How do you think the November and December holiday season would have played out if Harry Potter 6 were still released in November 2008?

I think we would have topped $10 billion. Harry Potter would have pushed November even higher. While Twilight, originally opening on December 12th, would have pushed early December upward as well.

How do you think the holiday season would have played out, if Harry Potter had stayed in November?

Cannibalized.

I still think they could have moved Madagascar up a week, though.

It would have been ridiculous and we would have easily beat 07

More people would have seen the previews of the x-mas movies...

Yeah, the release dates would have moved a bit and the gross would have been higher. More people seeing previews wouldn't have hurt either.

Early December would've been stronger with Twilight, but QOS and Mad2 would've done worse, and HP6 wouldn't have been as strong as I think it'll be in July, where it'll have much less competition.

Potter would have made like 300 so it would have pushed that higher, of course Mad, Quantum, and Twilight would have lower grosses.

Could Bond have actually grossed even less? Is OW would have been the same and I dount Potter would have hurt its legs which were already pretty bad. If anything it may have stalled just below $160m. Twighlight would have been hurt more but still cleared $150m. Mad2 I suspect would have finished around $170m.

So Potter would have added an additional $200-$240m to the box office.

Mad 2 would have been worse because family film competition tends to make a big difference. But Bond was not that affected By HP before.

I don't think HP will be affected much by competition. It's the frontloaded fanbase; they tend to show up when they will regardless of release date.

You could argue Twilight would be higher in Dec with more holiday help. It also has a fanbase that wouldn't be affected that much by competition.

Well I do wonder if the female Potter fans would have showed up for it as much later. There is a sizeable amount of them that love Radcliffe mainly. I think twilight would have done less personally maybe had stalled out at 150. I do agree that Potter makes the same amount anywhere regardless. I think it would have made 280-310 in the summer or winter.

I dont know, I think only in July can Potter perform like it would in Nov/Dec. May, June, August, no.

Had things originally gone as planned, I think Twilight still would have opened as high as it did. Having Harry Potter out three weeks earlier didn't really impact the first Narnia movie, so I don't think it would have impacted Twilight either, especially with the absolutely insane excitement that surrounded the movie as its release date arrived.

Its performance after opening weekend would have been different, but it probably still would have managed about the same multiplier in the end.

I think the weekend before memorial day would be a great one for it. It worked for the Star Wars films.

I think they love the stories and movies more than Radcliffe. I mean Orlando Bloom had far more buzz for LOTR and POTC, yet look at how much that helped Kingdom of Heaven...

I mean 35m opening day indicates that the fans want to see it enough that they don't care much when it's released. I think it's one of the 3 or so movies this year that would be least affected by release date.

I'm sure that the holidays would have had an impact on the gross. It would have had a huge 2nd weekend drop though. It's possible the multiplier would have been the same in a different way (no thanksgiving), but then the opening might have been a bit lower with people being busy right before release. It's impossible to say for certain unless we were to have a Twilight movie released in December.

Bond is one example I can think of to indicate that it would lower the opening. In 1997, the holidays seemed to keep the opening near 1995 as opposed to 1999 even though the overall trend continued upward.

But then this isn't Bond so you can't know exactly how the fans would have responded.

Shrek 2 and many others as well. heh

But then you have had so many huge movies released then, so it is bound to be that many will do well on the date. I mean AOTC and Shrek 2 did below a majority of expectations. Many thought Indy would to better this year. Then of course there was Godzilla.

Same thing with other times of the year.

So I would say the movies make the date more than the date makes the movies.

3 in a row!

4 out of 5!

At least they are raising issues in this thread about BO, although I think we have determined these all before, so I think we should list those somewhere or something like that.