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 Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread 
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Ben Button's now at a 69... at this point, a Slumdog loss would have to be something of an upset.

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Thu Dec 25, 2008 6:00 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Slumdog is a little bit of an oddity...that high of an MC score, but underperforming somewhat in the critics top 10 lists.


Thu Dec 25, 2008 6:01 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Well, it looks like business won't be the reason for a possible BB snub. But then, Dreamgirls and Walk the Line were also financially successful...


Fri Dec 26, 2008 1:45 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Jon wrote:
Well, it looks like business won't be the reason for a possible BB snub. But then, Dreamgirls and Walk the Line were also financially successful...


I want to see more what's going on with F/N and Milk...

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Fri Dec 26, 2008 1:49 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Jon wrote:
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
The problem with Slumdog is that its hype is peaking too early, much like with Juno. The films seem to match up.


Details? :er:


Perhaps more so in the films themselves and my feeling towards them.

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Fri Dec 26, 2008 12:43 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
snack wrote:
Slumdog is a little bit of an oddity...that high of an MC score, but underperforming somewhat in the critics top 10 lists.


Huh? It has won the most Best Pictures in critic's circles. How is that underperforming?

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Revolutionary Road is down to 68% at RT. Looks like the best reviews came in first.


Benjamin Button now has 6 100-scores at MC, I think. Shows that there is passion afterall. I think Button being in hurts TDK's or WALL-E's chances. I don't see three big blockbusters making it.

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Fri Dec 26, 2008 2:30 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I don't think it really matters to the Academy, the films are all way different in style and tone.

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Fri Dec 26, 2008 3:13 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
yes, but I think Ben Button needed to miss out to give Wall-E a chance to get in, and that obviously isn't happening now.

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Personally...I think Wall-E is more of a contender than the Dark Knight. The Academy seems to like Pixar a lot, and with them being the hot studio in town (still) now's their time to strike. Next Wall-E has been outperforming, just about every other film besides Slumdog obviously in the critics awards. Finally Wall-E is a very "important" film, so it has that advantage.

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Yeah, I would agree there. And like I've hammered before, nobody, including the old fogeys, are giving Frost/Nixon #1. Why wouldn't they go for Ben Button instead? Surely it'll be more widely viewed even by the Academy, it has support closer to A Beautiful Mind/Forrest Gump than say Big Fish or even The Green Mile, the campaign/momentum is much more there and it has a plot that's perfectly suited to making geriatrics cry. And Milk already covers the political arena, hell, it's even set in the same era.

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Revoultionary Road is now down to 71 on Metacritic with seventeen reviews, and still no 100s.

That's unfortunate.


Sat Dec 27, 2008 3:25 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I think Ben Button and Slumdog are now at something of a tie. Both have enough things going in their favor to win, but enough going against them for me to see the other film as being just as likely a possibility. But it's now certainly a race between the two. Unless the Academy feels really douche-y and decides to pull a Crash with Milk (although I'd complain a lot less about that one).

Possible Winners:
1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
1. Slumdog Millionaire

Nomination Locks (or near-locks):
3. Milk
4. The Dark Knight

Fighting for the #5 Spot:
5. Frost/Nixon
6. Wall-E

Hoping to Sneak In:
7. Revolutionary Road
8. Doubt
9. The Wrestler

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I will not be surprised to see RR sneak into BP. But it may be too controversial to sneak in.

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Tue Dec 30, 2008 12:50 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
billybobwashere wrote:
Unless the Academy feels really douche-y and decides to pull a Crash with Milk (although I'd complain a lot less about that one).


errrr....what?


Tue Dec 30, 2008 12:56 am
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
He means that a movie with an important theme would win.

Anyway...

I just realized that if Penelope Cruz wins, Javier Bardem (her VCB ex-hubbie) will present her the award. Nice :)

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
munkyfromlondon wrote:
I will not be surprised to see RR sneak into BP.

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I don't quite get the continuing faith in RR, especially now a full spectrum of its reviews has come in. No 100s at MC; low average at RT. Doubt has same MC score with 4 100s, better RT average, and better precursor showings so far. If any film outside the top 6 could sneak in, I'd put my money there.

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
xiayun wrote:
I don't quite get the continuing faith in RR, especially now a full spectrum of its reviews has come in. No 100s at MC; low average at RT. Doubt has same MC score with 4 100s, better RT average, and better precursor showings so far. If any film outside the top 6 could sneak in, I'd put my money there.


Leo + Kate + Controversy

Don't count it out.

Now, I'm not saying it will make it. I really really doubt it... But if it did, it will be deserved and not surprising.

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Tue Dec 30, 2008 3:40 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
xiayun wrote:
I don't quite get the continuing faith in RR, especially now a full spectrum of its reviews has come in. No 100s at MC; low average at RT. Doubt has same MC score with 4 100s, better RT average, and better precursor showings so far. If any film outside the top 6 could sneak in, I'd put my money there.


Yeah, I have been an avid "supporter" of Revolutionary Road and kept saying it'd appear later because of the early great start at RT.

But combining the RT and MC scores with poor showing so far, NOPE. Not getting in.

In all honesty, I think Doubt's chances are not that bad afterall. Think about it: it is getting tremendous support from the acting branch (5 SAG noms...what was the last film to manage that?! Chicago?), 5 Golden Globes noms and it has at least four Oscar noms guaranteed at this point, IMO. With a screenplay nom assured and with the Best Actress being close to a frontrunner...a strong case can be made for it.


Right now, I am really going with this ranking:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Frost/Nixon
5. The Dark Knight
6. WALL-E
7. Doubt
8. The Wrestler

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I can see where the Oscar ambition for Benjamin Button is coming from. The film is made for the award season. But I seriously doubt its chance at winning any big categories (obviously not Best Picture or Best Director) given it was a good concept poorly executed. It might get a few wins in best art direction, sound/sound editing, and makeup.


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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
I'll hurt somebody if it gets Sound or Sound Editing.

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Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:14 pm
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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
So are we down to six now without anything else threatening to get in?

The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
WALL-E
Benjamin Button
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire


Is there anything else at all that has a chance to be nominated for Best Picture? I don't really think so. If anything, it'll be Doubt which seems to be doing well at the box-office, will have 3-4 acting noms and has overall somewhat picked up in the reviews-department. But frankly, it seems like we're down to these 6 with at least three of them being locks (Benjamin Button, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire)

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
Keep RR in your pocket. :)

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Post Re: Well...the 2008 Contenders Discussion Thread
munkyfromlondon wrote:
Keep RR in your pocket. :)


I wouldn't be shocked if RR or The Wrestler snuck in, but... yeah, Lecter's six are The Six right now.

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