HARRY POTTER 6: Half-Blood Prince (INTL.)



Harry Potter 5: OOTP - viewtopic.php?f=12&t=31574
Harry Potter 4: GOF - viewtopic.php?f=12&t=13821

The release of a new Harry Potter flick is always a box-office event. You're always gauranteed strong grosses both domestically and internationally (especially). Enjoy it kids, there's only 3 more to go. You can't get more solid than this in today's franchise-laden box office world...only the final two installments of the Pirates of the Caribbean series has come close in recent years.

This is the longest between drinks for the Potter; a full two years after Order of the Phoenix carried the franchise back into the $900m worldwide club. It was however the first the franchise did not claim the #1 spot on the international charts (beaten by Pirates 3, but not by much). On the worldwide front, Potter's yearly ranking is #1 (HP1), #2 (TTT, HP2), #2 (Shrek 2, HP3), #1 (HP4) and #2 (Pirates 3, HP5). Hardly a weak scorecard if you ask me. Expect the same this year, it should easily claim the top spot for Summer 2009 and really only has Avatar to be nervous about (just because it's a darkhorse at this stage, could well turn into another King Kong).

HP5 did extremly well in a very competitive July/August 2007 frame. The pressure was on with Transformers, Die Hard 4 and The Simpsons all bringing it; and in some markets, it also had to contend with Shrek The Third which had a delayed release in late-June. The openings were huge as expected and it delivered in all markets. Tallies were very impressive:

United Kingdom - $101,360,911 (#1 in 2007)
Japan - $80,564,009 (#2 in 2007 behind Pirates 3)
Germany - $65,901,311 (#1 in 2007)
France - $51,829,614 (#3 in 2007 behind Ratatouille, Spiderman 3)
Australia - $29,409,933 (#1 in 2007)
Italy - $26,410,993
Spain - $24,972,080 (#5 in 2007)
South Korea - $24,765,134 (#6 in 2007)
Mexico - $24,736,826 (#2 in 2007)

HP5's international opening in 44 markets and 13,317 prints is the 3rd largest of All-Time (behind Spiderman 3 and Pirates 3). Had it opened in as many markets as SM3 and Pirates3, the Top 3 could well be different to what it is now.

1) Spiderman 3 - $230,544,376 (6-Day - All Markets - 75/107/16,711)
2) Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $216,361,000 (5-Day or $172.5m 3-Day – All except China/India – 102/17,600)
3) Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $193,000,000 ($185,215,578 5-Day or $148,768,692 3-Day incl. $2.1m on 35 - All except Japan/China - 44/13317)
4) The Da Vinci Code - $155,000,649 ($152,447,236 - All markets - 57/12,182) or $212m week
5) Star Wars 3: ROTS - $145,534,793 (All except Japan/SKorea - 105c/114t//10,489)

Worldwide, it's very much the same as well...

1) Spiderman 3 - $151,116,516 + $230,544,376 = $381,660,892 (6-Days - 107/16,711)
2) Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $127,972,864 + $216,361,000 = $344,333,864 (5-Days - 102/17,600)
3) Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $139,715,157 + $193,000,000 = $332,715,157 (5-Days)
4) Star Wars 3: ROTS - $145,534,793 + $158,449,700 = $303,984,493 (5-Days - 105c/114t/10,489)
5) Indiana Jones: The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - $125,178,907 + $146,388,656 = $271,567,563 (55/8427)

Harry Potter 6, will have a more aggressive international rollout than HP5. Both Japan and China which were left out in the previous installment, now receives HP6 on the same week as the rest of the world. This will be the widest Harry Potter release to date and expect the Top 5 overseas opening positions to change yet again. I can see it beating HP5's opening overseas, but it might struggle to take the Top 2 positions away from Spiderman 3 and Pirates 3. The exchange rates are weaker this time to the USD$, so it will need to do even more than HP5. It does have a slightly less competition this time around. If it can withstand Shrek 3/Transformers/Simpsons/DieHard4 it can surely handle Ice Age 3/Transformers 2/Bruno. I'm putting this slightly lower than HP5 overseas, only because of the exchange rates. In local dollars, it should be at least on par with HP5 in most markets.

This is my pick for the #1 pick worldwide this year.

1) Titanic - $600,788,188 + $1,242,091,767 = $1,842,879,955
2) Lord of the Rings: ROTK - $377,027,325 + $741,861,654 = $1,118,888,979
3) Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - $423,315,812 + $642,344,000 = $1,065,659,812
4) The Dark Knight - $533,345,358 + $468,576,467 = $1,001,921,825
5) Harry Potter 1: PS - $317,575,550 + $657,158,000 = $974,733,550
6) Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: AWE - $309,420,425 + $651,576,067 = $960,996,492
7) Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $292,004,738 + $646,464,126 = $938,468,864
8) Lord of the Rings: TTT - $341,786,758 + $584,500,642 = $926,287,400
9) Star Wars 1: PM - $431,088,301 + $493,229,257 = $924,317,558
10) Shrek 2 - $441,226,247 + $478,612,511 = $919,838,758

Jurassic Park 1 - $357,067,947 + $557,623,171 = $914,691,118
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $290,013,036 + $605,908,000 = $895,921,036
Spiderman 3 - $336,530,303 + $554,341,323 = $890,871,626
Harry Potter 2: COS - $261,988,482 + $616,655,000 = $878,643,482
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - $314,776,170 + $556,592,194 = $871,368,364
Finding Nemo - $339,714,978 = $524,911,000 = $864,625,978
Star Wars 3: ROTS - $380,270,577 + $469,727,028 = $849,997,605
Spiderman 1 - $403,706,375 + $418,002,176 = $821,708,551
Shrek The Third - $322,719,944 + $476,237,137 = $798,957,081
Harry Potter 3: POA - $249,541,069 + $546,093,000 = $795,634,069
Indiana Jones: TKOTCS - $317,101,119 + $469,534,914 = $786,636,033
Spiderman 2 - $373,585,825 + $410,180,516 = $783,766,341
Chronicles of Narnia: TLTW&TW - $291,710,957 + $453,073,000 = $744,783,957
Pirates of the Caribbean 1: TCOTBP - $305,413,918 + $348,850,097 = $654,264,015
Star Wars 2: AOTC - $310,676,740 + $338,721,588 = $649,398,328

Harry Potter 6: Half-Blood Prince
Domestic = $50m OD, $155m 5-Day, $320m Total
Overseas = $625m
Worldwide = $945m

UNITED KINGDOM - Preview

June 26th - Year One
July 1st - Ice Age 3 (Wed)
July 10th - Bruno
July 15th - Harry Potter 6 (Wed)
July 22nd - The Proposal (Wed)
July 31st - G-Force

Summer 2009 here in the UK will surely drop off the cliff after HP6, there's simply nothing around that'll give Ice Age 3/Bruno and HP6 any competition during July/August.

Harry Potter is the quintessential franchise in this market, all previous installments have performed magnificently above the 40m pound region (the lowest being HP3 at 45m). The only franchise to have registered higher averages is Lord of the Rings whose lowest pic TTT is at 57m (and the last two James Bond flicks). The previous two Potter installments have averaged around the 49m mark, a good target for HP6.

The Potter pics have been devastingly strong openers, occupying 4 of the Top 10 positions in USD$ (HP1 the only one not to feature) and has the strongest 3-Day start of all-time (HP4 at £14,933,901) largest 3-Day with previews (£18,871,829 by HP2), largest 4-Day start (HP5 at £16,493,305) and the largest start of all-time, HP3's 7-Day take of £23,882,688 (Mon-Sun). HP3 still has the opening day record at $9.23m (£5,031,877)...though, Quantum of Solace came dangerously close last year with $8m (£4.94m). In terms of all-time tallies, Harry Potter now ranks #3 (HP1), #8 (HP2), #13 (HP5), #15 (HP4), #18 (HP3) combining to over 263m pounds to date.

Harry Potter 5 was explosive out of the gates, registering the largest opening over the the 4-Day frame, 2nd largest outright in US$ (behind HP3's extended opening) and displacing Shrek 3 which opened two weeks before its run (note: Shrek 3's opening was boosted by at least US$12.7m previews). HP5 continued it's mammoth run into the 2nd week, making US$61.8m in 10 Days (2 weekends), a record which still stands to this day and it became the 1st Potter movie to cross US$100m, 4th movie to do so after (Titanic, ROTK and Casino Royale). Even the combined powers of Simpsons and Transformers didn't stop HP5 from becoming the #1 movie of 2007 with £49,136,969...topping Pirates 3 (£40,125,303), The Simpsons Movie (£38,312,694) and Shrek 3 (£38,079,462).

Harry Potter 6 is already favourite to take out the 2009 crown here. Only 2 Potter movies have failed to take out their respective years (HP2 at #2 lost to TTT) and (HP3 at #2 lost to Shrek 2). Nothing will come closer this year. It's competition Ice Age 3 and Bruno are following on from pretty solid predecessors. Ice Age 2 opened to US$17m (incl. $4.1m p/v) ending up with a meaty US$55m while Borat opened to $11.8m and ended up grossing $47m. So I wouldn't be surprised if they take the cap off HP6's opening potential a little bit. Though with a 5-Day opening this time, expect Potter to scream past 16m pounds of HP5, total wise, expect somewhere around 50m pounds.

Mamma Mia - £5,204,651 (US$10.3m) // £69,166,087 (US$132m) = 13.29x
Titanic - £4,805,270 (US$8m) // £69,025,646 (US$113) = 14.37x
Harry Potter 1: PS - £16,335,627 (US$23m) // £66,096,060 (US$91.5m) = 4.04x
Lord of the Rings: FOTR - £11,058,045 (US$15.9m) // £63,051,172 (US$89.5m) = 5.7x
Lord of the Rings: ROTK - £15,021,761 (US$20.9m) // £61,062,348 (US$109m) = 4.06x
Lord of the Rings: TTT - £13,063,560 (US$26.5m) // £57,654,384 (US$93m) = 4.41x
James Bond: Casino Royale - £13,370,969 (US$25.3m) // £55,495,547 ($109m) = 4.15x
Harry Potter 2: COS - £18,871,829 (US$29.8m) // £54,780,731 (US$85.7m) = 2.9x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: DMC - £13,740,784 (US$25.4m) // £51,998,090 (US$98m) = 3.78x
James Bond: Quantum of Solace - £15,384,217 (US$25.3m) // £51,070,677 (US$81m) = 3.3x
Star Wars 1: PM - £9,512,295 (US$14.9m) // £51,063,811 (US$83m) = 5.37x
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - £16,493,305 ($33.5m) // £49,136,969 (US$101.4m) x2.97x
The Dark Knight - £11,191,824 (US$22.2m) // £48,824,392 (US$89) = 4.36x
Harry Potter 4: GOF - £14,933,901 (US$25.6m) // £48,769,962 (US$86m) = 3.26x
Shrek 2 - £16,220,752 (US$29.6m) // £48,104,138 (US$88.1m) = 3x
Harry Potter 3: POA - £23,882,688 (US$43.7m) // £46,077,489 (US$84.5m) = 1.93x
Chronicles of Narnia: TLTW&TW - £8,884,111 ($15.6m) // £43,903,853 (US$77m) = 4.94x
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At Worlds End -£13,412,294 (US$26.6m) // £40,646,683 (US$83m) = 3x

Harry Potter 6: HBP - £19m (US$31m) // £52m (US$86m) = 2.8x

Harry Potter will be huge in the UK, because of the break.

I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole, but alot of children here like it.

Damn, whoever thought a film like Mama Mia was going to be the one to take down Titanic in the U.K.

Mamma Mia being #1 in the UK is just ridiculous, the movie isn't even good.

What do the christians have against harry potter?
I am a VERRYY devoted christian. I go to church EVERY WEEK and youth group too, so do not question the integrity of my faith. I, unlike many christians think that the harry potter book series is very imaginative and, quite frankly, one of the best book series I have ever read. It is a FICTION book. JK Rowling is NOT trying to pass it off as truth! So why are some people getting all upset over it? Harry Potter has turned millions of people on to reading, which is a great thing! Its not like Harry Potter is giving us a complete book of spells to try! It does not give us satanic goals to accomplish, like spreading evil. Infact, there are great morals and lessons learned from the books like, good triumphs over evil, and keeping your friends close, and about standing up for what you believe in. It is a childrens book, written by a childrens author. Nothing more. I am soo angry when people try to say that it is an evil book with evil intentions and an alternate agenda.
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^ What are you talking about? No one referenced it.
Also Mamma Mia! being #1 is indeed ridiculous.

Yeah I didn't see anybody mention that. The whole Christian boycotting thing is pretty over the last of that crowd was that crazy woman in Georgia.

No offence but that post was definately out of left field. LOL, like just out of nowhere. I was beginning to think that you posted in the wrong thread (Angels & Demons) perhaps???

LOL I know, who knows.

I know what that person was talking about and I totally agree.
I can't play Harry Potter in my video store despite it's PG rating
because there are some idiots who are offended because "it has
witchcraft".

Didn't know Wisconsin was this bad...


Anyway, this will be huge overseas. Will completely anihilate Transformers 2 in Europe. I see $650+ million OS.

I can see $600m, but $650m is in unsure territory. I'm expecting a huge fight between IA and HP6...finally a decent overseas battle.

12 Days to go..... ,

Yeah this will be the big international film this year.

I think that Pottermania is in decline since the last book was released but still it will make milions of $. But I expect a decline from OOTP. In US it will make 250m + 580m Intl = 830m $

May be, but as you get closer the the close....expect it to increase.

LOL, for those who've read the last book,

the box office opens at the close

I disagree no way does it that low domestic. It should make at least 285. The Potter fans are still very loyal and will show up. It does depend on the dollar for its OS numbers but I'd see at least 600. I am thinking about 880-920 WW.

$250m is even lower than HP3, yep no way. This movie has the rest of July and August to itself, it's probably certain for $280m and $300m is likely.

Worldwide, Looks to gross $600m at least with $650m a possibility.

Alll in all it'll be around where the first Potter flick is on the worldwide charts.

Adjusted? Because unadjusted HP3 made $249 million.


Anyway, won't make anything lower than $275 million.

Ice Age 3's dissapointment can only help Potter.....

The upcoming question:
Will HP break the record for the biggest WW opening 6 days?
It will be close. Right now I see 150m in US+ 230m internationally, and maybe 625m WW after 14 days!

It's not going to be easy to surpass Spiderman 3's record.

RottenTomatoes is currently at 96%, doing well with only 1 out of 24 reviews rotten. Average Rating is 7.4


Harry Potter 3: POA - 24-201 = 89% (AVG. = 7.8/10)
Harry Potter 4: GOF - 25-188 = 88% (AVG. = 7.4/10)
Harry Potter 2: COS - 35-163 = 82% (AVG. = 7.1/10)
Harry Potter 1: SS - 40-142 = 78% (AVG. = 7/10)
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - 52-177 = 77% (AVG. = 6.8/10)

If it's anywhere neat GOF, i'll be really happy.