It is possible it will be SLUMDOG, but I'm putting my money on TAKEN. Either way, it seems like it will be a close race.

Still not convinced Watchmen has what it takes to get above 65m. I hope it does, but it's not likely at all.

Pre-sales are great at iMax but regular theaters are not that great looking at places I looked for TDK. I think it will make 2-3M in midnights and around 60-65M OW. I dont see it having great legs looking at the reviews. I think it is going to be a love or hate kind of film.

Wow, Watchmen is gonna be huge.

I remember predicting $35m a couple of weeks ago, lol.

Anything for $60M would be amazing, it is R rated after all.

And if the reviews are anything to go by, very heavy on the source material, alienating some viewers. The reviews are mostly positive in the UK though.

Where are you, BJ?

You were the closest on 300.

he's been saying over 90m hasn't he?

My derby predictions.

1. Watchmen - 65.1m
2. Taken - 8.7m (-12%)
3. Slumdog Millionaire - 8.4m (-30%)
4. Madea Goes to Jail - 8.4m (-48%)
5. Jonas Brothers - 5.6m (-55%)
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop - 4.8m (-14%)
7. He's Just Not That Into You - 4.4m (-27%)
8. Coraline - 4.2m (-20%)
9. Confessions of a Shopoholic - 3.5m (-25%)
10. Street Fighter - 2.7m (-43%)

Top Ten Cume - 115.8m (+33.4% from last year).

I've seen all over the place predictions for Watchmen. I am taking the more conservative route with 65 million because of the running time of 3 hrs (including previews) which may put a little dent in it's per theater average. Although I don't expect a 300 pta because the buzz is not as strong as that film. But with great screen allocations, and decent reviews from Critics, I see a per theater average of $18,000 (in the Hannibal range).
Among holdovers, since this is similar to the 300 weekend (an R-rated film as the sole openers), expect the Friday to Friday declines to be scant, although the IM's will be a bit lower because the sneak in effect is most effective on opening Friday. Anywho, Taken should see a sub 10% drop on Friday, with the lower IM bring the decline to the low teens. Slumdog will drop more moderately now being the sole R-rated holdover in the top ten, and with Oscar season over. Madea will avoid a 50% drop due to sneak ins. Jonas Brothers will not drop as high as Hannah since Hannah was advertised as a one week only event and this was not. The Friday to Friday drop will be very harsh (high 60's maybe), but a bigger Saturday increase due to matinee crowds will stablize the drop to the mid 50's range. HJNTIY and Shopoholic will see a slightly smaller drop than last time with lack of direct competition again. Paul Blart will yet see another skimpy decline, thanks to being the type of movie that is very likely to see a sneak in effect (young boys). Coraline will stablize in the decline due to no longer compeating with the Jonas's opening weekend. Under normal circumstance, Street Fighter would have drop in the high 50's to low 60's, but being the film that is most likely benifit the most from sneak in business (since it's going for virtually the same audience, who can't get in), it may see a sub 40% drop.

soo....

going a safe 65m-80m in the derby. 90m is its max potential and if the film behaves anything like 300 it will easily reach get there.

For midnight business, Watchmen acted identical to 300 at my theater. We had 5 midnight shows, 4 sold out. Good times

sold out one more showing than 300 here.

cool!

indeed.

We always knew it'd play good with the geeks. Anything else would have been a desaster. Meanwhile "Watchmen" won't even reach the top spot in Germany

Final Derby Predictions

1. Watchmen - 61.9
2. Slumdog Millionaire - 9.4
3. Taken - 8.9
4. Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail - 7.4
5. Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience - 5.3
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop - 4.7
7. He's Just Not That Into You - 4.1
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic - 3.0
9. Coraline - 3.0
10. Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li - 2.1

Our Predictions

Safe prediction for Watchmen. Early business is great and above 300's level, but like Scotty we aren't completely persuaded about the general buzz.
Not much to say about the rest. Obviously used the 300 weekend for holdovers, and looking at the drops we didn't feel like going with sub-20% declines on Taken and Blart, despite their performance last weekend. Madea 3 will drop like Madea 2 (the help it will get from the PG13 rating will be extremely limited we think). Street Fighter is a tough one, we decided to take a small risk because its dailies are really terrible and Bartkowiak's last two films all experienced awful holds after their opening.

1. Watchmen - 68.0
2. Slumdog Millionaire - 8.6m
3. Taken - 7.9m
4. Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail - 7.6m
5. Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience - 4.9m
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop - 4.3m
7. He's Just Not That Into You - 3.6m
8. Coraline - 3.4m
9. Confessions of a Shopaholic - 2.7m
10. Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li - 2.0m

wow, that is some huge differences in the holdovers as mine, meaning a huge difference in the scores. I agree that Street Fighter is a tough one, but I feel that it will be the first choice among R-rated victim's, that's why I went high.

Our scores should be kinda similar actually, excluding Street Fighter there are only 5/10% differences

Well apparently the "Tyler Perry ratio," works backwards!

So I should have guessed $58.66 m.