Just got back from seeing 500 Days of Summer for the 2nd time. I think a nomination can happen.

Pros:
Right now it stands at 88% Fresh on RT
It's doing great in terms of box office as it expands and will cross 10m in a few days. It has the potential to make in excess of 50m+.
Fox Searchlight has been nominated for BP in 4 of the last 5 races, in which 3 of the nominated films were comedies.
Funny People imploded and will not be nominated, freeing up space for another comedy.
Stands a pretty good chance of getting 4 nominations at the GGs (Best Comedy, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Screenplay)

Cons:
Weak showing on MC with a 76 (5 100s).
All 3 of the nominated Fox Searchlight comedies also had acting nominations, something 500 Days WILL NOT have.
Fox Searchlight basically swept last year, maybe they'll be a backlash.
Summer release.
Unless critic circles embrace it, the GGs may be its only pre-Oscar recognition.
Amelia, Fox Searchlight's high profile Fall release could be their horse.



Weighing both sides and assuming Amelia fails, I think 500 Days gets in.

1. Loyalfromlondon
2. Groaning
3. Chipmunk
4. Magnus
5. nghtvsn

In.

In.

Slumdog Millionaire didn't have acting nominations.

A nomination is possible if it make at least $50 million. Otherwise, no.

Sorry, I thought everyone would know the 3 Fox Searchlight films I was referring to. LMS (Supporting Actor), Sideways (Supporting Actor, Actress), Juno (Actress)

Oh damn. Well, that is a formidable track record. Still, Amelia does seem like an easier nomination, even if it's sub-Reader.

Amelia, if its even kinda good, could get Actress, Art Direction, and Costume noms, along with BP. 500 Days at most gets 2.

I absolutely loved this movie and hope it gets in, but it really doesn't have much behind it come awards season unless Amelia falls apart.

It's the next Garden State, another late summer release. So all your 20-something friends will be raving it for the next few years, and all the hipsters will flock to it like flies on shit before they decide they don't actually like it. But no Best Picture; even with ten, Garden State wasn't gonna have a chance.

Even if I think the movie is wonderful, that all still applies.

It's not like Garden State for all the reasons I stated. I think it may become an anthem for the current generation, much like Garden State was. But that's the extent of the comparisons really.

whatchu kno about hipsters?

can we not talk about this here? Fuck!

So, loyal, you're suggesting it's gonna play like Little Miss Sunshine in terms of success and buzz? Am I crazy for not feeling that anywhere?

I dont think its completely removed from LMS. It could have a similar box office run, the numbers critically are somewhat similar.

The real handicap for 500 Days is that it doesn't have actors to push, that's something the previous 3 Fox Searchlight comedies had. And its a big handicap.

Fox Searchlight is going to push something this year and push hard. It's easy to assume it'll be Amelia but if that film doesnt click, they could have a 50m+ grossing, well-received plan B.

I also think a comedy is getting in this year. Had there been 10 nominees last year, I think one of the critically acclaimed comedic dramas would have broken in.

I think we will see a comedy this year, but no, I don't see it being (500) Days of Summer. Like Garden State and Into the Wild, the movie skews too young to get those stodgy old people to vote for it.

On the other hand, Up in the Air could totally get a BP nomination, especially if it's the best work Jason Reitman/George Clooney have done yet, as early rumors are suggesting.

It was only report sent it for Up in the Air and it has a weird smell to it (read more about its suspicious nature at Hollywood-Elsewhere).

The Informant! could also be that comedy this year.

There are many variables in play for 500 Days, so we'll see how it plays out. This weekend will be interesting as it goes to almost 1000 theatres.

Well yeah, by nature of being early, unconfirmed raves, that Up in the Air buzz is suspect. I guess I could just also easily see George Clooney and Jason Reitman connecting with the Academy crowd.

As for The Informant... I think Matt Damon has a fine chance of landing a Best Actor nomination. Playing against type, an actual person, and gaining weight are all things the Academy loves. I have a tougher time seeing the movie itself connecting. For one, Soderbergh has been rather undervalued for the last couple of years. Unless it earns across the board raves, I don't see it setting the box office on fire either. But of course, if it does get those raves, we can talk then.

I have a feeling that (500) Days of Summer will perform very well this weekend and throughout August. But with the cons you've listed, I think this needs to perform closer to Juno than Little Miss Sunshine to really stand a chance.

I agree with everything you just posted. If the box office goes wild this weekend, I think a higher number will probably be in store. LMS "only" made 59m.

In.

It's gonna on too many short lists and with 10 options there is plenty of room.

That weekend tally does not indicate a sleeping giant. If this club wasn't already hopeless, I think this weekend may have been the nail in the coffin.

It's running neck and neck with LMS. Relax Sam.

It's more Garden State than LMS. I'm saying it's out of Original Screenplay.

It needs a gross north of $50 million, solidifying it as a movie that is buzzed about around the States and worthy of a nom. The reviews alone aren't strong enough to get it a nom if it doesn't become a fair-sized hit.

I'd agree that it needs great box office.

Day 26
500 Days/Little Miss Sunshine/Garden State
$13,687,718/$12,692,059//$6,510,000

It's a very good film, but not something that I'd consider 'great.' I don't think it will have anywhere near enough momentum to sustain it to January. It's going to be sprinkled in critic top 10 lists, though, but as an also-ran not as a film that they're pushing. If I had to fit the movie somewhere, it'd be best original screenplay. I think it could have an outside chance at winning that this year, especially since many of the major contenders are adapted works.

Out

Not in, no.

They won't go for more than 1-2 summer films, I think and Up and The Hurt Locker both have vastly better chances. (500) is on about the same level of a possible nom as Star Trek...if not lower.