The percentages are what EW believes the nominee in question will receive of the overall vote.

Best Picture
Million Dollar Baby: 35%
The Aviator: 30%
Sideways: 25%
Finding Neverland: 5%
Ray: 5%

Best Director
Clint Eastwood: 40%
Martin Scorsese: 35%
Alexander Payne: 15%
Taylor Hackford: 5%
Mike Leigh: 5%

Best Actor
Jamie Foxx: 50%
Clint Eastwood: 25%
Leonardo DiCaprio: 15%
Don Cheadle: 5%
Johnny Depp: 5%

Best Actress
Hilary Swank: 35%
Annette Bening: 25%
Imelda Staunton: 25%
Kate Winslet: 10%
Catalina Sandino Moreno: 5%

Best Supporting Actor
Morgan Freeman: 35%
Thomas Haden Church: 25%
Clive Owen: 25%
Alan Alda: 10%
Jamie Foxx: 5%

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett: 30%
Virginia Madsen: 25%
Natalie Portman: 20%
Sophie Okonedo: 15%
Laura Linney: 10%

Best Original Screenplay
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind: 35%
The Aviator: 30%
The Incredibles: 25%
Hotel Rwanda: 5%
Vera Drake: 5%

Best Adapted Screenplay
Sideways: 45%
Million Dollar Baby: 40%
Before Sunset: 5%
Finding Neverland: 5%
The Motorcycle Diaries: 5%

Yay for Million Dollar Baby!!!

They are close to being on the same page as I am.

The percentages are what EW believes the nominee in question will receive of the overall vote.

- Does it say how the % were estimated - Did they do any sampling?

Seems like they are agreeing all of the expected winners.

Best Picture
Million Dollar Baby: 35%

Best Director
Clint Eastwood: 40%

Best Actor
Jamie Foxx: 50%

Best Actress
Hilary Swank: 35%

Best Supporting Actor
Morgan Freeman: 35%

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett: 30%

Best Original Screenplay
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind: 35%

Best Adapted Screenplay
Sideways: 45%

They are cowards. Jamie Foxx only 50%? This is a 100% category...

I think it'll be more like:

Best Picture
The Aviator: 38%
Million Dollar Baby: 35%
Sideways: 17%
Finding Neverland: 6%
Ray: 4%

Best Director
Martin Scorsese: 47%
Clint Eastwood: 40%
Alexander Payne: 9%
Mike Leigh: 3%
Taylor Hackford: 1%

Best Actor
Jamie Foxx: 55%
Clint Eastwood: 25%
Leonardo DiCaprio: 11%
Johnny Depp: 5%
Don Cheadle: 4%

Best Actress
Imelda Staunton: 31%
Hilary Swank: 31%
Annette Bening: 23%
Kate Winslet: 13%
Catalina Sandino Moreno: 2%

Best Supporting Actor
Morgan Freeman: 38%
Alan Alda: 20%
Thomas Haden Church: 19%
Clive Owen: 13%
Jamie Foxx: 10%

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett: 45%
Natalie Portman: 23%
Virginia Madsen: 21%
Laura Linney: 7%
Sophie Okonedo: 4%

Best Original Screenplay
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind: 27%
Vera Drake: 24%
The Aviator: 22%
Hotel Rwanda: 15%
The Incredibles: 12%

Best Adapted Screenplay
Million Dollar Baby: 45%
Sideways: 41%
Finding Neverland: 9%
Before Sunset: 4%
The Motorcycle Diaries: 1%

Woah, I disagree with your winners in like five categories.

I am *not* feeling The Aviator. Say what you will, but I don't think it will win.

So you think all of the people who worked on M$B, The Aviator, Finding Neverland, and Hotel Rwanda voted for Foxx too? Eastwood has already admitted that he voted for himself. :razz: I'd say 50% support is a very strong ass whopping.

The entire article.

http://www.ew.com/ew/package/0,12938,1013725_1_0_,00.html

Entertainment Weekly predicts who'll emerge victorious in top eight Oscar matchups

With those pesky hobbits out of the way, this Oscar race actually has some drama. And we couldn't be happier. Wait, no — we couldn't be more miserable, because it makes picking the winners so tough. Can Million Dollar Baby fight it out till the end? Has Sideways lost all its momentum? Will The Aviator's Martin Scorsese finally take home an Oscar? We’ll know the results on Feb. 27. For now, having consulted Academy members, Oscar strategists, and our tea leaves, we're setting forth our predictions. Don’t forget to send us a cut of those Oscar-pool winnings.

Best Actor

Jamie Foxx had better prepare his speech. His victory seems a sure bet. In fact, Sideways' snubbed non-nominee Paul Giamatti probably has as much of a chance of winning as the other actors in this category. This is to take nothing away from Don Cheadle's potrait of quiet heroism in Hotel Rwanda, or Johnny Depp's wide-eyed innocence in Finding Neverland, or Leonardo DiCaprio's tic-filled embodiment of Howard Hughes in The Aviator, or Clint Eastwood's stalwart turn as a boxing coach in Million Dollar Baby(the best shot at a suprise upset here). Each is a fine performer, deserving of own first-time Acting Oscar (all but Cheadle have a single prior nod). But each will, no doubt, applaud politely during the triumphant Foxx trot to the Kodak Theatre stage. Blessed with a once-in-a-lifetime role in Ray, Foxx pulled off the tricky feat of subsuming himself, body and soul, into the character of music legend Ray Charles -- and picked up the majority of critics' awards, not to mention the Golden Globe. Don't worry, Mr.Foxx. Oscar'll be good to you.

Jamie Foxx 50%
Clint Eastwood 25%
Leonardo DiCaprio 15%
Johnny Depp 5%
Don Cheadle 5%

Best Actress

Before the nominations were announced, all the talk focused on Million Dollar Baby's Hilary Swank and Being Julia's Annette Bening, who competed against each other five years ago (after Bening picked up the SAG Award for 'American Beauty,' Swank landed the Oscar for 'Boy's Don't Cry'). But once Vera Drake earned nods in three top categories, its star, Imelda Staunton, suddenly rose to the level of possible winner. (If reviewers were voting, she'd probably take home the statue, having won 13 critics' prizes to Swank's nine.) Although it's possible to win this prize for indie films (see Charlize Theron, Halle Bery, and Swank), it's tough when the movies in question haven't even topped $5 million in box office, as is the case for both Vera and Julia. (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind's Kate Winslet and Maria Full of Grace's Catalina Sandino Moreno, meanwhile, can boast bigger theater receipts but quieter buzz.) So after this awards season's final round, except many puns about Swank landing the knockout punch.

Hilary Swank 35%
Annette Bening 25%
Imelda Staunton 25%
Kate Winslet 10%
Catalina Sandino Moreno 5%

Best Supporting Actor

Last year, this cateogory was a done deal, with 'Mystic River"s Tim Robbins sweeping all three of the most reliable pre-Oscar awards. But Broadcast Film Critics winner Thomas Haden Church, Golden Globe victor Clive Owen, and SAG Awards favourite Morgan Freeman have proved that this year won't be so predictable. Two things are for sure: After checking off Jamie Foxx's name for Best Actor, voters aren't likely to do so again for Collateral, and with his limited screen time, The Aviator's Alan Alda isn't likely to score an Oscar to rest next to his five Emmys. So who will break the deadlock? Owen gave a star-making performance as a furious cuckold in Closer, but the film doesn't have much overall support. Sideways sidekick Church is the most appealing story of the bunch, having evolved from sitcom star to missing person to Oscar nominee, but it's rare for a comedian to emerge victorious. Our money's on Freeman, who earned his fourth nod for his measured turn in Million Dollar Baby and should finally reach the stage for the first time.

Morgan Freeman 35%
Clive Owen 25%
Thomas Haden Church 25%
Alan Alda 10%
Jamie Foxx 5%

Best Supporting Actress

Winning an Oscar for Supporting Actress is all about the role. It must be substantial enough to make a strong impression. Talented as they are, Sophie Okonedo and Laura Linney are both saddled with smallish "wife of" parts in Hotel Rwanda and Kinsey. Golden Globe winner Nataile Portman plays against type as a stripper in Closer, and voters like to reward young ingenues who stretch a little (think Angelina Jolie in 'Girl, Interrupted' or Mira Sorvino in 'Mighty Aphrodite'). But she didn't even get a SAG nomination. Virgina Madsen downs her juicy monologue about wine and life in Sideways with understated gusto, but potraying a siren of a certain age may not seem like such a hard sell. So in a very, very tight contest, voters may rally around a showbiz-oriented role (think Catherine Zeta-Jones in 'Chicago'). And in The Aviator, Aussie chameleon and critical fave Cate Blanchett daringly embodies another great Kate very familar to the the Acamedy, four-time winner Katharine Hepburn.

Cate Blanchett 30%
Virgina Madsen 25%
Nataile Portman 20%
Sophie Okonedo 15%
Laura Linney 10%

Best Director

This year's race for Best Director is just that: a race. Yes, Mike Leigh wowed voters with his collaborative work on Vera Drake and Taylor Hackford captured the essence of a music legend in Ray. But repeat after us: It's an honor to be nominated. Alexander Payne also wrested strong performances out of his wine-tippling ensemble in Sideways, but his visual stylings aren't flashy enough to take the top prize. That brings us back to two of the elder members of Hollywood's old guard. By all rights, Martin Scorsese should have a golden guy (or several) on his mantel after four previous directing nominations. His work on The Aviator is characteristically strong, epic even - the latest departure from the maverick, indie sensibility that originally won him acclaim in the 70s. But the Acamedy has long had a soft spot for actors-directors, and Clint Eastwood's multifaceted work on Million Dollar Baby (he even wrote the score!) is gaining steam as a contender just when it matters most, as the finish line approaches.

Clint Eastwood 40%
Martin Scorsese 35%
Alexander Payne 15%
Taylor Hackford 5%
Mike Leigh 5%

Best Picture

Could this be the year when all pre-Oscar prizes end up signaling nothing? First, Sideways and The Aviator took home Best Picture honors at the Golden Globes and "Sideways" best-ensemble victory at the SAG Awards. So why do we think the Oscars' big winner is likely to be Million Dollar Baby? One word:momentum. With the latest wide-release date of the nominees, it's the movie most voters are discovering right now. And they're not just discovering it -they're loving it. Though its final plot development has stirred controversy among some activist groups, the backlash may only strengthen Acamedy support. Thanks to "Sideways" impeccable performances and "The Aviator's" technical mastery, both should see substantial vote totals (Finding Neverland and Ray, meanwhile, will bring up the rear), but the years have proved that when it comes to deciding between two or three Best Picture nominees, Acamedy members vote with their hearts, not their minds.

Million Dollar Baby 35%
The Aviator 30%
Sideways 25%
Ray 5%
Finding Neverland 5%

Best Adapted Screenplay

Much as we love Before Sunset, its inclusion in this category was one of the happiest suprise of this year -- its team of Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Julie Deply and Kim Krizan should probably split the bottle of cabernet at their seats in the Kodak Theatre and enjoy the show. Likewise for Finding Neverland's David Magee and The Motorcycle Diaries' Jose RiveraL That they've earned nominations for their first produced feature screenplays will have to reward enough. This race comes down to Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor's bittersweet Sideways, which has seeminlgy won every award under the sun so far, and Paul Haggis' Million Dollar Baby, which features expert use of spare dialogue, profound descriptions of the sport of boxing, and a effective voice-over framing device. But the voters may also realize that they haven't checked off 'Sideways' that often on their ballots ('Lost in Translation"s only win last year was in the screenplay category) and could raise their collective glass to the little comedy that could.

Sideways 45%
Million Dollar Baby 40%
Finding Neverland 5%
Before Sunset 5%
The Motorcycle Diaries 5%

Best Original Screenplay

Faced with the nominees in this category, voters may go by process of elimanation. Writer-director Mike Leigh is famous for improvisation, so how much can he claim credit for writing Vera Drake? Keir Pearson and Terry George's Hotel Rwanda tells a moving real-life story of courage, but it follows a somewhat conventional narrative arc in a film few people seen. Brad Bird offers witty take on middle-age superheroes in The Incredibles, but no screenplay Oscar has ever gone to an animated film. That brings us to The Aviator, which has generated some reported backlash about whether John Logan deserves solo script credit. Add in the mixed response to the movie itself among filmgoers and Hollywood buzz-makers, and a once-certain Logan victory seems like anything but. That leaves Charlie Kaufman (and his two story collaborators), whose wiggy romance Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was his top-grossing film ever and generated 12 critics' awards as well as his third Oscar nod. We suspect the third time may just be the charm.

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind 35%
The Aviator 30%
The Incredibles 25%
Hotel Rwanda 5%
Vera Drake 5%


Art Direction: Aviator
Cinematography: Aviator
Costume Design: Aviator
Film Editing: Million Dollar Baby
Makeup: Lemony Snicket
Original Score: Finding Neverland
Original Song: "Believe" The Polar Express
Sound: Aviator
Sound Effects Editing: Spider-Man 2
Visual Effects: Spider-Man 2
Documentary: Born Into the Brothels
Documentary Short: Autism Is A World
Live Action Short: Everything in This Country Must
Animated Feature: The Incredibles
Animated Short: Ryan
Golden Gloves

And here are their lead critcs picks

Lisa--
Best Picture: Sideways
Best Director: Clint Eastwood
Best Lead Actor: Jamie Foxx
Best Lead Actress: Imelda Staunton
Best Supporting Actor: Clive Owen
Best Supporting Actress: Virginia Madsen
Best Adapted Screenplay: Sideways
Best Original Screenplay: The Incredibles

Owen--
Best Picture: Sideways
Best Director: Alexander Payne
Best Lead Actor: Jamie Foxx
Best Lead Actress: Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor: Thomas Haden Church
Best Supporting Actress: Virginia Madsen
Best Adapted Screenplay: Sideways
Best Original Screenplay: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Guys .. if its possible, atleast put a link to the original .. its rather wrong to just take an entire article someone put in an effort for and they not getting the traffic for it.

Thanks.

I guess that link is right. I took the text from my magazine.

Wow, they're original. They couldn't have taken at least one risk??

Movie writers from the Associated Press' predictions.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... scar_picks

Here is the Oscar prediction scorecard from Oscarwatch.com. BKB is not the only one predicting Ray.

http://www.oscarwatch.com/Predictions04/

God, most everyone is so boring. I hope there are a few surprises come Oscar night.

Yeah, that's how I feel about MDB right now.. I'm not *feeling* it and I'm turned off by all the overpraise for it... Root for the underdog and that's "RAY".. I swear to God, if somehow through the grace of God this movie were to win BEST PICTURE, I will laugh so hard at the jaws dropped over it.. It'll be fantastic..

Really? Where did you read that?

My thoughts exactly. They are playing the "safe card".

I thought it is their projection how likely the win for each nominee is, not the vote percentage

Jay Leno asked him on the Tonight Show if he voted for himself. He said "If you don't believe in yourself, then what are you doing here". He also said that he has never really believed it when he's heard other people claim that they didn't vote for themselves. Seriously, would you vote for the other guy? I wouldn't.