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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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 Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/450m+ Club Now that this forum is in "summer" status and summer start is less than a month away, let me start another summer club.
10.0m midnights
50.0m Wednesday
Thursday: 34.8m (-42%)
Friday: 43.5m (+25%)
Saturday: 47.9m (+10%)
Sunday: 40.7m (-15%)
5-day OW - 226.9m
3-day OW - 132.1m
All Time Domestic BO
1. Titanic - 600.8m
2. The Dark Knight - 533.3m
3. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 475.0m
Top Films of the decade adjusted
1. The Dark Knight - 533.3m
2. Shrek 2 - 511.6m
3. Spider-Man - 500.3m
4. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 475.0m
5. Pirates of the Caribbean 2 - 465.3m
Gold Members:
2001
BJ
Munkpool
the ultimate biu
Rev
loyalfromlondon
McSteamy
Last edited by 2001 on Tue Jun 16, 2009 1:12 am, edited 11 times in total.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:35 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club hahaha
no
_________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:51 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club in, I expect 100m in two days.
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:55 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club BJ wrote: in, I expect 100m in two days. 
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:59 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Yeah that sounds about right.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:00 pm |
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the ultimate biu
Star Trek XI
Joined: Sun Jun 08, 2008 3:37 am
Posts: 322
Location: London
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club In
As crazy as it sounds
_________________ I demand a SACRAFICE
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:02 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club No...I really kinda doubt it'll beat Dead Man's Chest. Transformers' WoM doesn't even compare to the first Pirates' WoM.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:02 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12197
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club I'm getting a huge Shrek 2 feel from Transformers 2 box office wise, where it will act as a "comfort sequel" in a sense. Even if it sucks, everyone will go see it in droves due to the goodwill of the first film.
June being relatively light will help this immensely opening weekend. I see $425 m + very possible, but getting to $475 m + depends a lot on the quality of the film. The original pulled in $155,405,412 in its first 6 days, and being a sequel, $200 m + in 5 days isn't too much of a stretch.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:03 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Magnus wrote: I wouldn't be surprised by that 5-day...but I think it's going to be insanley frontloaded and don't see anything above 425m for it.
Right now, I'd say 195m 5-day and a 410m total. It only needs a 2.25 multiplier from that 5-day which is not that far from what HP5 did (2.09).
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:15 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12197
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Magnus wrote: O wrote: I'm getting a huge Shrek 2 feel from Transformers 2 box office wise, where it will act as a "comfort sequel" in a sense. Even if it sucks, everyone will go see it in droves due to the goodwill of the first film.
June being relatively light will help this immensely opening weekend. I see $425 m + very possible, but getting to $475 m + depends a lot on the quality of the film. The original pulled in $155,405,412 in its first 6 days, and being a sequel, $200 m + in 5 days isn't too much of a stretch. The thing is that I really don't feel Transformers audience expanded as much as Shrek did. Keep in mind this is a two year gap, not a three year gap like Shrek 2 and POTC2 was. And the original Shrek and POTC had MUCH better WOM. I mean, I still think its going to end up breaking 400m+, which would be a major increase over original, but I don't see a MASSIVE increase. We won't see a Dark Knight jump up for sure and I do see it lagging Shrek 2's jump up. The main thing against this club happening is that Transformers more or less made 50% of its total or so in its first 6 days. It was incredibly frontloaded for the first film in a franchise.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:15 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Magnus wrote: With frontloading these days, 2.25 5-day is quite far from a 2.1. What I meant is that this can manage a 2.25x if a second ever most frontloaded franchise film did a 2.1x.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:28 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club No. Wouldn't even call $400m a lock yet.
_________________
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:17 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32635
Location: the last free city
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club IN  65m 30m 40m 50m 30m 215m 5 straight days of 30m+
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:20 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6787
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club O wrote: Magnus wrote: O wrote: I'm getting a huge Shrek 2 feel from Transformers 2 box office wise, where it will act as a "comfort sequel" in a sense. Even if it sucks, everyone will go see it in droves due to the goodwill of the first film.
June being relatively light will help this immensely opening weekend. I see $425 m + very possible, but getting to $475 m + depends a lot on the quality of the film. The original pulled in $155,405,412 in its first 6 days, and being a sequel, $200 m + in 5 days isn't too much of a stretch. The thing is that I really don't feel Transformers audience expanded as much as Shrek did. Keep in mind this is a two year gap, not a three year gap like Shrek 2 and POTC2 was. And the original Shrek and POTC had MUCH better WOM. I mean, I still think its going to end up breaking 400m+, which would be a major increase over original, but I don't see a MASSIVE increase. We won't see a Dark Knight jump up for sure and I do see it lagging Shrek 2's jump up. The main thing against this club happening is that Transformers more or less made 50% of its total or so in its first 6 days. It was incredibly frontloaded for the first film in a franchise. Plus I doubt it will expand its fan base. I think 65% of TF OW were Men and under 25. So it is not making 475M with that kind of fan base. Plus 2 year gap is good enough to build huge anticipation and marketing so far have been mediocre. I would say 170M(5-day)/345M domestic.
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I used to be shawman.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:48 pm |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club I think the legs will be dire, not because of 'quality' but just because of sheer fan rush.
I think $400M is the top for this.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:57 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Rev wrote: IN 65m 30m 40m 50m 30m 215m 5 straight days of 30m+ wed: 65m thur: 35.5m -45% fri: 39m +10% sat: 43m +10% sun: 38.5m -10% 230m 5-Day mon: 20.90m -45% 252m 6-Day tue: 16.7m -20% wed: 11.55m -30% thur: 10.00m -12% fri: 20.00m +100% 300m 10-Day sat: 14.0m -30% (4th) 465m-480m top out. _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 3:06 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32635
Location: the last free city
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club BJ wrote: Rev wrote: IN 65m 30m 40m 50m 30m 215m 5 straight days of 30m+ wed: 65m thur: 35.5m -45% fri: 39m +10% sat: 43m +10% sun: 38.5m -10% 230m 5-Day mon: 20.90m -45% 252m 6-Day tue: 16.7m -20% wed: 11.55m -30% thur: 10.00m -12% fri: 20.00m +100% 300m 10-Day sat: 14.0m -30% (4th) 465m-480m top out. SHOW OFF! 
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 3:09 pm |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am
Posts: 3139
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Magnus wrote: And the original Shrek and POTC had MUCH better WOM. And what is that based on? YahooPOTC: A-(12 all time) Transformers: A-(13 all time) Shrek: B+
CinemascorePOTC: A Transformers: A Shrek: 96% favorable
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 4:46 pm |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am
Posts: 3139
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club IMDB isn't exactly as mainstream friendly as Yahoo and Cinemascore.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 5:03 pm |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am
Posts: 3139
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Or against it when we look at the anti-Michael Bay, anti-Transformers sentiment from the geeky fans (which the internet is made up of) of the show that populate IMDB.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 5:07 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club I'm with Magnus on this in that the 5-Day is more likely than the total.
At the moment, I'm going with 190/400, but can see a 200m 5-Day, low 400 finish.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
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“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 8:05 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 23386
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club The 5-day for this will be jawdropping. Absolutely jaw-dropping.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 8:29 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Speevy wrote: IMDB isn't exactly as mainstream friendly as Yahoo and Cinemascore. Considering the kind of films that are top rated at Yahoo, I don't think it's exactly a great barometer for reading WOM either.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 9:25 pm |
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Speevy
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 9:12 am
Posts: 3139
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Biggestgeekever wrote: Speevy wrote: IMDB isn't exactly as mainstream friendly as Yahoo and Cinemascore. Considering the kind of films that are top rated at Yahoo, I don't think it's exactly a great barometer for reading WOM either. Like?
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 9:29 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club Speevy wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Speevy wrote: IMDB isn't exactly as mainstream friendly as Yahoo and Cinemascore. Considering the kind of films that are top rated at Yahoo, I don't think it's exactly a great barometer for reading WOM either. Like? Anything with Tyler Perry, Coach Carter, Eagle Eye, Changeling, hell half the damn list is total WTF movies.
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| Sat Apr 04, 2009 9:35 pm |
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