Over $75m would be fantastic (3-day) but i wonder how they come up with numbers like this. Seems like predicting the future...

The likeness to Delgo is uncanny!!! It doesn't really look as if it cost any more. Hah.

$70,000,000
$210,000,000


It will most likely have to wait until the end of it's worldwide run before it breaks even.

Do we know what it actually cost yet? $250m?

Now that is just bullshit.

Well of course you'd agree with this asinine comparison, i haven't expected anything other from you than saying something negative in regards to Avatar.

Just to add to my reply to Kris K, one can say he hates the designs, one can say it looks fake, for the most part i don't agree (the teaser did have parts that seemed unfinished) but whatever, however, claiming that Avatar bears a strong resemblance in looks and animation quality to that cheap cartoon Delgo, that is when i stop taking your opinion seriously, that is just trolling.

My impression that if this one breaks even the studio would consider it a win considering all the RnD costs wrapped in. I thought they were hoping for profitability in upcoming sequels.

Looking at the release schedule it seems to me that AVATAR will be the last movie for a long, long time to have an eleven week window until the next 3D release...

The new trailer is quite long, 3:17 mins and dare I say it, quite boring and ho-hum.

I'm not really feeling this movie, even after two trailers....the visuals i don't find particular groundbreaking (perhaps on the big screen) and nor do I really feel for the story or characters.

I've got no doubt that it'll do well and make back more than its budget but not the movie I was hoping for. This is the only major action big blockbuster movie left in the year, this is bound to help it.

It's between this and New Moon for the title this holiday season....though I wouldn't be surprised if New Moon defeats it.

New Moon - $115m/$240m
Avatar - $65m/$240m

Archangel, your opinion is your own, of course, but after browsing through the forums of KJ, BOM, AICN, RT, JoBlo, etc I've got to say your reaction is an extreme minority.

Movie buffs will go nuts over it, its an artists dream. Archangel is discussing the way he feels standard audience will react andI disagree with him, I would be shocked if this film makes 225 million at the moment. It just looks very weird. Everything not showing the blue folks looks superb, but than they show these cartoons creatures....the films gonna be a very tough sell.

I say 42-45/190-200 million seems likely; it got almost no reaction tonight in the theater outside snickers ar the blue people.

Excel doesn't like blue people, so take his interpretation of the trailer reactions with a grain of salt...

For the same reason is he persona non grata at Curaçao.

They do a great job of selling the blue people. I don't think the footage in this last trailer looks cartoony at all - The outstanding face performance capture in particular really goes a long way in selling the CGI creatures. I'm someone who hasn't really *believed* in any major CGI character besides King Kong. Gollum was too cartoony for my tastes with his exaggarated facial expressions.

I believe in these creatures. At least in this trailer.

Looks like a 200+ million domestical grosser and a 500+ million worlwide grosser to me. Should be enough to start a franchise, as that is what they are aiming for.

The trailer is long, but it doesn't feel long. I thought it was under 3 minutes, even if it's 3:17. It keeps on building and building, and has a thrilling climax.

The key thing here is really that the trailer stirs your emotions. It's a simple, effective story setup that appeals to all audiences. They shouldn't have much trouble in getting the fantasy audiences (over 50% of whom are female) to come and see this film. It feels romantic, and I don't mean that in only the boy-meets-girl sense. The fantastical landscapes, the noble native people, the collision of scifi warfare with bows and arrows: All that appeals to romantic notions of the mainstream people who have made movies like LOTR and POTC huge successes.

They did an excellent job with this trailer, showcasing effectively pretty much every single selling point they have.

BJs Official Prediction:
Avatar

Opening Day: 40.77m
2nd Day: 35.44m -13%
Opening Wknd: 106.32m - Fri: 40.77m / Sat: 35.44m -13% / Sun: 30.11m -15%
4-Day: 123.17m - Mon: 16.85m -44%
5-Day: 141.22m - Tue: 18.05m +7%
6-Day: 157.33m - Wed: 16.11m -10%
Opening Wk: 167.77m - Thur: 10.44m -35%
2nd Wknd: 81.64m -23% - Fri: 20.99m +100% / Sat: 31.66m +50% / Sun: 28.99m -8%
11-Day: 270.07m - Mon: 20.66m -28%
12-Day: 286.40m - Tue: 16.33m -20%
13-Day: 299.95m - Wed: 13.55m -16%
2nd Wk: 312.94m - Thur: 12.99m -4%
3rd Wknd: 62.43m -23% - Fri: 26.00m +100% / Sat: 22.10m -15% / Sun: 14.33m -35%
Wk-1: 167.77m - Wknd: 106.32m | Total: 167.77m
Wk-2: 145.17m - Wknd: 81.64m | Total: 312.94m
Wk-3: 84.38m - Wknd: 62.43m | Total: 397.33m
Wk-4: 58.15m - Wknd: 41.80m | Total: 455.48m
Wk-5: 50.30m - Wknd: 29.98m - 4-Day-Wknd: 40.38m | Total: 505.78m
Wk-6: 32.95m - Wknd: 22.75m | Total: 538.73m
Wk-7: 28.90m - Wknd: 18.95m | Total: 567.63m
Wk-8: 28.90m - Wknd: 20.05m | Total: 596.53m
Wk-9: 34.80m - Wknd: 23.10m - 4-Day-Wknd: 28.45m | Total: 631.33m
Wk-10: 26.75m - Wknd: 18.70m | Total: 658.08m
Wk-11: 25.80m - Wknd: 18.00m | Total: 683.88m
Wk-12: 27.00m - Wknd: 18.00m | Total: 710.88m
Wk-13: 33.50m - Wknd: 25.20m - | Total: 744.38m
Wk-14: 22.95m - Wknd: 16.55m | Total: 767.33m
Wk-15: 14.90m - Wknd: 10.45m | Total: 782.23m
Wk-16: 11.20m - Wknd: 6.75m | Total: 793.43m
Wk-17: 7.50m - Wknd: 5.05m | Total: 800.93m
Wk-18: 4.40m - Wknd: 3.25m | Total: 805.33m
Wk-19: 2.75m - Wknd: 2.05m | Total: 808.08m
Wk-20: 1.50m - Wknd: 1.10m | Total: 809.58m
Wk-21: .70m - Wknd: .50m | Total: 810.28m
Wk-22: .35m - Wknd: .25m | Total: 810.63m
Money Made After Wk-22: ~1m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 35
Wks at #1: 6 (consecutive)
Days over 1m 115 (consecutive)
Days to 50m: 2-Days - 76.21m
Days to 100m: 3-Days - 106.32m
Days to 150m: 6-Days - 157.33m
Days to 200m: 9-Days - 220.42m
Days to 250m: 11-Days - 270.07m
Days to 300m: 14-Days - 312.94m
Days to 350m: 16-Days - 361.04m
Days to 400m: 22-Days - 407.37m
Days to 450m: 27-Days - 452.22m
Days to 500m: 33-Days - 500.00m
Days to 550m: 44-Days - 551.90m
Days to 600m: 57-Days - 600.50m
Days to 650m: 66-Days - 650.00m
Days to 700m: 80-Days - 701.85m
Days to 750m: 93-Days - 755.80m
Days to 800m: 118-Days - 800.00m
Domestic Total: 811m
International Total: 1,190b
World Wide Total: 2b

Multiplyer: 7.62

Predictions for Avatar

Opening Wknd:
LadiesMan - 35m
Excel - 45m
Jon - 53.3
2001 - 55m
Chip Munkington - 56m
Magnus - 60m
Zingy - 65m
Nebs - 65m
Archangel - 65m
Flava'd - 66m
Kris K - 70m
BJ - 106.32m

Average Opening Wknd Prediction: 61.80m


Domestic Total:
LadiesMan - 105m | multiplier - 3.00
Chip Munkington - 170m | multiplier - 3.04
Excel - 200m | multiplier - 4.44
Kris K - 210m | multiplier - 3.00
2001 - 230m | multiplier - 4.18
Zingy - 234m | multiplier - 3.60
Nebs - 240m | multiplier - 3.69
Archangel - 240m | multiplier - 3.69
Jon - 242.5m | multiplier - 4.55
Magnus - 250m | multiplier - 4.17
Flava'd - 330m | multiplier - 5.00
BJ - 811m | multiplier - 7.62

Average Domestic Total Prediction: 271.875m

Average Multiplyer: 4.165

It took me a very long time to finish that prediction (months) due to other obligations, I don't put nearly as much focus on BO as I did in the past.

post #1 now updated.

What the hell, here's mine:

Opening Weekend: $81 million

Total Domestic: $340 million

Total Overseas: $520 million

Total Worldwide: $860 million

btw, why don't you update the first post to include the actual poster, not the fan mockups?

I think the trailer is fantastic. I have a soft spot for the CG characters
Dobby, Gollum, and King Kong, and it looks to me that they are all put to
shame in Avatar.

I want this to be huge, so I'm predicting it high and willing it to happen.
I think beating Titanic is not realistic (though I hope I'm wrong). I think
it could end up north of 400M though. Personally, I hope it takes out
Shrek 2. So undeserving to be the #4 all time domestic grosser. Then,
next summer, Toy Story 3 can beat Shrek as well and it won't be in the
top 5 any more

Domestic 459M
International 643M
Worldwide 1.102 B

170m OW
600 DOM
1.45B WW

Nice 3 predictions posted in one day, thanks all, keep em coming.