I'm just saying =P

Yeah. I won't be placing it in my predictions but I wouldn't be surprised at all.

If The Wrestler gets in, I'll be soooo happy. I think it will also mean Rourke is the frontrunner to win.

I think Penn would have been a lock to win...had he not won 5 years earlier. That gives him a major handicap, but he's still going strong.


And I am pegging Eastwood for the Best Actor win, despite the SAG snub. The movie doing so well, strengthens my belief in that.

These are my Oscar scenarios:


Scenario #1:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Art Direction
Best Cinematography
Best Sound Editing or Mixing
Best Make-Up
Best Visual Effects
Best Editing
Best Director
Best Picture


Slumdog Millionaire

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Dark Knight

Best Sound Editing or Mixing
Best Score
Best Supporting Actor


____________________________________________________________________________


Scenario #2:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button:


Best Make-Up
Best Art Direction
Best Visual Effects


Slumdog Millionaire

Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Director


The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actor
Best Cinematography
Best Sound Editing or Mixing
Best Score
Best Editing
Best Picture


_______________________________________________________________________________

Scenario #3:


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button


Best Visual Effects
Best Make-Up
Best Art Direction


Slumdog Millionaire

Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Director
Best Picture


The Dark Knight

Best Sound Editing or Mixing
Best Score
Best Cinematography
Best Supporting Actor




Against better judgement I'm leaning towards scenario #2 now. Benjamin Button will only win Best Picture if it is pretty much sweeping. It won't win BP without Best Director, methinks. It'll lose the acting awards, but the techs will almost all go to it.

You forgot about scenario #4.

Wall-E winning it all!

In a miracle, hypothetical WALL-E BP scenario, it'd look like this:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Art Direction
Best Make-Up
Best Visual Effects


Slumdog Millionaire

Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Director

The Dark Knight

Best Score
Best Supporting Actor


WALL-E

Best Animated Picture
Best Song
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Editing
Best Original Screenplay
Best Picture


Honestly, WALL-E would HAVE to win these first five awards in order to have a shot at Best Picture. It'd have to have this kind of support.

Yes!!!

That's the scenario!!!

You know, I could almost see WALL-E win 4-5 Oscars if it has a BP nomination.

Well, it's a lock for Best Animated and has a very legit chance at both Sound awards.

The only other two are Best Song and Best riginal Screenplay which will both be tough. I mean The Wrestler will probably be some competition for it for Song and the issue with Screenplay is...that if it wins Best Original Screenplay Milk might very well go home empty-handed and I can't see that happening.

I could see Milk go home empty-handed, actually. It just seems weaker than it was a month ago.

But for WALL-E: Animated/Sound/Sound Editing and a music award. I think Song would be great to finally award Newman if Score isn't in the cards. If it has a BP nom, I could see Screenplay.

talked to an Academy member I know yesterday. Old guy...

His thoughts on the major contenders:
-Slumdog was good.
-Benjamin Button was okay.
-TDK was weak but Ledger was great (and is gonna win the Oscar easily)
-Wall-E was great.
-Milk was his favorite of the year.
-Frost/Nixon was good.
-Revolutionary Road wasn't very good.
-Doubt was okay.

I'm really starting to think that Wall-E and TDK will split the 5th BP/BD slots, respectively.

YAY! a glimpse of hope for a Milk surprise

An old guy apathetic to Ben Button? Now that's a tad ironic...

Well, TDK is in pretty good shape to get the following nominations:

Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Score
Best Make-Up
Best Visual Effects
Best Editing
Best Supporting Actor
Best Director


That's 9 noms (and I even took Best Adapted Screenplay ou because I'm not sure on that one)....would it really get these nine and then still miss BP? I doubt that.

I think Fantastic Mr. Fox has a shot at upsetting them both.

I think there is a possibility that Benjamin Button sweep most awards during the night, and then all of a sudden Milk wins Best Picture.

It's right up there with the possiblity of a meteor crashing into the building right before Best Picture is announced, heh.

In this scenario, I'm counting on Frost/Nixon missing out on Best Picture nom so Milk is the only "political" choice. Benjamin Button barely losing to Milk by splitting the broad voting demographic with The Dark Knight/Wall-E (both nominated). And Slumdog having not shot at winning just like Crouching Tiger didn't for the same reasons.

But Slumdog is not foreign per sé and Danny Boyle's got some cred.

If Wall-E and TDK are both nominated... I may be pissed because that would mean neither have a shot at winning.

So... I thought about it long and hard. And even though I hate Penn and every movie he's in...

I think Milk is the front runner.

So I think movies with "passionate supporters" might be getting a boost this year. There's nothing completely dominant...unlike last year with No Country. When you have a film that gets more than 1/5th of the #1 votes, they have to move down to those ballot's #2 and #3, no the passion types of films, thus opening the door for things Atonement, Clayton, etc, and hurting something like Into the Wild, because presumably a large # of its mentions were in first position, and thus did not benefit from spillover points.

This year, each movie is going to need most of the #1's it gets, and since they're wont be nearly as much overflow, everything that gets in will need passion. Thus, WALL-E's chances are good. Only Slumdog is locked, and by this reasoning, Button looks a little bit weaker to me. Probably Frost/Nixon too, but that'll have a ton of #1's from old white men [the Academy], so maybe not.

Anyways, #1 positions are more important this yea.