BONES once it goes wide, if it has a big enough marketing campaign. This is a movie that always seemed like it should have went wide pretty much off the bat. Waiting until almost the middle of January to go wide seemed ridiculous.


Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:38 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
The Lovely Bones is dead, both awards wise and box office wise. Few limited releases would drop 60%+ when they're not expanding. Along with the initial Friday-to-Saturday drop, it indicates the film is only attracting the few core audience. I don't see it making $20m now.

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:48 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Very poor weekend.

Hopefully after these harsh drops, we'll see an unusually strong weekend next week.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:52 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
Grosses in New York dropped 18 percent from Friday to Saturday, Philadelphia was down 57 percent, Washington, DC fell 75 percent and Baltimore dipped 86 percent.

http://boxoffice.com/numbers/

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Sun Dec 20, 2009 4:09 pm
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Post Re: Weekend Estimates
mark66 wrote:
Grosses in New York dropped 18 percent from Friday to Saturday, Philadelphia was down 57 percent, Washington, DC fell 75 percent and Baltimore dipped 86 percent.

http://boxoffice.com/numbers/

:grrr:


Sun Dec 20, 2009 4:40 pm
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