Some quick facts:

Running time 150min + 6min credits

Domestic:
2,500 3D theaters with 3,500 3D screens (including 180 IMAX)
1,500 2D theaters with 2,000 2D screens

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/con ... 6081f17500

The actual theatre count will be anywhere between 3900-4100 theatres. But I am concerned about the minimum 5500 screens in north america. I hope they release it on 8000+ screens in north america because 5500 is average for a supposed huge movie.

Well now that I think of it Avatar isn't as big in the media as New moon, 2012 were. Also, the media will now cover Sherlock holmes because of Robert Downey Jr.

A realistic domestic number is 200-300 million to me.

Worldwide 500-700 million.

It's hard to pin it down any better than that.

Two things:

1. Beatty wasn't in Heaven's Gate. He was in Ishtar and also in Town and Country, which was also a huge BOMB.

2. Also, at the very end, does the b.o. performance really have anything to do with how much you like at movie. What happens if, surprise, and this is assuming you go to see it, you end up liking the movie, BKB? Does it matter then if the movie makes $100n, 200m$ or 500m$ if you did like it?

If you judge the movie quality by its b.o. performance you will have to admit that Paranormal Activity was four times better than The Descent or My Big Fat Greek Wedding twice as good as The Incredible Hulk.

More importantly to Fox, a strong Globe reaction could be the final piece of the puzzle to ensure a massive opening weekend. "Avatar" is already tracking at a $60 million plus debut, but unexpected critical acclaim could certainly boost interest among those on the fence about the genre flick. At the very least, it's certainly another intriguing twist in "Avatar's" 15 year journey to the big screen.

http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/2008-12-11- ... for-avatar

after world premier I expect tracking to blast past 80m

Its funny how originally we were banking on the legs and iffy about the OW, now its reversed

I think it will be a solid opener with solid legs - so $60m OW and $240m is about the average. It can make a bit more or less by tweaking the OW or the multiplier slightly. But that's about middle ground until we know how good it is.

I think a 4 multiplier sounds about right. My semi-final prediction:

Opening: $44 million
Total: $176 million

Agree MG, 4 sounds right regardless of the OW. Your $44m is brave but also quite possible. I'm leaning to $55m-60m at the moment (only due to the empty marketplace) but $44m is possible.

I can't see an opening less than $55m at this point. And the overall multiplier will be in the 4.5 range.

Why do you guys see such a great multiplier? The holidays will obviously help, but besides that this type of movie is usually on the frontloaded side, and with all of the immense hype this has gotten for the past year, I don't see what would make it any different. I know the WOM is expected to be amazing, but it would have to be legendary to push a movie that is going to be this frontloaded to 300m+ from a 50-70m opening.

papertank, I'm advocating a 4 multiplier which isnt that great for this time of year. I think the fact that its sci-fi and has the Cameron fanbase coming out OW will work against it but on the flipside - its Christmas, its on 3D screens and its an original not a sequel so that will work for it. So when it all balances out - 4 multiplier is about right. A $55-$60m opening will get it to $220-250m give or take.

I think a 4 could happen, but a 5+ is too high, IMO.

Yes, if it gets oscar noms a 5 is more likely.

According to early tracking, the film is doing worst with 35+ and women.
Those are two demos that can be very impacted by critical response. If
the initial reviews are strong by top critics, I could see this exceeding
tracking by a good margin. Couple that with an extended run in 3D, and
possible Oscar noms, the pieces are there to hit 400M+, but there are a
lot of "if's" to answer in the next week.

Opening Weekend: $91 million
Domestic Total: $377 million
Multiplier: 4.14
International Total: $644 million

Worldwide Total: $1.02 billion

Nahh

Pre-MTC tracking prediction

OW: 55m
Total: 250m

lol

I expect Cameron to pull out another 6.0+, the guys track record is awesome when it comes to multipliers.

QFT

Opening Weekend - $48.4 million
Domestic Total - $271.5 million (5.61)

Though admitted I kept looking back at 1998 to get an idea at the daily performance, so I could be waaay off on opening and legs.

The total I'm pretty confident in, though. About the same as King Kong and WALL-E while taking IMAX/3-D into account.