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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12197
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 June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Make some 3 day and 5 day predictions for Transformers, and 3 day predictions for My Sister's Keeper.
Transformers 4000 +
My Sister's Keeper 2600 +
1 Transformers $49 m opening day, $29.4 m Thursday, $105 m 3day ($183.4 m 5day)
My Sister's Keeper $14.5 m
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 1:07 pm |
 
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 25433
Location: Classified
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Is it just me or is the Transformers buzz at an all time low? I think it's position as top grossing movie of the year is in question for the first time. Up, The Hangover, and Harry Potter are now on the same level. Really awful marketing. All they needed to do was stick with the big wheelie dude as the main money shot, but instead they get some motherfucker eating sand. Yeah that's appealing to all ages.  48 million opening day, 94 million 3 day, 164 million 5 day.
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 2:58 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 103 (175 5-day)
My Sister's Keeper - 13
I think people are forgetting that anything over $44.2m opening day would be the biggest Wednesday opening ever and anything over $172.8m five-day would be the second biggest five-day opening ever, only after The Dark Knight. I've already seen tons of sell-outs for it, so I'm not worried about buzz. I think it's just the forum that is lacking it.
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 3:18 pm |
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curtis20
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2008 2:16 pm
Posts: 492
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Flava'd wrote: Is it just me or is the Transformers buzz at an all time low? I think it's position as top grossing movie of the year is in question for the first time. Up, The Hangover, and Harry Potter are now on the same level. Really awful marketing. All they needed to do was stick with the big wheelie dude as the main money shot, but instead they get some motherfucker eating sand. Yeah that's appealing to all ages. 48 million opening day, 94 million 3 day, 164 million 5 day. It is just you. because trust me, People will be at Tranformers in 3 days.
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 3:26 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Early screen allocations are putting TF2 right where I expect it at 3-4 for 16+ plexes, which is what I need to see. I don't think we have any local sellouts yet, but it would be really weird if we did, not even TDK was selling out here 5 days ahead of time. I still think TF2 will be the top film of the year, but I'm not getting the "out of this world" 400m+ type buzz. It may very well end up right around Iron Man/TF1, with 320m, which will still almost definitely be enough to win the summer (year depends on Avatar)
_________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 4:55 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48678
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Transformers - 170 (5 days)
My Sister's Keeper - 14
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 5:17 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32635
Location: the last free city
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 125m (205m 5-day)
My Sister's Keeper - 10m
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 5:21 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
Location: Places
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) transformers 115 ow, 185 5 day 5 day
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 6:04 pm |
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torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
Posts: 16020
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) i'm going low. i see around $90m 3-day and $160m 5-day
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 9:28 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Transformers 2:
3Day- Shit Loads
5Day- Shit Ton of Loads
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 10:36 pm |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am
Posts: 3139
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Zingaling wrote: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 103 (175 5-day)
My Sister's Keeper - 13
I think people are forgetting that anything over $44.2m opening day would be the biggest Wednesday opening ever and anything over $172.8m five-day would be the second biggest five-day opening ever, only after The Dark Knight. I've already seen tons of sell-outs for it, so I'm not worried about buzz. I think it's just the forum that is lacking it. x2 I will never understand why this forum puts so much importance on "KJ hype"
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 10:44 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Speevy wrote: Zingaling wrote: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 103 (175 5-day)
My Sister's Keeper - 13
I think people are forgetting that anything over $44.2m opening day would be the biggest Wednesday opening ever and anything over $172.8m five-day would be the second biggest five-day opening ever, only after The Dark Knight. I've already seen tons of sell-outs for it, so I'm not worried about buzz. I think it's just the forum that is lacking it. x2 I will never understand why this forum puts so much importance on "KJ hype" BECAUSE WE ARE THE LAW!!! _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Jun 20, 2009 10:45 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) because its the most obvious and accessible hype for us. We're here every day, its easy to accidently forget that its just 30 internet geeks and not the general public.
If Watchmen didn't prove that KJ Hype means shit than nothing ever will.
_________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 12:54 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6787
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) TF2 - 94M(3-day) and 158(5 day) - I see minimal regular screen sellouts. its no where close to TDK for which pre-sales just got crazy at this point. Just check the thread for TDK sellouts. viewtopic.php?f=12&t=42390&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=sellout&start=225
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 1:01 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) What I honestly see for TF2 right now..
Wednesday: 55m
Thursday: 30.3m (-45%)
Friday: 40.0m (+32%)
Saturday: 44.0m (+10%)
Sunday: 37.4m (-15%)
5-day OW - 206.7m
3-day OW - 121.4m
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 1:02 am |
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MGKC
---------
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) I see very similar percentages to you, 2001. Just a lower start.
Wednesday: $47 million
Thursday: $23.5 million (-50%)
Friday: $34.075 million (+45%)
Saturday: $37.5 million (+10%)
Sunday: $30.0 million (-20%)
My Sister's Keeper's weekend will be as much as Transformers 2 makes between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM on Friday.
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 1:37 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Zingaling wrote: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 103 (175 5-day)
My Sister's Keeper - 13
I think people are forgetting that anything over $44.2m opening day would be the biggest Wednesday opening ever and anything over $172.8m five-day would be the second biggest five-day opening ever, only after The Dark Knight. I've already seen tons of sell-outs for it, so I'm not worried about buzz. I think it's just the forum that is lacking it.
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 7:47 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22214
Location: Places
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) theres NO WAY this film breaks 50 million on a wednesday, guys.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 9:34 am |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am
Posts: 7041
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) There was the Wall-E insane clubs as well which were all failures.
This year this forum had no hype for Up and its breaking 250m and could reach 300m.
Never judge anything by this forum, people are also posting less.
_________________
Calls
Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2
Lorax over Despicable Me
Men in Black 3 Under 100m
Madagascar 3 Under 100m
Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 9:40 am |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) I'm rubbish at predicting the big films.
So i'll say $90M 3 day, $145M 5 day.
My Sisters Keeper $13,000,000.
Year One -65%
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 2:31 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Still not sure, haven't started research to see how these films usually perform but I'll say that it won't miss a 110m+ OW or a 190m+ 5-day. Wednesday will be between 45-55m and Thursday will drop at least 45% from it.
_________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 3:33 pm |
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Mr. Reynolds
Confessing on a Dance Floor
Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:46 am
Posts: 5578
Location: Celebratin' in Chitown
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) TF2 155 5-day
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 5:19 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 25433
Location: Classified
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Michael Bay agrees with me. Check out this letter he wrote to Paramount last month. http://www.aolcdn.com/tmz_documents/061 ... tmz_wm.pdfCan't copy paste it since it's a stupid pdf file.
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 7:29 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) Some of these predictions are getting pretty out of control. It's completely expected of course, but I could see it "disappointing" in the same way Spider-Man 2 did over it's respective five day. After all, no film has ever done over 200 million Wed-Sun. It will undoubtedly be huge, but I don't think that hype is as pronounced as it was for Pirates 2 or The Dark Knight by a long shot. Call it 95 million three day, 165 million five day.
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 7:48 pm |
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TS2009
Newbie
Joined: Mon May 11, 2009 4:34 pm
Posts: 4
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Re: June 24 - 28 Predictions (3day and 5day) MovieDude wrote: Some of these predictions are getting pretty out of control. It's completely expected of course, but I could see it "disappointing" in the same way Spider-Man 2 did over it's respective five day. After all, no film has ever done over 200 million Wed-Sun. It will undoubtedly be huge, but I don't think that hype is as pronounced as it was for Pirates 2 or The Dark Knight by a long shot. Call it 95 million three day, 165 million five day. Well no movie made $60m in one day and TDK did that. No movie hit $40m on a Wednesday before SM2 did it. No movie got $100m OW before SM. See the pattern TF2 can get 200m Wed-Su
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| Sun Jun 21, 2009 10:04 pm |
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