Predictions for Avatar
December Update #5

Opening Wknd:
LadiesMan - 35m
MG Casey - 44m
Excel - 45m
Jon - 53.3
2001 - 55m
billybobwashere - 55m
Madgez - 59m
Tuukka - 60m
Magnus - 60m
KC - 62m
Zingy - 65m
BK - 65m
Nebs - 59.4m
Archangel - 65m
したい - 65m
The Dark Shape - 65m
Kris K - 70m
Mark66 - 70m
Chip Munkington - 75m
Flava'd - 77m
Proud Ryu - 80m
Telemachos - 81m
Gamaur - 89m
Keyser Soze - 90m
Justice - 91m
Benny Blanco - 91m
SolC9 - 94m
BJ - 106.32m
Rev - 170m

Average Opening Wknd Prediction: 67.48m


Domestic Total:
LadiesMan - 140m | multiplier - 4.00
MG Casey - 176m | multiplier - 4.00
Excel - 200m | multiplier - 4.44
Kris K - 210m | multiplier - 3.00
Nebs - 228.1m | multiplier - 3.84
Zingy - 234m | multiplier - 3.60
BK - 235m | multiplier - 3.61
Archangel - 240m | multiplier - 3.69
Tuukka - 240m | multiplier - 4.00
Madgez - 247m | multiplier - 4.19
2001 - 250m | multiplier - 4.55
したい - 265m | multiplier - 4.82
KC - 275m | multiplier - 4.44
billybobwashere - 285m | multiplier - 5.18
Jon - 295.5m | multiplier - 5.54
Magnus - 300m | multiplier - 5.00
The Dark Shape - 310m | multiplier - 4.77
Proud Ryu - 320m | multiplier - 4.06
Telemachos - 340m | multiplier - 4.20
Nazgul - 350m | multiplier - -
Justice - 377m | multiplier - 4.08
Chip Munkington - 415m | multiplier - 5.53
Flava'd - 420m | multiplier - 5.45
Mark66 - 450m | multiplier - 6.43
SolC9 - 459m | multiplier - 4.88
Keyser Soze - 475m | multiplier - 5.28
BennyBlanco - 501m | multiplier - 5.51
Gamaur - 510m | multiplier - 5.74
Rev - 600m | multiplier - 3.53
BJ - 811m | multiplier - 7.62

Average Domestic Total Prediction: 322.62m

Average Multiplyer: 4.65

change my total domestic to $160M

Now that I've seen it, my interest in it's box office has skyrocketed. Unfortunately I don't think the second act is dramatically compelling or engaging enough for it to be a complete phenomenon, as in the same way Star Wars was, but the finale packs such a huge punch the final impression is incredibly positive. I think removed from any attachment to the political message, general audiences will be amazed by it. For my full confidence it really needs more character development, but it's such a unique film on so many other levels that there's no way to know what the broader social consensus will be.

For the first 90 minutes it's a 250-350 million-grossing film, but the closing 45 feels more like a 700 million-grossing film. I think my 510 prediction is more than possible, but I won't be surprised if it lands with about 325-350.

The international box office is another story. I'm predicting up to a billion dollars is well within reach.

I'm going to call bullshit right now on any prediction under 250 million. This is more of a crowd pleaser than My Big Fat Greek Wedding was, and I reckon it'll have the strongest mainstream WOM of the year by a mile. Here's my crowd report from BOM:

Avatar 3D

Advance screening in Hobart, Australia

Early queue but the cinema was only 60% full, though keep in mind that it was an advance screening. Audience included a lot of local journalists, but the crowd was generally very diverse in age, appearance and gender.

Trailers:

Percy Jackson - some talking
Old Dogs - bit of laughter but I think it looks shit
Alice in Wonderland 3D - a lot of talking. Looks awesome.

The film:

People were cheering in the battle at the end. It was like going to a live sports event. I went with a large group of people and every single person, including those skeptical before going in, absolutely loved it. Personally, I think it could have been a lot better in places, but overall it's a remarkable experience. It gives the same sensation as being on a rollercoaster in some places. The CG is obviously CG, but it's still the best I've seen. Pandora is awe-inspiring to look at. The feedback afterwards from other audience members was stellar. It's a very, very broadly appealing film. The love story is the focus, but the action towards the end is unbelievable. I've got a few reservations about it, but I'd still recommend it to anyone. The last 45 minutes is cinematic perfection, and much better than anything that precedes, so don't worry if you're expectations aren't met for the first 1:30 or so - from then on they will get smashed out of the park.

I love how people point out it's cornyness/cheesyness... but Titanic was corny/cheesy beyond belief!

change my total domestic to $160M

The ending is over 40 minutes long, which effectively made me forget most of the middle section. I know exactly where you're coming from though. I remember having the distinct thought at about the 1:20 mark of "hmmm not too sure about this". But it's visuals really are incredible, and it's been a long, long time since they've carried such an impact. It'll be enough to make it a 'must see' film for most people.

Oh my God, Mr. Green cloned himself...

Gotta tell ya newb.. That's actually pretty accurate and pretty much true cause I don't think anyone really does give a shit about a movie with a politcal message thrown in with blue cat people with no plot and fancy "game ending" FX???? Will see in a few days won't we???

I would suggest that Mr. Green and Mr. Blue get a sub-forum just for them so they can be dillusional all by themselves...

I would suggest that Mr. Green and Mr. Blue get a sub-forum just for them so they can be dillusional all by themselves...

I'm not nervous at all because I saw the movie yesterday in a full theater and know how wom will be...

I'm not nervous at all because I saw the movie yesterday in a full theater and know how wom will be...

You and your clone are the only ones who think that opening weekend matters...