With Kate Winslet out of the race, this category is far more mysterious and I'm not entirely convinced Penélope Cruz will win, despite my love for the film and her performance.

I believe the Academy Award will go to past winner Marisa Tomei for her performance as a single mom and stripper who forms a tentative bond with down-and-out wrestler Randy "The Ram" (Mickey Rourke).

Anyone else predicting Marisa FTW?

not unless she pulls a Marisa Tomei.

It is possible. I'd actually be predicting her...had she not won before unlike Cruz.

She also missed a SAG nom.

And The Wrestler made a very weak showing, although so did Vicky Cristina, but Tomei's the one that needs the upset, so I'd still say it's unlikely. But possible.

But no. I do think she'd take second place if all the votes were counted. But... already won, playing a stripper, no SAG, no past major critics wins.

stripper/hooker types are often nominated but rarely win

Nicole Kidman - Moulin Rouge
Elisabeth Shue - Leaving Las Vegas
Julia Roberts - Pretty Woman
Natalie Portman - Closer
Julianne Moore - Boogie Nights
Jon Voight - Midnight Cowboy

I doubt it, although I do think she's the only nominee with a somewhat legit shot at winning over Penelope Cruz.

I think she's a great actress and really fun person so I wouldn't mind seeing it happen. It might also allow the poor woman to finally live down some of the crap she has gotten since winning her first Oscar all those years ago.

I mean, honestly. For someone whose name is constantly brought up as an Oscar "WTF," the woman has one win and two additional nominations. Not bad.

Not to mention, she is wonderful in My Cousin Vinny.

I would prefer this scenario...so Penelope can win Best Actress for Almodovar's film next year.

Although, I'd probably prefer she win both...because she is the most beautiful woman in film.

Eh. I really liked her performance but I was a little underwhelmed for some reason.
I want Cruz to win.

Yes, yes!! I just watched Vicky Cristina Barcelona but I don't know that I'd give Cruz an Oscar for that role. Winning for an Almodóvar picture just seems perfect!

It's definitely possible. The Doubt actresses will split votes, Henson's name is not big enough and her role not strong enough to give her the win, and Cruz - while still my pick - has been losing a lot of steam recently. It'll probably be either her or Tomei, but then again, I thought Swinton was the least likely Supporting Actress candidate last year, so I could be way off.

If she wins this year (next) it'll be for Nine. She's all sexy and singy, it worked wonders for Zeta-Jones.

That would be a shame.

Penelope should win all the Oscars!

you didn't like her in Nine?

When she could be in the run for a performance in an Almodóvar movie? That would be a damn shame and just like the Academy.

yeah, Penelope is always fantastic lately, but when Penelope is working with Almodovar, she's bloody fantastic.

Not to mention she looks fantastic in it and Pedro has been on a roll lately.

I'm not so sure of this anymore, but it's still my prediction. We'll see... Best Supporting Actress is a cool category this year.

It'd be deserving, and she's probably just behind Cruz. I just don't see Davis or Henson winning.

She's by predict to win for tonight.

Morgenstein of the WSJ predicts Henson. Haha.

Fail.

Yes. And I'm glad. Cruz was better.