Best Picture
500 Days Of Summer (2)
Avatar (9)
Bright Star (2)
The Hurt Locker (3)
Invictus (6)
The Lovely Bones (7)
Nine (13)
Precious (4)
Shutter Island (3)
Up (6)

Thanks to the recent change, most people should get at least 50% correct here. I'm least confident in Funny People because I cant see a BP nominee only getting 2 noms. Just seems crazy. For that reason, I'm guessing someone gets into the acting categories. That Nine number looks huge but remember some of the most nominated films of all time are musicals (Chicago/Mary Poppins - 13, My Fair Lady - 12, West Side Story/Oliver! - 11).

Best Director
James Cameron, Avatar
Jane Campion, Bright Star
Katheryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Lee Daniels, Precious

The real 5. This is the category everyone will be watching. Expect it to match up 5/5 with BP noms. I highly doubt a lone director gets in here.

Best Actor
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Daniel Day Lewis, Nine

I took out previous picks and left 2 slots blank. I'm confident in Freeman and Lewis, DiCap not nearly as much.

Best Actress
Nine cast member
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Hillary Swank, Amelia

That's a pretty solid 5 though dont be surprised if Gabby Sidibe shows up. That would be two nominees under 25 and one that's 15.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

I did quite a bit of cut and paste here. Not sure of any of these picks beyond what award sites are saying. If Smit-McPhee gets in, it would be quite a feat seeing as he's only 13.

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Cheri
Nine Cast Member
Judi Dench, Nine
Mo’Nique, Precious

Nine will rule. I think Leslie Mann has a good shot getting in here, especially if Funny People is to make a run for a BP nom.

Best Original Screenplay
500 Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Up

I removed Rudo and Sugar (not enough info). But these 3 look good. Avatar could be swept in.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious

These 4 look good for now.

Best Editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
Nine


Best Cinematography
Javier Aguirresarobe, The Road
Dion Beebe, Nine
Mauro Fiore, Avatar
Andrew Lesnie, The Lovely Bones

Same as the previous 2 categories, solid (and vanilla) 4.

Best Art Direction
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Public Enemies

Basterds and Public Enemies could miss out here, in support of a bigger. better, more successful production.

Best Costume Design
Cheri
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Public Enemies
Where The Wild Things Are

Same issues as the previous category.

Best Make-Up
Amelia
Nine

Great 2 picks. Meh 3rd.

Best Score
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Brian Eno, The Lovely Bones
Michael Giacchino, Up
James Horner, Avatar
Randy Newman, The Princess and The Frog

For now, I like these 5.

Best Song
Nine
Princess and The Frog
Princess and The Frog

We may not even see this category happen because of new AMPAS rules.

Best Sound Mixing
Avatar
Nine
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

Solid 5.

Best Sound Editing
Avatar
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

Trek has the only chance of sneaking in and its remote.

Best Visual Effects
Avatar
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Set in Stone.

Best Animated Film
A Christmas Carol
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo on the Cliff
The Princess And The Frog
Up

As good as a 5 as I can imagine.

Best Foreign Film
Abrazos Rotos (Spain)

Based on limited info, who knows what the countries will even submit.

Best Documentary
Capitalism: A Love Story
The Cove

^ definite nominee.

It does and it would be the only nominee thats not set in the past or future or that's tech heavy or an acting powerhouse. If any film scrapes by, it has to be Funny People by default. Once the film is screened for critics, we'll get a better idea.

Yeah, I'm not very sold on Funny People's BP chances. Original Screenplay, sure. Picture only if Sandler becomes a frontrunner in the Actor category,

Speaking of which, I think Viggo is pretty solid for The Road even if it doesn't get great reception. It's as dramatic a role as you can get.

I would also place Harry Potter as a possibility for Cinematography (twice nominated Bruno Delbonnel) and Art Direction (8 noms with 3 wins for Stuart Craig). Craig was previously nominated for Goblet of Fire and Scorcerer's Stone.

yeah, no.

you'd know better than I, I haven't seen it. Like I mentioned, who knows what the countries will even submit.

k just cross it out though. trust me, boo.

If only Art Direction wasn't so crowded this year...though as long as it's staying as well-received as it is already, goodwill can push it through.

Cinematography is a distinct possibility, Delbonnel's definitely adding something here.

I can see Transformers being snubbed if the love of Potter is strong enough.

Plus Star Trek + Transformers both ILM.

Potter is mostly 3rd party I think.

If you start adding Cinematography and Art Direction and a Supporting Actor for Broadbent and 10 nominees all together you do have a contendor for BP (if the reviews are there).

Remember, the point of this change was to get things like Star Trek and Potter recognized.

Actually, I could see Transformers get shut out. It is a pretty terrible film and they did give a fuck-you to the original.

I don't think Potter can really get beyond Cinematography, Art Direction and maybe Visual Effects. The score isn't John Williams anymore, the costume design's been more contemporary since Cuaron. Plus it has a shitload of competition in Funny People, Up, Star Trek, Avatar.

I would argue its more for films like Up and Avatar. Potter has almost run its course without any Oscar wins after 5 films and Star Trek is a reboot of a decades old tv series turned previously ruined film franchise.

Up has pedigree. Avatar has pedigree. upcoming films like The Hobbit and TDK II have pedigree.

Transformers is getting a visual effects nom.

GUARANTEED.

Harry Potter VI is an incredibly great looking film, I think a nom in Cinematography would be well-deserved. I do think however that it would be the sole nomination. I wasn't as impressed with its Production Design.

HP6 getting a Best Picture nom would kill the Oscars for me. The prestige of it would just be... gone

It's been gone. For a LONG time.

Can see 500 Days getting in if the box office takes off and it becomes the indie success story of 2009. The past 2 years in particular have been very kind to comedies in this category. 7/10 were in the haha genre.



switched out Jackson and Marshall for Daniels and Campion.

Adjust your ballots, Wolfie is moving to 2010! Make-Up race opens up

Dumped Funny People out of Original Screenplay

Added The Cove to Best Documentary and 500 Days to Best Picture

Dropped Michelle out of Lead Actress for someone from Nine and added Meryl.

In exchange and to keep the nomination tally the same, I dropped one of the acting performances from Nine out of Supporting Actress.

Best Picture:
Avatar
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
The Road
Shutter Island
Up

Best Director:
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
Nine
The Lovely Bones
The Road

Best Original Screenplay:
The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
Up

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Precious
The Road
Up In The Air

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Viggo Mortensen, The Road

Best Actress:
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Hillary Swank, Amelia

Best Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon, Invictus
James Gandolfini, In The Loop
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress:
Marion Cotillard, Public Enemies
Judi Dench, Nine
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Emily Mortimer, Shutter Island

Best Cinematography:
Harry Potter And The Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
Nine
The Road

Best Editing:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Public Enemies
The Lovely Bones
Nine

Best Art Direction:
Avatar
The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Where The Wild Things Are

Best Costume Design:
The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus
Public Enemies
Nine
The Tempest
Where The Wild Things Are

Best Makeup:
Avatar
The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus
Star Trek

(that's it for now)

so Nine has the most noms with 8 then?

I guess. By the way, watch out for Doctor Parnassus and Where The Wild Things Are, one of them can easily blow into the ten or Screenplay categories with the right box office. Especially Parnassus, which is getting amazing reception and Gilliam is overdue (even if he's blatantly anti-Hollywood).

Thompsoncory saw it at Cannes and liked it.

I think Where The Wild Things Are would get in before Doctor Parnassus.