Agree. No movie has done anything until it does it.

RS Update
-- notfabio, Jun 21, 22:56

TRANSFORMERS: Mid 170's (5 day)
SISTERS KEEPER: Low double digits

Future:
Public: Almost Mid- 40's (5 day)

Potter: Mid 140's (5 day)

ICE AGE: Almost high 80's (5 day)

BRUNO: Low 40's

Beth Coooper: Mid Single Digits (this is in line with other services, keep in mind this is Fox Atomic)

Looks about right for Transformers. That is ok for Bruno and Public Enemies. What did OOTP do for it is five days 130ish?

HP5 made 139,715,157 over its 1st 5-days. This tracking number is really good though RS numbers have been terrible off late except probably for couple of films(they were quite close to Wolverine and aced Drag me during the release week).

I suspect they are basing their tracking off of what they suspect Potter will do. It looks right now since the fanbase is very loyal and I could see that kind of increase because of inflation. I don't see it doing more than 150 over the 5 days.

I don't mean to say records can't be broken. It's just rather typical for people to expect five day openings like this to be ridiculously big, and when they aren't, there's an initial disappointment that's altogether unfounded. Spider-Man 2 and even the first Transformers had this occur on here to some extent.

I just realized that the following weekend is July 4th. Which is on a Saturday. That is going to be heck to try and predict daily numbers as July 4th has never fallen on a Saturday for at least 7+ years. It's normally a deflated day which I'm guessing makes for a flat Saturday.

The last time the 4th was on a Saturday was 1998, when looking at the dailies for that, almost everything dropped, some in the teens, and some in the 20's (kidpics took the harshest drops). Then on Sunday, every film that dropped on the 4th increases (either slightly or in the teens). But since 1998 was a whole lot different in terms of IM's and mood for a 4th of July, predicting will be trickier than ever.

Formers 162 5 day
Sis 11

MTC being lower than RS is generally bad news. I think its 5-day will be even lower than MTC number.

Think MTC is low on both Transformers and My Sister's Keeper.

Yeah looks a bit low.

Wouldn't be surprised if Transformers made $150M 5 day. which wouldn't be bad at all.

Possible breakdown based on tracking.

Wednesday: 43m
Thursday: 23.7m (-45%)
Friday: 31.3m (+32%)
Saturday: 34.4m (+10%)
Sunday: 29.2m (-15%)

5-day OW - 161.6m
3-day OW - 94.9m

Surprisingly, it also ended up with 161m using the exact same drops I did previously only with a smaller Wed.

I get something similar, only I'd use a larger Wednesday and a way bigger Thursday drop.

Interesting. Maybe they spent all their advertisement money on Star Trek.

Really interesting read.

Nice find.

So he's worried about the marketing. Not a good sing.

I really hope the movie does well.

Transformers may be in more trouble than I even realized. I still seeing it doing 330 at least.

From Notfabio over at HSX

Fandango: Tranformers at 76% of Ticket Sales

Advance as of last night..
-- notfabio, Jun 22, 10:52
502 Midnight
365 Opening Day
30 for following days (this should bump up dramatically starting tomorrow as only 2 screens are on sale of 6)

When tracking is this high, it usually underestimates the film a bit. The only example of the opposite occuring that I remember without digging up my tracking stats was Pirates 3 (both were much higher than the actual, 170 and 175 I believe) and Spider-Man 3 (MTC nailed it, while RS was a bit low with 137 I believe). Doesn't mean transformers 2 will overperform (based on tracking), but many summer blockbuster have before.

compared to POTC2, SM3, POTC3 and TDK how is this doing?

It'll take some time (really need to start saving these pre-sales like I do tracking), but I can try to find them.

TDK did aroun 3200. So It needs to really start picking up very soon.

Awareness / General interest / First choice
Dark Knight: 97 / 68 / 44
POTC2 DMC: 95 / 85 / 60

We might be able to use the above if this tracking is relased for Transformers 2. As you can see, it's not alays accurate since DMC was stronger than TDK here, but it can still be used for comparisons. I'll see if I can find more.


DARK KNIGHT (THURSDAY, 7.17)
1701 Midnight/3AM (44 people)
464 Friday
45 Saturday
9 Sunday

I don't think the Dark Knight is the best example at a,, probably the worse of all the recent summer blockbusters, but there ya go.

Pirates 3 had 1398 btw.



HPOT5 (MONDAY, 7.9)
710 Tuesday
186 Wednesday
16 Friday

--HP5 had 2100 as it's final.

HP5 has the biggest WED ever, so keep that in mind.




SM3 (TUESDAY, 5.1)
Pre-open (includes under a dozen for 3amish and 6amish): 495
Friday: 244
Sat: 73
Sun: 13

SM3 (WED, 5.2)
Pre- 647
Friday: 329
Saturday: 84
Sunday: 16

SM3 accounted for 94% of Fandango Ticket Sales.

And if these numbers are released (havent been for a long time):
From notfabio:
MTC: 99% Sites: 2,300,315 (so "probably" SPID3 made between 10.5-11.5 million from midnights).

Transformers had 2,100,000 (est) for almost 9m, so 2m-2.5m would likely suggest midnights of around 10m for Transformers 2. And Pirates 3 had 4.7m, but opened at 8pm and made almost 14m.

Post updated (bottom of Page 2) with much more. Make sure to note the dates too if you compare.