Sideways Will Win Best Picture.

There I said it. [-(

It's on 341 top ten lists, 74 of which it's listed as #1. That's almost more than The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby combined. This information, though not updated as of today, still shows the clear critical dominance of Sideways, compared to its Best Picture rivals.

It has the most best pic wins with the Globes, SAG, and BFCA. Regrettably, it failed to secure the PGA. Damn you Marty.

It has the support of the largest voting block by far in the AMPAS.

Recent bridemaids, Scorsese and Eastwood, will cancel out each other's films. They will siphon votes from one another, allowing Sideways to break through relatively unchallenged.

The AMPAS will choose again to honor an often overlooked genre. First it was Chicago, a musical. Then Return of the King, a fantasy film. Sideways fits comfortably into the mold as a comedy. The last comedy to win Best Picture was 1977's Annie Hall. Another small film.

BAFTA and WGA are the only major awards that remain. We'll see if they fall into Sideways' favor.

Million Dollar Baby will have to settle on two acting wins while Aviator will win Best Director, possibly along with Best Supporting Actress and several tech awards. Of course, M$B because of it's DGA win could take Best Director over The Aviator.

This win would put Sideways alongside The Godfather, Midnight Cowboy, and Rocky, amoung others, as Best Picture winners with fewer than 4 wins overall.

This post is my opinion based in part on available information. \:D/

*yawn* This race seems so dull this year I would welcome an upset like this one.

Bold statement. I wouldn't mind if Sideways won Best Picture but I have a feeling The Aviator will snag it... (or hopefully Million Dollar Baby)

How many Oscar do you think Sideways will win? Two?

For it to win 5 is nearly impossible IMO.

4 is tough. 3 is possible. 2 I think are in its grasp.

Rocky, Godfather, and Midnight Cowboy all won BP and two other awards.

The Broadway Melody, Grand Hotel, and Mutiny on the Bounty all only won Best Picture.

I'm not sure what films only won 2, if any.

Very bold statement that I disagree with of course. But to see it positively, if it actually wins, you'll receive tons of praise, Loyal.

Then again, you said F 9/11 would win

Prsonally, I think Sideways will have to settle for Best Adapted Screenplay

There were two fatal flaws in my prediction for F 9/11.

One, it failed to secure any noms. And two, Moore should have never pulled it out of the doc race.

No guts, no glory. :wink:

I really do believe all this talk about The Aviator vs Million Dollar Baby is working in Sideways' favor.

Here's an article on Oscarwatch comparing Sideways to Chariots of Fire, another small film that managed to beat the odds.

With just a few weeks to go, The Aviator passed Ray to become, so far, the biggest box office champ of the five best pic contenders. Earning money at a decent rate, The Aviator has earned $75 million to Ray's $73. Million Dollar Baby is still at the bottom but will probably pass Finding Neverland next week. Sideways is the one to watch - currently in the lead where it comes to best pic wins - the Globe, the Critics Choice and now the SAG - missed the DGA, which is crucial, and the PGA, also crucial. But it could become the winner at the Oscars if the same dynamic happens that took place at the SAG - a sort of split vote scenario, with The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby pulling away significant votes but the Sideways camp being the largest and most enthusiastic of all.

This is somewhat reminiscent of the year Chariots of Fire won the Oscar - here's why. You had and epic -- Warren Beatty's Reds, which won the DGA and Best Director at the Globes - nominated for twelve Oscars, it won three, including Best Director. If there ever was a Best Picture winner that got screwed, it was Reds and Warren Beatty - why it didn't win is beyond me. Sucking votes away from Reds was On Golden Pond - the wonderful father/daughter drama, which took the Globe for drama, nominated for ten Oscars, won three. Finally, the best pic winner that year was only nominated for seven Oscars, won four. Isn't it rather shocking, yes after all these years, it's still shocking. Almost as shocking as Rocky beating out none other than All the President's Men, Network and Taxi Driver.

According to Box Office Mojo, Chariots of Fire made $58 million, domestic. Reds only made $40 mil, but On Golden Pond made over $100 million. Now does it or does it not make any sense that On Golden Pond didn't win best pic? Yet, there you have it. The only explanation is that it didn't win because another big huge movie, Reds, took its place. Leaving the one little dinky movie, Chariots of Fire to emerge. This is the potential Sideways, Million Dollar Baby, Aviator split scenario.

You know it's possible. But I think it is somehow like The Full Monty. That film received 5 Oscar noms as well as far as I remember (including Best Director and Best Picture) and it won the SAG award for Best Ensemble. The kind of the film that The Full Monty is reminds me of Sideways. But as you said, no guts, no glory.

Since Mavy followed my lead and created his own M$B thread, maybe I can convince you to create one for Ray. =D>

I'll create one for Closer.

Oh wait, it wasn't even nominated

Looking towards the WGA awards.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

BEFORE SUNSET
MEAN GIRLS
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

Currently, Sideways is far ahead the pack with 15 total nominations for Adapted Screenplay throughout the award season and a total of 4 wins, including GG and BFCA.

Past Adapted winners include:

The Hours
A Beautiful Mind
Traffic
Sling Blade
Forrest Gump
Schindler's List
The Silence of the Lambs
Dances With Wolves
Driving Miss Daisy

I sure hope it wins. Aviator and Million Dollar Baby are probably going to clean up every where else. All 3 though are very deserving of a Best picture so I wouldn't mind seeing any of them winning.

Weren't Shakespeare in Love and Driving Miss Daisy considered comedies? They both won Best Picture.

Driving Miss Daisy is debatable in some groups, and SIL was a period piece.

I have included them in a past discussion about Oscar, Comedy, and Sideways but for the best example of a straight, contemporary comedy, Annie Hall is the most recent. And SIL had a ton of tech nominations as well.

loyal...

American Beauty was an adapted screenplay? Based on what? And, Sling Blade? Wasn't that Billy Bob Thornton's own little southern tale...

American Beauty was Original, but Sling Blade was Adapted.

To elaborate on Sling Blade, I think Thornton wrote the play, then wrote the screenplay. Therefore, it's "from another medium."

Shakespeare in Love, Braveheart, and The Crying Game were all also Original Screenplays.

I copied the list from Oscarwatch. The two categories were listed together.

Thanks for the heads up.

The winner of the SAG ensemble award goes on to lose best picture about 50% of the time. Sideways also has only five Oscar noms with no tech noms. I can't see Sideways winning best picture with no AMPAS tech support and less support from the AMPAS acting branch then both The Aviator and MDB. Sideways earned two Oscar acting noms and none for its lead actor vs three acting noms for both The Aviator and MDB. With no support from the techs and having to split the actors with The Aviator and MDB I don't see how Sideways can win. I think it will end up with the usual indie consulation prize of the screenplay award and possibly a win in one of the acting categories.

Those are all great points, welcome to the boards by the way. :wink:

I still think MDB and The Aviator taking votes from one another, in addition to some support from the acting branch of the academy, not to mention all the previous wins and critical praise to sway other branches, it should be enough to squeeze in a BP win for Sideways.

It's going to be close but I feel Sideways can do it.

Virgina and Thomas at the Oscar luncheon.

Here are current box office standings as of this weekend, in addition to budgets.

The Aviator $75,895,720 Budget 110 Million
Ray $74,347,180 Budget 40 Million
Sideways $46,665,695 Budget 16 Million
Finding Neverland $39,410,213 25 Million
Million Dollar Baby $34,436,002 30 Million

http://www.comingsoon.net

Sideways is Biggest Fox Searchlight Release

Source: Fox Searchlight Pictures February 8, 2005

This weekend, Sideways shattered all previous records to become Fox Searchlight Pictures' No. 1 domestic grossing film of all time with box office to date of $46 million.

The film's gross topples the former record held by The Full Monty ($45.9 million), as well as Searchlight hits 28 Days Later ($45 million), Napoleon Dynamite ($44.5 million) and Bend It Like Beckham ($33 million). Sideways, made for only $16 million, is the only comedy to be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar®.

Said Steve Gilula, Fox Searchlight Pictures President of Distribution: "With at least four more weeks in theatres, we are overjoyed by the tremendous success of the picture and the overwhelming reaction to it by fans, critics and awards organizations alike."