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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread snack wrote: So I think movies with "passionate supporters" might be getting a boost this year. There's nothing completely dominant...unlike last year with No Country. When you have a film that gets more than 1/5th of the #1 votes, they have to move down to those ballot's #2 and #3, no the passion types of films, thus opening the door for things Atonement, Clayton, etc, and hurting something like Into the Wild, because presumably a large # of its mentions were in first position, and thus did not benefit from spillover points.
This year, each movie is going to need most of the #1's it gets, and since they're wont be nearly as much overflow, everything that gets in will need passion. Thus, WALL-E's chances are good. Only Slumdog is locked, and by this reasoning, Button looks a little bit weaker to me. Probably Frost/Nixon too, but that'll have a ton of #1's from old white men [the Academy], so maybe not.
Anyways, #1 positions are more important this yea. Hell, Frost/Nixon actually has some #1 even at this site, something I never expected with Ron Hoaward and all, yanno? Looks like its appeal is pretty big. Also, Button..I dunno...it seems like a film that people either dislike or really really love..but then again, judging by critics lists, there are only few #1 spots. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:00 pm |
 
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Tyler
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:55 pm
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Location: Torrington, CT
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Well, it's not like Ben Button doesn't appeal to old white men either. It's practically a Forrest Gump for them. F/N is a safer political film than Milk (ghey), though, and that's what will probably be its ace in the hole.
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| Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:37 pm |
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billybobwashere
He didn't look busy?!
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 3:59 pm
Posts: 4308
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Mr. Joseph X wrote: billybobwashere wrote: talked to an Academy member I know yesterday. Old guy...
His thoughts on the major contenders:
-Slumdog was good.
-Benjamin Button was okay.
-TDK was weak but Ledger was great (and is gonna win the Oscar easily)
-Wall-E was great.
-Milk was his favorite of the year.
-Frost/Nixon was good.
-Revolutionary Road wasn't very good.
-Doubt was okay.
I'm really starting to think that Wall-E and TDK will split the 5th BP/BD slots, respectively.  So... the only really good movies were WALL-E and Milk. Everything else was good or okay. That's not great to go on.no, that's not what i meant. Those two were definitely his favorites (a hopeful sign for Wall-E!), but he was simply a tough critic. The fact that he approved of Slumdog when it showed up (he commented on these as I showed him that video I posted in the Real Life forum) meant that he was fine with its current frontrunner status. It just wasn't his favorite. He also thought Frost/Nixon was a worthy nom. Out of our Big Six, the two he didn't seem to like much were TDK and Ben Button. The big thing I got out of it was that this might be indicative of the older members of the Academy strongly preferring Wall-E to TDK. But I still haven't changed my prediction of TDK getting in over Wall-E. _________________ Retroviral VideosA film-based project created for the purpose of helping raise awareness about HIV/AIDS, specifically in South Africa.
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| Fri Jan 09, 2009 9:05 pm |
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roo
invading your spaces
Joined: Fri May 19, 2006 10:44 pm
Posts: 6194
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Be careful when you try to draw conclusions based on a sample of 1 person.
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| Fri Jan 09, 2009 10:13 pm |
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haerbinoyt
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2007 12:37 am
Posts: 99
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Does WALL-E really have more going for it than say Pan's Labyrinth or The Diving Bell & the Butterfly did? If anything the snubs of the last two in BP show to me that any film that already fits into another "Best Pic" category (Doc, Foreign, Animated) are pretty much guaranteed to get dicked out of a nom for the big one.
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:20 am |
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Groaning
Us v Them
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2006 3:17 pm
Posts: 2759
Location: Austria
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread haerbinoyt wrote: Does WALL-E really have more going for it than say Pan's Labyrinth or The Diving Bell & the Butterfly did? If anything the snubs of the last two in BP show to me that any film that already fits into another "Best Pic" category (Doc, Foreign, Animated) are pretty much guaranteed to get dicked out of a nom for the big one. Diving bell didn't fit into another "Best Film" category.
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:37 am |
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Johnny Dollar
The Lubitsch Touch
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:48 pm
Posts: 11019
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:11 pm |
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Tyler
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:55 pm
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Location: Torrington, CT
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread haerbinoyt wrote: Does WALL-E really have more going for it than say Pan's Labyrinth or The Diving Bell & the Butterfly did? If anything the snubs of the last two in BP show to me that any film that already fits into another "Best Pic" category (Doc, Foreign, Animated) are pretty much guaranteed to get dicked out of a nom for the big one. Diving Bell wasn't eligible for Foreign Film. And yes, it has a much higher profile and a bigger campaign, especially more than Diving Bell. I don't think Disney has anything else to push except Doubt, but that is hardly a case of campaigning Slumdog ahead of The Wrestler.
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 6:09 pm |
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Johnny Dollar
The Lubitsch Touch
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:48 pm
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Clint's acting in Gran Torino totally does not merit a nominaion.
That said, I kinda want him to get one anyway. As long as it isn't at The Jenk's expense.
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 6:51 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread yoshue wrote: Clint's acting in Gran Torino totally does not merit a nominaion.
That said, I kinda want him to get one anyway. As long as it isn't at The Jenk's expense. Over Pitt, it certainly does merit a nomination. It's a tough call if he's fighting it out with Jenkins. I really want Jenkins to get in. There are 6 amazing performances this year for that category. I hope Pitt doesn't block two instead of just one.
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 9:29 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
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Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Well, I think Eastwood is in.
The 6th spot is pretty much between Jenkins and Pitt.
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 9:36 pm |
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Tyler
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread What's #4 if Pitt isn't in?
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 10:12 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40604
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Langella
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 10:15 pm |
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Tyler
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Err, who am I missing?
Eastwood
Penn
Rourke
Langella
So who's getting in with Jenkins and Pitt out of the five? DiCaprio? Pretty unlikely.
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 10:46 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40604
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread No, I think Lecter just made a typo and meant to say the 5th slot is between Pitt and Jenkins
I give the edge to Jenkins
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:07 pm |
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Tyler
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread I need to sleep, I guess.
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| Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:20 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Shack wrote: No, I think Lecter just made a typo and meant to say the 5th slot is between Pitt and Jenkins
I give the edge to Jenkins Oh, indeed I did. The comment doesn't make any sense otherwise (6th spot, heh). I give the edge to Pitt because of Button's Best Picture status. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Jan 11, 2009 9:55 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Heh, the latest Gurus of Gold predictions are posted: http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/200 ... 90112.html. Has such uniformity of opinions achieved before in their brief history? _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Mon Jan 12, 2009 11:10 pm |
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Tyler
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Probably not, but any time when I hear that kind of unity I get nervous. 2006 was almost like that, wasn't it?
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| Mon Jan 12, 2009 11:18 pm |
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Johnny Dollar
The Lubitsch Touch
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:48 pm
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Mickey Rourke survived calling Sean Penn a homophobe, but can he survive THIS? bumBUMbum
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| Tue Jan 13, 2009 9:38 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Just saw the Wrestler... Rourke is great but I feel Langella actually deserves the award this year. (haven't seen Eastwood yet mind you)
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| Tue Jan 20, 2009 2:14 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread yoshue wrote: Mickey Rourke survived calling Sean Penn a homophobe, but can he survive THIS? bumBUMbum I'd be more worried if he can survive THIS.
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| Tue Jan 20, 2009 2:41 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Well, it has been updated: http://criticstop10.com/The BP nominees are placed at: #3 - Slumdog Millionaire #4 - Milk #6 - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button #11 - Frost/Nuxon #37 - The ReaderFUCKING #37!!!! It has got two #1 mentions. Iron Man, In Bruges and Vicky Cristina Barcelona fared better. The Dark Knight has BY FAR the most #1 mentions with 62. And it's awesome to see Let the Right One In climbing up the Top 10. Maybe with the next update (if there is one), it can crack the Top 6. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Thu Jan 22, 2009 9:07 pm |
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Tyler
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:55 pm
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Location: Torrington, CT
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread They fucked up badly, huh?
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| Thu Jan 22, 2009 9:08 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm
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Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread Now it looks like Slumdog will win the biggies while Benjamin Button will get the techs. Milk is the wild card there.
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| Fri Jan 23, 2009 1:21 am |
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