AUSTRALIA Preview

2007 was a hot year, with Shrek 3, Harry Potter 5 and Pirates 3 all capable of taking out the year. It was HP5 which came out with the highest total at $35.4m matching HP4 and ranking 4th largest for the franchise here in Australia. If it wasn't for The Simpsons Movie ($31m+), I think this could've surpassed HP4.

HP6 emulates the opening pattern of HP5, also a 5-Day opening and in the exact same slot. Back in 2007 it was Transformers followed by Knocked Up, this year, it's Transformers 2 followed by Ice Age 3 followed by Bruno. The competition pre-release I would say is about the same (2007 had Shrek 3 two weeks before Transformers 1), but the key difference is that there's hardly anything out during July/August which could challenge HP6.

I'm predicting the 5-Day opening set by HP5 at $16,973,961 will go. Transformers 2 came really close a couple weeks back with $16,294,847 5-Day. While it failed to top HP5's 5-Day opening it did manage to surpassing HP5's 4-Day opening $13,647,361 vs. $12,871,680.

In the past year we've seen a tendenacy for some of the big releases to launch on Wednesday....let's take a look.

Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen - $13,647,361 (or $16,294,847 5-Day - 457 SC)
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $12,871,680 (or $16,973,961 5-Day - 500 SC)
The Dark Knight - $11,779,716 (4-Day or $14,057,430 5-Day - 472 SC)
Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $9,749,937 (4-Day or $13,872,707/ US$5m 5-Day - 406 SC)
James Bond: Quantum Of Solace - $9,729,078 (4-Day or $11,842,887 5-Day - 476 SC)
Fast And Furious - $7,996,484 (or $8,257,835 5-Day - 345 SC)
Spiderman 2 - $7,136,602 (US$4,922,209 4-Day or $8,735,015/ US$6,028,034 5-Day - 441 SC)
War Of The Worlds - $6,647,477 (US$4,993,598 4-Day or $7,847,424/ US$5,895,000 5-Day - 399 SC)
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $6,617,733 (4-Day or $7,971,854 5-Day - 416 SC)
Australia - $6,373,903 (or $7,781,155 5-Day - 643 SC)
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $5,878,128 (or $8,140,638 5-Day - 422 SC)

In fact, 3 of the Top 5 movies last year were 5-Day openers, The Dark Knight, Australia and Quantum of Solace. This year has already seen Fast And Furious, Wolverine, Transformers 2 and Ice Age 3 all open on Wednesday. For pics like Transformers 2 and Ice Age 3 which open during the school holidays, this is an added boost.

There are probably 2 reasons why Transformers 2 could top HP5's 4-Day but not 5-Day. Firstly, it's the HP5 opening day (tops all with the exception of 3x LOTRs and Matrix: Reloaded) and secondly because HP5 and soon HP6, opens on the last weekend of the school holidays...meaning that Sunday may not be as strong comparatively compared to Transformers.

HP5 had a humungous $4.1m opening day which is 2nd only to FOTR's Boxing Day take of $4.12m amongst Wednesday starts. That will surely go as well this time. I'm predicting at least a $4.5m opening day this time around, making it the 3rd largest OD in history. There's also a possibility that the 7-year opening 4-Day weekend record held by LOTR: TTT might finally go. It's going to be very close I think. T2 was oh so close.

Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $5.268m (Fri)
Lord Of The Rings: TTT - $5,230,286
The Matrix: Reloaded - $4,173,881 (Fri)
Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $4,122,770 (US$2.09m - Wed)
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $4,102,282 (US$3.5m - Wed)

Total wise, it's going to be very close between T2 and HP6. T2 has the advantage of 2-weeks school holidays, but Potter is a staple name here and has next to no competition. Both will fight it out at around the $40m mark I think.

Harry Potter 6: HBP - AUD$14m 4-Day // AUD$18.5m 5-Day // AUD$40m - 2.85x

Titanic - AUD$3,175,581 // AUD$57,644,334 - 18.15x
Shrek 2 - AUD$13,159,869 // AUD$50,121,453 - 3.8x
Lord of the Rings: ROTK - AUD$12,752,305 // AUD$49,331,621 - 3.9x
Crocodile Dundee - AUD$47,707,045
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - AUD$9,757,556 // AUD$47,035,700 - 3.5x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - AUD$14,139,499 // AUD$45,588,777 - 3.2x
The Dark Knight - AUD$11,779,716 4-Day // $14,057,430 5-Day // $45.5m - 3.86x
Harry Potter 1: PS - AUD$9,249,505 // AUD$42,310,037 - 4.57x
Transformers 2: Revenge Of The Fallen - AUD$13,647,361 4-Day // $16,294,847 5-Day // $40m est. - 2.93x
Star Wars 1: PM - AUD$9,148,888 // AUD$38,828,310 - 4.24x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - AUD$11,215,765 // AUD$38,051,837 - 3.39x
Finding Nemo - AUD$8,038,861 // AUD$37,394,203 - 4.65x
Harry Potter 2: COS - AUD$10,640,941 // AUD$37,379,563 - 3.5x
Australia - $6,373,903 4-Day // $7,781,155 // $37.3m - 5.85x
Harry Potter 4: GOF - AUD$12,355,237 // AUD$35,448,830 - 2.87x
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - AUD$12,871,680 4-Day // AUD$16,973,961 5-Day // AUD$35.4m - 2.75x
Star Wars 3: ROTS - AUD$13,359,734 // AUD$35,453,636 - 2.65x
Chronicles of Narnia: TLTW&TW - AUD$6,642,424 // AUD$34,988,517 - 5.27x
Meet The Fockers - AUD$2,617,013 // AUD$34,975,476 - 13.3x
Star Wars 2: AOTC - AUD$11,961,798 // AUD$33,862,850 -2.83x
Shrek 3 - AUD$10,344,442 // AUD$33.7m - 3.25x
The Matrix: Reloaded - AUD$11,182,572 // AUD$33,624,930 - 3x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World's End - AUD$12,074,242 // AUD$33.2m - 2.74x
Harry Potter 3: POA - AUD$11,935,745 // AUD$33,030,534 - 2.77x

GERMANY Preview

Might be a surprise to some people but the Potter franchise has only ever top their respective years only once, that was HP4 back in 2005. All other years, HP has been the bridesmade, looks the same with Ice Age 3 primed for a total around 7m admissions.

The HP franchise has been in decline ever since the first two installments, HP3 remains the lowest grosser at 6.5m adms. HP5 was beaten in 2007 by the huge local pic Keinohrhasen which opened during the Christmas period that year. HP5 ruled for 2 weeks until Simpsons took over, that movie made over $36m or 4.6m admissions, blockbuster territory. Ice Age 3 looms over HP6 this time, the franchise has not seen a movie of this scale open so close before it. The closest was 2007 when Shrek 3 opened 3 weeks before HP5, but Shrek 3 (3.9m admissions) is not on the level of IA3.

Opening wise, HP5 was easily the weakest of the franchise over the 4-Day regular opening period admissions wise. However, read deeper into the numbers, HP5 was the first time the franchise opened over 5-Days, and it's 5-Day US$ tally was 2nd only to HP4 overall. This time, it's back to the regular 4-Day. HP6 will open on July 16th, a Thursday.

Hard to gauge where this will open to this time, Ice Age 3's (1.457.891 adms.) weak opening is a worrying sign, is the market in decline? We haven't seen a 1.9m+ 4-Day opening since 2006's Pirates 2. Quantum of Solace came closest at 1.690.853 admissions. The market has also not seen a tally above 7m admissions since HP5, and there's no gaurantees that Ice Age 3 will make it (only my estimate). In addition, only 4 other movies have made more than 6m in recent years...KEINOHRHASEN at 6.286m adms, Ratatouille at 6.1m adms, Pirates 3 at 6.07m adms. and Madagascar 2 at 6.04m admissions. A far cry from 2000-2006 where there were at least 2 movies above 6.5m admissions with the leading movie at the 8m+ levels. I don't think Ice Age 3 and HP6 can return us to these lofty levels. Amogst upcoming international pictures, I can only see HP7-I/II, Hobitt and potentially TinTin having any chance. HP6 looks to become the lowest grossing movie admissions wise. I'm thinking 6m-6.5m admissions.

Harry Potter 6: HBP - 1.7m adms. // 6.3m adms. = 3.8x

Harry Potter 1: PS - 2.590.464 adms. (US$14.8m) // 12.556.007 adms. (US$68m) - 4.84x
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - 1.813.898 adms. (US$12m) // 11.831.850 adms. (US$70.8m) - 6.5x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - 2.021.239 adms. (US$15.2m) // 10.691.738 adms. (US$76m) - 5.3x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - 2.050.755 adms. (US$17.75m) // 10.430.320 adms. (US$90m) - 5.1x
Harry Potter 2: COS - 2.489.952 adms. (US$16.28m) // 9.693.596 adms. (US$60m) = 3.9x
Jurassic Park 1 - 1.742.937 adms. (US$10.5m) // 9.367.216 adms. (US$56.3m) = 5.38x
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - 2.395.588 adms. (US$17.15m) // 8.732.937 adms. (US$63m) = 3.67x
Finding Nemo - 2.032.136 adms. (US$13.3m) // 8.678.707 adms. (US$56.5m) = 4.27x
Star Wars 1: PM - 1.786.960 adms. (US$12.4m) // 8.044.788 adms. (US$55m) = 4.5x
Harry Potter 4: GOF - 2.685.158 adms. (US$21.7m) // 7.915.895 adms. (US$63m) = 2.95x
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - 1.457.891 adms. // 7.2m adms. est. = 5.0x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - 1.924.778 adms. (US$18m) // 7.144.107 adms. (US$61m) = 3.7x
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - 1.682.806 adms. (US$15.5m) 5-Day // 7.076.615 adms. (US$65.9m) = 4.2x
Madagascar - 1.226.475 adms. (US$8.6m) // 6.704.558 adms. (US$43m) = 5.48x
Harry Potter 3: POA - 1.987.285 adms. (US$15.27m) // 6.545.279 adms. (US$48.7m) - 3.3x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: AWE - 1,860,775 adms. (US$16.6m) // 6.079.497 adms. (US$59.4m) = 3.2x
Madagascar 2: Escape 2 Africa - 1.475.967 adms. (US$11.2m) // 6.042.282 adms. (US$46m) = 4.1x
Pirates Of The Caribbean: TCOTBP - 1.193.025 adms. (US$11.6m) // 5.978.657 adms. (US$40.6m) = 5x
Star Wars 2: AOTC - 1.846.885 adms. (US$11.8m) // 5.699.678 adms. (US$35.2m) = 3.08x
Star Wars 3: ROTS - 1.964.960 adms. (US$17.8m) // 5.620.503 adms. (US$46.8m) = 2.86x

Uhh...the first film not only topped its year as well, but it is also still the 2nd-biggest film ever here behind Titanic : )

And I'm pretty sure Harry Potter 6 is going for 7+ million admissions here.

Was he talking about monetary gross or admissions? Cuz HP was behind FOTR in the former regard, obviously.

I've got doubts over this. Naturally, if Ice Age 3 is going to struggle to get there (which i think it will), HP is even more so.

I meant US$. But you're right, it HP1 topped FOTR in 2001.

Ice Age 3 was released during very good weather and weather is now getting a bit worse. Also presales for this Harry Potter flick are the biggest I have seen in years at my theatre...

I so hope you're true though, i love big grosses....

Wednesday:

Australia 15 July 2009
Belgium 15 July 2009
Brazil 15 July 2009
Canada 15 July 2009
China 15 July 2009
Egypt 15 July 2009
France 15 July 2009
Iceland 15 July 2009
Ireland 15 July 2009
Italy 15 July 2009
Japan 15 July 2009
Mexico 15 July 2009
Morocco 15 July 2009
Netherlands 15 July 2009
New Zealand 15 July 2009
Spain 15 July 2009
Sweden 15 July 2009
UK 15 July 2009
USA 15 July 2009
USA 15 July 2009 (IMAX version) (limited)

Thursday:

Austria 16 July 2009
Czech Republic 16 July 2009
Germany 16 July 2009
Hong Kong 16 July 2009
Israel 16 July 2009
Kuwait 16 July 2009
Malaysia 16 July 2009
Peru 16 July 2009
Philippines 16 July 2009
Portugal 16 July 2009
Puerto Rico 16 July 2009
Russia 16 July 2009
Singapore 16 July 2009
Slovakia 16 July 2009
Slovenia 16 July 2009
South Korea 16 July 2009
Ukraine 16 July 2009

Friday:

Bulgaria 17 July 2009
Denmark 17 July 2009
Finland 17 July 2009
India 17 July 2009
Indonesia 17 July 2009
Kazakhstan 17 July 2009
Lithuania 17 July 2009
Norway 17 July 2009
South Africa 17 July 2009
Taiwan 17 July 2009
Turkey 17 July 2009
Venezuela 17 July 2009


Weekend 2:

Argentina 23 July 2009
Croatia 23 July 2009
Hungary 23 July 2009
Lebanon 23 July 2009
Cyprus 24 July 2009
Estonia 24 July 2009
Latvia 24 July 2009
Poland 24 July 2009
Romania 24 July 2009
Canada 29 July 2009 (IMAX version)
USA 29 July 2009 (IMAX version)
Greece 25 August 2009

This will break the WW opening record for sure.

I hope it destroys it!

Hmm, this will make $200+ million OS next weekend.

This fucker is possibly up for 700m OS, making it the third film in history to do so.

I think HP6 will be a worldwide Billion Dollar Baby...

How's the dollar compared to back when the last Potter opened?

dollar is stronger against UK pound, Aussie Dollar,Won, Peso etc while its slightly weaker against Euro. Yen is like 25-30% stronger than OOTP levels.

$700m is a bit of a stretch at this stage, though $600m for sure. So if it's weaker against the Euro then expect even bigger US$ grosses from mainland Europe...it's key region.

Harry Potter opens in Australia tomorrow, I had a look at some of the bigger cinemas in my state and most are averaging 10-15 sessions per day this opening week. That's quite standard for a uber-blockbuster.

The most i've seen was probably for Matrix:Reloaded or Star Wars 3, those had upwards of 15 sessions per day.

Still expecting a monster AUD$4.5m+ opening day. It's going to be huge i'm telling ya

'Harry' expected to become top grossing franchise

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111800 ... Id=13&cs=1

With the midnight bow of "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday night, the Warner Bros.' "Harry Potter" film franchise is poised to become the most magical of all time -- at least in dollars and cents.

The five previous "Harry Potter" pics have grossed $4.48 billion at the worldwide box office. That still trails the roughly $5 billion grossed by the James Bond film franchise (not accounting for inflation), but the boy wizard is expected to overtake agent 007 within the month.

The largest chunk of the franchise's total gross has come from overseas, where J.K. Rowling's book series has been translated into 67 languages.

"Half-Blood Prince" was originally set to open last November, but the studio pushed back the release. The postponement sparked an outcry from Potter fans that has morphed into pent-up demand around the world.

"Half-Blood Prince," the sixth installment in the franchise, goes out in approximately 4,300 theaters domestically and thousands more overseas in 64 territories, including every major market.

On Monday, MovieTickets.com reported 300 sold-out shows for "Half-Blood Prince" at the domestic B.O., including more than 950 midnight showings. That's more than the presales for this summer's "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen."

Online ticketing service Fandango reported that "Half-Blood Prince" is the fastest seller of the year and the biggest of any Potter title.

"Order of the Phoenix," released two years ago nearly to the day, grossed $44 million on its first day at the domestic B.O., including $12 million in midnight shows. Film's five-day opening gross was $139.7 million on its way to cuming $292 million domestically and $646 million overseas.

Film marks the second Potter outing for helmer David Yates, who directed "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix." He's also set to helm the final two films in the franchise, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I" and "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II."

The main cast returns in "Half-Blood Prince," while Jim Broadbent joins the franchise in the role of Professor Horace Slughorn.

Warners feels the July 15 release date for "Half-Blood Prince" gives it ideal positioning.

The freshest holdover is 20th Century Fox's 3-D toon "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs," which heads into its third weekend. "Dawn of the Dinosaurs" plays younger than a Potter pic, so it may not take much of a hit.

Because Imax was obligated to play "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" for at least two more weeks, "Half-Blood Prince" will only open in a handful of Imax theaters, including ones in L.A., New York and Chicago. Yates shot 15 minutes of the film using Imax cameras. Footage will be shown in Imax 3-D.

=======

http://www.thewrap.com/article/potter-m ... rance_4286

"Half-Blood Prince” may be the most expensive “Potter” film yet to produce and market, with the movie reportedly running at $250 million to make and another $155 million to promote worldwide.

Meanwhile, from 2001 to 2007, “Potter” movies generated a hefty $2.7 billion in DVD sales, a revenue source that has declined since then.

That last article is wrong. I read in other places that 250 counts marketing.

Domestic or worldwide?

NO way a blockbuster like HP will just have 250M with marketing. 150M on marketing is not a big deal for a movie like HP. Plus salaries for main leads would have gone up big time since 1st movie. This makes perfect sense.

This and IA3 are gonna be the real overseas champions.

IA3 should be able to crack 500M overseas even if it drops 50% this weekend overseas. Because it will stabilize later.

Well it was domestic not sure about the WW numbers as far as marketing goes. I am just basing this on that OOTP cost 150 without marketing, why would it jump up 100 million without??