I'm waiting for the HD version of the trailer now. Gauging the reaction from others, I feel like I might have jumped to conclusions based on the trailer I saw.

I think this can get 200m now. I mean that was always my prediction but it's now solid.
Not a 120m or whatever. Definitely not Titanic though to see a 300m performance would be all kinds of cool.

I got a KK vibe from this too. Quality wise. I enjoyed KK.
Anyway um, just wanted to say Alvin 2 will not be doing very well anyway so yeah.

Alvin 2 is so doing 180+M imo.

Nah.
Avatar 215m
Sherlock 175m
Alvin 2 165m
Bones 95m

That's all I can remember in December.

I am hoping

Princes and diary frog - 100M
Avatar - 300M
Sherlock - 145M
Alvin 2 - 180M
Bones - 95M


Although from what I see every december we have one major dissapointment or outright bomb. So I don't know which one it will be. Alvin 2 definitely won't be that.

Hoping...(if all quality is lived up to)
Avatar 320m
Sherlock 210m
Princess 165m
Bones 135m
Alvin 90m (lol, didn't even watch the first, so IDC really, if there were to be a disappointment/bomb then here)

Hmm but in 05 Narnia did well past expectations and Kong disappointed slightly. No bomb?
07 Legend did very well so did Chipmunks and NT2 and TGC bombed so no disappointment.

I don't remember 06 and 08, 08 because it had no tentpoles. I mean in retrospect, TDTESS? I haven't seen it but the scope is small I'm told so yeah. TCCOBB was a niche. Really, what did 08 have, nothing.
2006 was Meet the Fockers breakout nothing else I remember.

edit: 2006 was Night at the Museum so when was MTF?

NT2 did fine. TGC bombed though.

Eragon in 2006 bombed.

$300+ million seems absurd for an action-driven, star-less hard sci-fi movie populated with bouncy blue toons.

yeah, that's why I'm going for $400m

I shoulda stuck to my original prediction. Movie will be kickass, but there's a limited audience for what is shown in the trailer. 200 Million.

This is King Kong 2.0, might top out at $187m, though.

Updated:

Opening: $53.3 million
Total: $242.5 million (4.55)

King Kong/WALL-E range, a little higher thanks to IMAX/3D.

It's not a good sign when I show the trailer to my 50-year-old mother and her first reaction is, "That's going to lose money."

In her defense, she is an idiot.

If she's an idiot I'd hate to see what it makes the rest of us, considering her genius-level scores in just about everything. (And yes, I just defended my mom. Simmer down.)

I think she's right, based on that trailer. It reveals nothing about the movie's story, it's not stirring, it looks fake, and it doesn't build any excitement. My initial reaction was, "Oh. That's it?" And I flippin' love James Cameron.

It's the kind of trailer that I guarantee makes audiences laugh when it's finished, coupled with more than a few "What was that?" reactions.

I guess you take after your dad.

Yeah, that's right. WHAT!?

I was going to say that. You stole my self-defeatism joke, bastard

I don't see any link between the two, mainly because I don't see Avatar being a crowd pleaser. It's probably a bit too out there for that.

OW: $56 mil
Total: $170-ish mil

I'm bumping up my opening wknd predic, 85m-105m.

It's not getting $250m+. I'm predicting KK numbers at most right now, but again, $187m. There's so much competition, with or without Holmes, and this film is not an easy sell.

Honestly? I don't see this even matching King Kong unless it is like the best movie ever and it has out of this world WOM/oscar support.

At least King Kong had a really good trailer and mainstream appeal.

I say

Domestic: 210
Int:300
Worldwide total: 510