With 10 noms for BP this year, the real indicator of strength lies in the Best Director race. It's sure to line up 5/10 with the BP noms, right?

I think with so many films directed by women in the race this year, we're bound to see at least 2 of them nominated. I'm going with Bigelow and Campion.

I also think Lee Daniels is in, it's just too much to pass up having a black director nominated. It's been almost 20 years since John Singleton's nom.

I'm envisioning this weird scenario where well-known previous nominees are left out in the cold, further complicating the BP race. No Scorsese, no Jackson, no Marshall. I think we'll get one big name in and unfortunately, that may mean Eastwood (though I'm hoping its Marshall or Jackson).

For the one, swept up in nom tallies pick, I'm going with Jim Cameron.

Obviously all the above is subject to change and probably will change somewhat.

Feels like it's Pedro or Greengrass' turn to win. That's not based on anything but a gut feeling, but taking away the guys who already have an Oscar and the too small names, those two stick out to me. But Greengrass' film looks Body of Lies like generic, so I'll go with Pedro here in a split.

Eastwood
Jackson
Marshall
Nair
Scorsese

are my five. With Marshall winning.

Jackson, Eastwood, Hillcoat, Bigelow, Marshall.

Bigelow
Campion
Eastwood
Jackson
Scherfig

I like Judd Apatow but he should never be nominated for best director, unless something has changed in Funny People. H is the defintion of a writer who happens to direct he is not a filmmaker, not that there is anything wrong with that because he has made two good films and that is more than I have done.

Directing a comedy doesn't mean necessarily mean flash. Editing and directing great comedy generally requires more skill, if anything. Not too many serious directors do good comedy, but many great directors of comedy have done well in drama.

With all the Pixar/cartoon comments yesterday, I wonder how big of a virtual directing bias there will be towards Cameron.

Waking Life, Beowulf, The Polar Express, Waltz with Bashir, and Speed Racer are all ample evidence of the push against animation and live action merging. Avatar may get a Best Picture nomination because it makes enough money in December, but I have a hard time seeing the anti-future Academy giving him their blessing.

Here is who I voted for and why...

Kathryn Bigelow: I'd say 85% chance of getting nominated
Let me start with a disclaimer that The Hurt Locker is my #1 of the year so far. That being said, I am really baffled by the amount of media and awards buzz this film has been receiving lately. It is INSANE. I think she's getting in purely based on the amount of buzz she has amassed this summer.

Peter Jackson: 70%
As long as Lovely Bones doesn't disappoint, the film will make the cut. But as far as PJ is concerned, I think to get nominated the movie must really impress. There will be alot more competition for these 5 slots and they could reward him with a screenplay nomination. Remember, he missed a nod in 2002 for Two Towers.

Rob Marshal: 85%
As long as Nine does not disappoint, he's in. And since I currently have NINE pegged to win, I see it unlikely he loses out a second time when his musical wins Best Picture. Only reason I'm not more sure than Bigelow is because we haven't seen Nine yet.

Clint Eastwood: 45%
Most if these nods are of course contingent on the respective movies being big top 10 players, so it should go without saying that the nod will follow if the film is well received and places in the top 10. I'm quite iffy on Clint because he was a bit off the mark last year. Then again, you've got Morgan Freeman with this.

James Cameron: 25%
I kind of doubt he's getting in because I still don't know what to make of Avatar. If the film manages a top 10 nod and grosses a decent amount ($200m+), I think he could ride into the Director category just for leading the 3D revolution successfully. In his place, though, I think we might see either Pedro Almodovar or Paul Greengrass. I couldn't choose between those two, so I went with Cameron.

Only two people predicting Hillcoat?

something about predicting The Road makes me uneasy. I'm sure that will change once it screens.

I think it'd be a lot like Assassination Of Jesse James except the Weinsteins are marketing it like an action film (I don't hear any word that they cut the film to ribbons, though they sure got jumpy when the rough cut was screened). So, at least it will open more than well enough to pass the budget by a large degree, but that won't effect what the critics think, as I'm sure they're expecting something much different than an average viewer of the trailer.

I'm beyond in love with the source material and I remember being one of 15 people to see The Proposition in theatres. I think there's a chance at it breaking out but as always, anything can happen.

What comments?

Some who watched the Comic-Con footage, said it was on par with a beautiful Pixar film. There's a bias within the directing branch towards digital directing, which is understandable to a degree.

I think Campion has no shot only because I can't see any movie with Abbie Cornish as the lead getting the director a BD nod.

Top 5 seem pretty far ahead from the rest of the pack

Out of 11 votes

Rob Marshall - 9/11
Peter Jackson - 8/11
James Cameron - 7/11
Clint Eastwood - 6/11
Katheryn Bigelow - 6/11

I wish the Coens and Jason Reitman were on the poll.

I don't know about the Coens. Yeah, they are brilliant, but that doesn't occur to a lot of people immediately. Plus, a comedy or even a dry drama/comedy has to really explode critically and financially to get in. Which leaves Reitman, but two consecutive nominations? Again, it takes a lot for a lighter film. Picture nominations are very possible for both, but Director nominations from now on will be showing the contenders really gunning for a win. And I can't see that for either films.

Tarantino... no. I thought he was non-union (not part of the DGA) meaning people would never push him into the final 5.

Cameron out. Jackson in.

Explain.

If people weren't taking Jason Reitman seriously before, they certainly should now. Not only is Up in the Air receiving -rave- reviews, but many of them are regarding it as "a Jason Reitman film" (rather than a George Clooney vehicle) and praising him for capturing the magic of Billy Wilder, James L. Brooks, and Cameron Crowe in their primes.

Besides, he's previously nominated. And Juno didn't exactly scream "DIRECTOR OSCAR!" He's young, but he's respected and he's clearly made one of the most important films of his career with Up in the Air. He's in.