Saw this on Google News:

"In fact on Monday, movie ticket site Fandango.com reported that hundreds of midnight showings ahead of Wednesday's debut already are sold out, and advance sales on Fandango are double what they were at this same time ahead of "Transformers."

That was an interesting read! Im getting the same feeling, they havnt amped this one up as THE event pic of the summer. That could cost them anywhere between $50 to $120m in BO.

Good sign

So in America has the hype not been amped?
I mean Bay's letter was on the 4th of May so its now a month and a half later. Well?

Tough to say. I can see where people are coming from with the talk of laid-back marketing instead of AMAZING marketing, but...everyone I know is still seeing it by the end of the weekend.

From notfabio...How is this looking?

Is that Potter number for Half-Blood Prince? Or is that from Order of the Phoenix?

Anyway, that looks really good.

The new one...HBP

Much better than the previous update. The last update had HP5 at 2100 (est) last year, so Transformers 2 getting there. If we compare pre-sales.

Nice for Potter too this early.

Early Predictions

1. Transformers - 94.0m (159.1)
2. The Hangover - 18.9m
3. The Proposal - 18.7m
4. Up - 16.1m
5. My Sister's Keeper - 11.5m
6. Year One - 8.1m
7. The Taking of Pelham 123 - 6.4m
8. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian - 4.7m
9. Star Trek - 3.5m
10. Land of the Lost - 2.0m

NRG tracking has not been posted anywhere that I've found since last fall. Mason used to post it approximately until he got in trouble, and Wells used to post it but stopped around the same time, perhaps for the same reason.

I believe that 'MTC' uses this service.

The Weekend Warrior is predicting a 180m 5 day for Trans II

That's too much, IMO.

Yeah I say 165-170 right now.

its appears it will open huge for the 5-day.


It will though fall after that however not like spiderman 3, well because of next week being full of Holidays.

I see 108/170

My first and final pre-estimates prediction.

Final Predictions

1. Transformers II - $105 million (NEW)
2. The Proposal - $20.2 million (-39.9%)
3. The Hangover - $16.2 million (-39.4%)
4. Up - $15.1 million (-35.7%)
5. My Sister's Keeper - $9.5 million (NEW)
6. Year One - $6.7 million (-65.8%)
7. The Taking of Pelham 123 - $5.8 million (-51.8%)
8. Night at the Museum II - $3.9 million (-50.0%)
9. Star Trek - $3.3 million (-40.1%)
10. Land of the Lost - $1.7 million (-61.0%)

Transformers II
Wednesday: $63 million
Thursday: $26.5 million (-58%)
Friday: $37 million (+40%)
Saturday: $40.7 (+10%)
Sunday: $26.5 million (-30%)

From notfabio for today...


As of 2pm EST TFRM2 has already outgrossed TERM4's opening day -- nm

Since hsx is down, where did you get this number.

Before it went down.

My Derby Predictions.

1. Transformers II - $108.1m
(Based on the 55m guesstimate for Wednesday, I guessed the pattern for the rest, which pretty much ensures a 100m+ opening weekend).

2. The Proposal - $19.5m (-42%)
(It will be good counterprogramming, but it has one new competitor).

3. The Hangover - $16.1m (-40%)
(It may lose some men, although it should get one the lower drops in the top ten still).

4. Up - $15.0m (-36%)
(It will have the 3D screens all to itself for one last weekend, although the drop will be bigger than last week because of an inflated Sunday last weekend).

5. My Sister's Keeper - $12.5m
(No real thought, so I decided to agree with tracking with this one).

6. Year One - $6.5m (-67%)
(It will take the biggest hit this weekend with the most direct demo competition of the bunch, and mediocre WOM)

7. The Taking of Pelham 123 - $5.4m (-55%)
(The inflated Sunday last weekend won't make this weekend any better).

8. Night at the Museum II - $3.5m (-55%)
(It will take a huge hit this time because it loses all of it's IMAX theater).

9. Star Trek - $2.8m (-49%)
(The inflated Sunday last weekend and new competition will hurt it this time).

10. Land of the Lost - $1.6m (-63%)
(I am assuming that it will lose alot of theater, and with new competition, it's bound to take a big dive)

Top Ten Total - 191.0m (+8% from last year) sooo...

Well, I'm glad I put in preliminary picks earlier this week, because I completely
spaced on the derby this yesterday. My Transformers is probably too low (101.4M), but
won't kill me, and my Year One is definitely too high (8.8M). Aside from that, I
think I'm still okay.

Why did they close it so early. Grrrrrrrr. I did not update my numbers after I put some numbers on tuesday.

Same here. I didn't realize they closed early with the Wednesday opener. I
guess since the prediction is for the 3-days, I assumed they would close like
normal.

Fuck. I only saw that the derby was for June 26-28, and missed the damn Wed deadline. There goes my year. Funny how BOM currently says 'Deadline Tonight' on their home page. I guess I'll be doing early Tuesday predictions from now on to be safe. Damn them - would it really be so terrible if everyone got to predict knowing the Wednesday numbers? Christ.

Did BOM's homepage say 'deadline tonight' on Wednesday for the derby?