December is the month of unfathomable box office totals. While I may have initially seen a film like Meet the Fockers be a $150 m - 200 m movie, it can find its way to become a $250 m movie from this generous month.

Titanic $601 m
NATM $251 m
Castaway $233 m
Fockers $279 m

Imo, Avatar's long term success is greatly dependent on how much Alvin and co break out. I'm seeing another monster performance from that sequel, but if either Sherlock or Alvin disappoints, I'll be adding at least $30 m to my projection for Avatar's total.

I also think inflation and ticket prices will be ridiculous on Avatar that it will give it a highly inflated total that doesn't look completely realistic but is with today's ticket price increases. Up was supposed to be close to a $250 m film, but with the 3D surcharge got to $293 m.

Say a film like Castaway, if we adjust for inflation, and add a 20% surcharge for 3D as a hypothetical, it would be at $389.5 m today. So if Avatar got the same number of admissions as Castaway, it would nearly be a $400 m film. 3D and inflation have made $400 m more attainable.

Not that I'm saying that I see Avatar doing $400 m, but I just think December has a tendency to get films to totals that are often completely outside the realm of reality...

All 3 films will do great at the boxoffice.
Avatar will top 500m of course due to the fact it's awwwwsome!
Sherlock will top 160m easy.
A&C2 will top 200m because it's A&C2.

And It's Complicated will do $150 m!

Honestly, why couldn't one of these movies open earlier in the month when December was a ghost town??

Also, if Avatar managed to get the same admissions as LOTR 1, it would do $497.6 m today. Not to say that I see anywhere close to that, but that's just how dramatic 3D and inflation has skewed box office totals. I mean, the #6 movie of the year is at $258 m, and only 1/6 of the top 6 films of the year even had a 3D benefit (Up), and that clearly inflated its box office over its predecessors by 15-20%.

I can only imagine what 3D will do for a film series like Shrek. As a hypothetical, if Shrek 2 was adjusted to 2009 dollars and had a 3D bump of 20%, it would be at $638.3 m. That's just not right!

Up still was way way up from the disappointing Wall-E

Yes it was. But with a 2009 avg ticket price + 3D bump that it saw (close to 17% opening weekend and 15-20% over its run), Wall-E would have done $273 m in 2009.

Up still finished 7% ahead of it, even though their non-adjusted grosses show Up ahead by 30.9%. That's how much 3D bumped Up ahead. Without 3D, Up would have made close to $250 m or so this year. In terms of 2008 dollars, Up perhaps would have done $240 m. Still ahead of Wall-E's $223.8 m total. Admissions for the two films are a lot closer than the high ticket prices let on...

I agree. It will get solid WOM it seems and there will be repeat viewings, but it wont get the people that rarely go to the cinema to go (ie. older people, busy etc). The Navi' just dont have that much appeal.

oh yes it will, 500m+ fo sho

RT Update:

Avatar

Reviews: 192
Fresh/Rotten: 159 Fresh /33 Rotten Certified Fresh
83% Fresh / 17% Rotten
Average Rating: 7.4 / 10

Cream of the Crop
Reviews: 32
Fresh/Rotten: 30 Fresh / 2 Rotten
94% Fresh / 6% Rotten
Average Rating: 7.6 / 10

Its got 87% from the users with 1337 fresh and 184 rotten, average grade is 8.5

Nah it is 83, 94 and 86 respectively...

it will remain in that range ...some reviews were 3/5 or 6/10 yet were rotten but ah well. JC will call their name out and humiliate them in public.

Predict Avatars Opening Day

Rev - 80m
BJs Prediction: 40.77m
DIB2 - 38m
Telemachos 32.6m
Gamaur - 31m
Keyser Soze - 31m
2001 - 30m
KC - 28m
Xiayun - 28m
したい - 27m
Proud Ryu - 27m
Chip Munkington: 26.00m
Nebs - 24.6m
Mr. Lobotomy - 24.1m
Mark66 - 24m
Dr. Lecter - 24m
Neo_Wolf - 22m
Mesjarch - 20m
Zingy - 19m
Jon - 18.9m
MG Casey: 17.35m
Mr. Green - 15m
LadiesMan217 - 13.5
Mr. Blue - 10m

Average: 27.16m

good job on nailing the opening day through the average KJers, Corpse and Ryu tie for best predict, we'll see out things hold up with actual's

Predict Avatars Saturday

BJs Prediction: 27.5m

Average: 27.5m
you have until 10pm eastern

$24.8 mil

34.6m

23.5 (just took the midnights off to make up for the likely drop), then something around 18.5 on sunday should give it 68-70 this weekend.

IMDB Update:

Avatar

User Rating: 8.9/10 (12,466 votes)

User Ratings for Avatar

User Comments for Avatar

IMDB top 250 #51 on top 250

External Reviews

up 300% in buzz from last wk

83 Rating On Metacritic
Nine 100 Ratings

meta critic is boring, that data was all there a wk ago.

It's more accurate than RT... which has idiotic critics involved.

Avatar

Days

Rank	Days in Release	Day	% Change	Domestic Total	Theater Average	Theater Count	Day, Month and Year
1	Opening Day	$27,000,000	New	$27,000,000	$7,822	3,452	December 18, 2009

first of many.

Due to lack of snow storm in the AK Avatar is literally up 40%-60% from yesterday, absolutely massive, showings selling out at least an hour in advance unlike yesterdays walk in business.

Wonderful.

no doubt

Predict Avatars Saturday

Rev - 34.8m +29%
BJs Prediction: 27.5m NC
Chip Munkington - 24.8m -9%
Coprse - 23.5m -12%

Average: 27.65m +1%

you have until 10pm eastern

25.5

28m. i checked nyc/boston/dc and see lots of 3d sellouts. its in line with yesterday. no doubt its matinee would have been stronger. i expect it to increase at least 15% without midnights.