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 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.) - $690.4 million 
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Post Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.) - $690.4 million
I'm surprised there isn't such a thread yet.

This is going to be HUGE overseas. I see it easily beating Transformers 2 in the overseas market and ending up as the #2 film of the year OS (only behind Harry Potter).


The overseas grosses of the first two installments and similar flicks:


Ice Age - $206.9 million
Ice Age: The Meltdown - $456.6 million

Madagascar - $339.1 million
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa - $422.3 million
Kung-Fu Panda - $419.8 million
Ratatouille - $415 million

Finding Nemo - $524.9 million
Shrek 2 - $478.7 million
Shrek The Third - $476.2 million



The lower three films are, to date, the highest-grossing animated films overseas. Yep, Nemo is still the only animated film to have made $500+ million OS (mostly thanks to its $100+ million take in Japan).


I expect Ice Age 3 to take at least the #2 spot among the biggest overseas animated films ever. It does have a chance to beat Finding Nemo if it has a similar increase to Madagascar 2 over its last film. However, I do think that Ice Age 2 maxed out the potential in some of its territories, so Nemo won't be easy to get.


_____________________________________________________________________________


Some of Ice Age: The Meltdown's overseas grosses:

Germany - $59,754,130 (it got over 8.7 million admissions here and stands as the biggest CG animated film of all time here and it also has the 4th-biggest opening weekend ever to date in Germany).

France - $48,424,106

Italy - $25,985,050

Mexico - $29,448,504

Russia - $19,225,522

Spain - $23,647,672

South Korea - $5,301,013

UK - $52,328,887

Brazil - $19,909,620

China - $4,550,647

Japan - $7,954,041

________________________________________________________________________________

As you can see, it flopped in Asia mostly and was amazingly HUGE in Europe. I think it has good potential to increase in Russia, Japan and China, but might decrease in Brazil and Mexico.


It opens simultaneously in almost all markets this weekend (except for Japan, South Korea, China and Italy).


I see a very very big weekend for it. Something around $150-170 million could very well happen.



Overall, I predict a $510 million overseas gross for it.

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Last edited by Dr. Lecter on Fri Jul 24, 2009 12:32 am, edited 3 times in total.



Thu Jul 02, 2009 5:20 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
First day for IA3 was very good in Poland. It had 108k adm. ( Transformers 2 made the same during OW )

If it will keep up with this pace then I see 5 day opening between 400-450k adm. ( if the weather is bad then it can reach 500k adm. )


Thu Jul 02, 2009 5:47 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
I am not feeling it man.

I think this will do 400-430M million overseas.

IA2 was massive because

1) IA1 was great
2) It was marketed very well worldwide.
3) It had a dream run overseas. It did $47M, $93M, $56M, 40M and 25M in first, second, third, fourth and fifith weekend respectively. Third weekend was easter weekend. It remained #1 5 weekend in a row overseas until MI3.

IA3 on the other hand has several hurdles
1) IA2 had mixed wom
2) Marketing hasn't been as good as IA2 simply because fox has run out of innovative ideas to market this franchise
3) Has to deal with TF2 this weekend overseas, HP6 is gonna come out in 2 weeks so who knows maybe audiences will decide to skip this in favour of that.


I am just hoping it cracks $600M worldwide.

I am impressed how blue sky studios is able to make animated movies on a budget of 100M or less while dreamworks and pixar are spending $150+ million on their animated movies lately which is largely due to animation but blue sky studios deliver similar quality of animation yet they somehow know how to control budgets.

IA - 59M budget
IA2 - 80M budget
IA3 - 90M budget


Thu Jul 02, 2009 5:47 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
IA 3 had a great start here in Switzerland: 13,000 admissions since yesterday. ROTF after 1 week: 37,000 admissions.

IA 2: more than one million admissions TOTAL, which made it the number three movie of the last 30 years after Titanic and Finding Nemo.


Thu Jul 02, 2009 5:52 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
Any early numbers from germany. Its performance in major markets would determine its OS total.

It has one advantage that Euro has appreciated since IA2 release and that should help.

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Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:10 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
I hope it doesn't make more than 400m overseas.

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Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:27 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
The potential in China definitely looks good, being released only a week after the U.S. debut. Won't do as well as Kung Fu Panda, but should break $10m.

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Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:30 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
I don't know where this supposed idea that Ice Age: The Meltdown had mixed WOM came from. If anything, it has better WOM than the first. Ice Age on Yahoo has a B; Ice Age: The Meltdown has a B+. I also found the second to be much better than the first too.


Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:34 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
Dr. Lecter...I don't see more than $500m for this one....somewhere around $430-$460m more like

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Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:30 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
I'm not feeling it either. First estimates in Germany have it opening to only about half the numbers of the 2nd, admission wise. I see it doing $150m-170m in NA and $350m-$400m OS.

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Fri Jul 03, 2009 11:17 am
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
all those bad news...


keep it coming..

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Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:07 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
From cine-directors.

France Weekend(projections)

1 L'âge de glace 3 2 500 000 New 2500 - M$ 783
2 Transformers 2 la revanche 500 000 -55.00% 1616 200 M$ 648

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Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:28 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
Well for one thing, the last Ice Age opened in the spring, so didn't have to deal with real summer competition overseas, which it will this time around. As big as Ice Age 2 was overseas, if moviegoers have to choose between it, and HP6, they'll probably pick Harry and co. The exchange rate will also greatly bring down its grosses.


Fri Jul 03, 2009 8:12 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
Currency is not that big a deal. 2006 spring dollar was still way stronger than mid 2007 to 1st half 2008. That was when dollar really went down.

But competition is a major factor and insidekino mentioned good weather this weekend would limit its OW in germany.

France number is great and we have not yet got any numbers from other big markets. We should probably wait until this weekend numbers come out.

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Fri Jul 03, 2009 11:22 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
Maybe not to the degree of domestic opening, but I think Ice Age's foreign gross will be disappointing comparing to expectation as well, especially with HP6 on its heels.

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Sat Jul 04, 2009 1:25 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
Looks like opening weekend should be around 1.4m-1.55m admissions here in Germany - comparable to the first one but down a lot compared to IA2.
Still the biggest opening of the year by far and the biggest opening since QUANTUM (or MADAGASCAR 2) despite summer heat...

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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
The summer heat really hurt it. However, I think that if the weather cools down a bit, this is looking at some really good legs because the summer break is just starting at most schools in Germany. I still think it can pass 7 million admissions with some luck...

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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
Overseas, “Ice Age 3” grossed $148 million as it opened on 11,652 screens in 101 markets around the globe. It’s domestic weekend take was an estimated $42.5 million for a five-day opening cume of $67.5 million.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111800 ... 1&nid=2255

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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
mark66 wrote:
Overseas, “Ice Age 3” grossed $148 million as it opened on 11,652 screens in 101 markets around the globe. It’s domestic weekend take was an estimated $42.5 million for a five-day opening cume of $67.5 million.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111800 ... 1&nid=2255


That is a very good opening over 5 days.


Sun Jul 05, 2009 3:44 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
Quote:
Fox's "Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" seized the No. 1 spot on the foreign circuit during the July 4 weekend as the third installment of the family-oriented series drew an estimated $148 million from 11,652 screens in 101 markets.

The opening-weekend tally set an overseas record for an animation film and was the sixth-biggest for any film. It also is the largest foreign introduction of a 3D title, said Paul Hanneman, co-president of Fox theatrical international.

Hanneman also said that the 18% of screens that showed "Ice Age" in 3D (2,126) provided 34% of the boxoffice take ($51 million). Early returns from U.K. show the 3D version in the No. 1 market spot, with the conventional theatrical edition ranked No. 2.

The threequel set overseas records for biggest weekend openings in 16 markets including Russia, Mexico and Brazil. Opening-weekend records for an animation title were set in 11 other territories including France, India and Greece. The top individual market was Russia, with $18.9 million.

The huge foreign opening more than doubled the $67.5 million No. 1 debut of the previous installment, 2006's "Ice Age: The Meltdown."



I cannot believe this movie has set record for animaton movie in India. Animation movies in general do very poorly in India. Lately hollywood flicks have been doing very well there all thanks to the local multiplex strike that happened but now is over. People who generally weren't into hollywood movies are now watching it.

What is impressive about IA3 record in India is that it released against a massively hyped movie Kambakht Ishq that stars aksjay kumar, kareena, sylvester stallone, denise richards and brandon routh, which has the second biggest opening weekend of all time for a local flick in India.


Sun Jul 05, 2009 3:50 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
It grossed 18.9M in 5 days in russia while IA2 did 19M TOTAL!!! :shock:


Sun Jul 05, 2009 4:04 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
148m??

wtf

18.9m in Russia??

wtf

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Sun Jul 05, 2009 5:45 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
As expected, this is huge overseas. And it still has a few overseas markets to open in. With China, Japan and Italy on this very weekend, it would have approached $160 million overseas.

I think it's gonna go for $450+ million OS for sure, even with Harry Potter.

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Sun Jul 05, 2009 8:01 pm
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Post Re: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (INTL.)
Is there a country by country breakdown anywhere...can't see any (blast the Independence Day weekend).

Expect a massive gross in Australia, that's for certain, it's Opening Day alone was mightily impressive.

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Post ScreenDaily Report
Quote:
Ice Age: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs crushed all before it as an estimated $148m haul from 101 markets through Fox delivered the sixth biggest
international launch ever and the biggest animated debut in history.

The extraordinary result surpassed its predecessor and ranked number one in most territories, setting a string of industry records. The
animated release combined with the $67.5m number one North American opening to move past $215m worldwide in its first weekend.

Paramount/DreamWorks’ Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen cruised towards $300m in its second weekend through PPI, while Sony’s one-two
punch from Angels & Demons and Terminator Salvation saw those films reach $342m and $228m, respectively.

Ice Age 3 went out on 11,652 screens and the 3D result was significant, delivering $51m from 2,126 screens for 34% of the total
revenue from 18% of the screens in what was the widest and most lucrative 3D launch ever.

It is worth bearing in mind that premium price points for 3D ticket sales often lead to a disproportionately high figure when compared to
the screen count.

The overall debut ranks behind only Pirates Of The Caribbean 3 on $251m, Spider-Man 3 on $230.9m, Harry Potter 5 on $185.3n,
Transformers 2 on $165.4m, and The Da Vinci Code’s $155m.

Fox International executives noted that if Ice Age 3 were compared to Transformers 2 in the same territories (the animated release is yet to
open in China, Japan, South Korea and Italy) it in fact surpassed PPI’s hit by $27.5m. Similarly, it beat The Da Vinci Code by $23.4m.

The film set new industry marks in well over a dozen territories, among them Russia on $18.9m (589m roubles), Mexico on $10m (132.4m
pesos) for 65% market share, Brazil on $10.3m, and Austria on $3.4m (€2.4m).

Germany produced $16.6m and the UK delivered $13.1m (£7.9m) including two days of previews, while France’s $15.7m (€11.1m) was one of more
than ten territories that produced all-time animated launch records. Another was India, where Ice Age 3 grossed $395,000 (19m rupees).

In other key markets, the film managed $9m in Spain, $6.5m in Australia, $3m in Switzerland for the second biggest animated launch
behind Ice Age 2, and $2m in Norway for once again the silver medal in the all-time animated pantheon behind Ice Age 2. There was a notable
result too in Hong Kong, where it took $1.9m from 67 screens including a record $1.6m from 50 3D screens.


http://www.screendaily.com/news/distrib ... 88.article

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