So I take it you're opposed to any movie over 2 hours, then?

Predictions for Avatar
November Update #1

Opening Wknd:
LadiesMan - 35m
Excel - 45m
Jon - 53.3
2001 - 55m
billybobwashere - 55m
Chip Munkington - 56m
Magnus - 60m
Zingy - 65m
BK - 65m
Nebs - 65m
Archangel - 65m
Kris K - 70m
Mark66 - 70m
Flava'd - 77m
Telemachos - 81m
Keyser Soze - 90m
Benny Blanco - 91m
SolC9 - 94m
BJ - 106.32m
Rev - 170m

Average Opening Wknd Prediction: 73.43m


Domestic Total:
LadiesMan - 105m | multiplier - 3.00
Chip Munkington - 170m | multiplier - 3.04
Excel - 200m | multiplier - 4.44
Kris K - 210m | multiplier - 3.00
2001 - 230m | multiplier - 4.18
Zingy - 234m | multiplier - 3.60
BK - 235m | multiplier - 3.61
Nebs - 240m | multiplier - 3.69
Archangel - 240m | multiplier - 3.69
Jon - 242.5m | multiplier - 4.55
Magnus - 250m | multiplier - 4.17
billybobwashere - 285m | multiplier - 5.18
Telemachos - 340m | multiplier - 4.20
Nazgul - 350m | multiplier - -
Flava'd - 420m | multiplier - 5.45
Mark66 - 450m | multiplier - 6.43
SolC9 - 459m | multiplier - 4.88
Keyser Soze - 475m | multiplier - 5.28
BennyBlanco - 501m | multiplier - 5.51
Rev - 600m | multiplier - 3.53
BJ - 811m | multiplier - 7.62

Average Domestic Total Prediction: 335.6m

Average Multiplyer: 4.453

It's slightly alarming that it is only 5 weeks away from its release and still not getting too much attention. If New Moon wasn't around, it probably would be getting a lot more attention than it has been imo.

How do you gauge "attention"?

Fox are going to be spending around $150 million on marketing over the next 5 weeks. By the time of its release I'm sure it will be getting sufficient 'attention'.

My prediction: $60 million OW, $380 million domestic total.

Again, how do you know, smartass?

Just general impressions on how much people talk about it, how often its mentioned on tv, on Google News/Yahoo, etc. It's not an exact science, but I just don't think the general public is even very aware of this right now. I'd say the New Moon hysteria could have something to do with that, along with This Is It's hyped up marketing campaign as well as perhaps 2012's pending release. With New Moon potentially doing $100 m +, and then having Thanksgiving, it might not be until Nov. 29th (the last day of the Thanksgiving long weekend) that attention in the general public and media starts to move to Avatar. That's about 19 days before its release.

I just don't feel that people are talking about this right now.

For example, on Google Trends, we can compare New Moon to Avatar. Avatar has had an uptick in mid August with the Avatar promotion, but Avatar isn't being searched that much more than it was at the beginning of 2009.

New Moon on the otherhand, was getting searched less than Avatar at the beginning of 2009 perhaps by a factor of 2, but over the year steadily has risen and built up anticipation, and now has more searches than Avatar, as of about early September.

Also, the Google trends may be generous as Avatar is a common term on the Internet. When the term "James Cameron Avatar" is used, the difference is exponentially higher. When the term "Twilight," is used, Twilight was searched more than Avatar was during the entire year.

At the beginning of November, Google Trends show "Avatar" searches are rising, but it is still perhaps 1/3 of where searches were in mid August when they had that Avatar promotion. Searching trends hasn't even surpassed August levels yet, and it is 5 weeks from release.

This is of course not an exact science, but I do think that Avatar isn't getting much attention thus far from the mainstream media and audiences...

mainstream media is covering new moon

simply put mainstream media probably doesn't care about Avatar

Twilight has some of the craziest fangirls, no wonder internet activity is through the roof. And it's pretty obvious that it's gonna open bigger than Avatar anyway.

Avatar having less searches than in August could be more of a cause for concern but like you said, it's not exact science. We'll see. Broad marketing really just started.

Right now it would be foolish to spent a lot of money when 2012 and NEW MOON make the most noise...

And the more people go to the movies these days, the more likely they are to watch the newest AVATAR preview...

Do you need a hug??? Everything will be alright..

I thought it will tank?

That was very kind of Mr. G to offer consolation and a smiley hug. Let's all be sure to return the favor when AVATAR is a big hit.

But it won't be.. That's why I'm offering the consolation hug..

There's definitely a huge marketing push right now. Trailer was with 2012 and A Christmas Carol. It's not getting much reaction (and no, it's not because they're stunned at its amazingness), but at least it's getting awareness.

Let's be honest, you have no clue what other people in the room were thinking, apart from your friends.

True, but let's be honest: the majority of people don't exactly get an orgasm for the Avatar trailer like the people on this site do. If a trailer blows someone in the theater away, there'd be at least some talk. Kick Ass got more people talking than Avatar. I'm talking about how people react to it, not what they're thinking. So yes, there can be zero reaction and everyone in the theater actually does want to see it? Sure? But it doesn't correlate like that quite easily.

And my friends think it looks awesome, for the record.

Normal people don't get orgasms for any trailer like us geeks do.

Those interpretations of audience reactions are more often than not full of bias. Now i'm not necessarily saying that you are anti Avatar but you might be positive about it being a hard sell and you see this as a confirmation of sorts. Yesterday, i've read on BOM that Avatar got the best trailer reaction ever. Same bullshit.

Fact is, it's difficult to gauge, hence i've never posted trailer reactions.

Avatar is now a 5 day opener, right?

Ill say it is a KONG clone. 9-10 opening day, 65-70 5 day.

No, in the US it's opening on the 18th, as it always has. Overseas it's opening on the 16th in some territories.

Wrong. It's stil opening on the 18th as far as i know.

Overseas it seems to be opening on the 16th in some places but that's pretty normal because movies there usually open on thursdays and they often do wednesday previews for big blockbusters.

EDIT:
Got beaten...

2012 opened with $160M for 5 days OS. The number will most likely increase when actuals come out.

I simply don't see Avatar doing that kind of business in 5 days due to several reasons. December has never really been about huge opening weekends both DOM and OS. It is all about the legs.

Hell King Kong was expected to do $130+M OS OW but did only $85M or so OW.