I expect TDK to reign supreme.

It'll be interesting to see if it can pull a win, or if they'll worry about blatant hometown pride.

But yeah, I wonder if it could score a double nom in Supporting (Oldman? Please?).

I always look forward to Chicago and San Diego's picks, not sure why.

Yeah, I noted that the other day. The movie has been totally written off as a contender but if more reviews come in like this, it could be not completely out of the race.

week of insanity

Sunday - AFI honorees; Satellites; Boston Critics; NY Online Critics
Monday - San Francisco, San Diego, Southeastern Critics; St. Louis Critics winners, Chicago Critics
Tuesday - Phoenix Critics
Wednesday - Toronto Critics
Thursday - SAG noms; Austin, Las Vegas Critics; Chicago Critics winners; London Critics noms
Friday - Utah Critics
Saturday - Houston Critics

Who are you predicting for the SAG noms?

for their version of BP (Best Ensemble)

The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk

for sure

the 5th spot I'm iffy on.

Rachel Getting Married? Revo Road? Curious Case? If Slumdog shows up, we're all screwed (those that think its a good but not great film).

interesting tidbit thanks to AD

Films appearing on NBR, GG, and BFCA

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon

^BFCA doesn't count. It's all British.
And looking at the schedule, are those all winners? (Either than the ones which say noms of course)

Broadcast Film Critic Awards.

Okay, as for the reviews:

The Wrestler

http://64.14.20.205/m/the_wrestler/


100% and 8.2/10 with 29 reviews in. I think it is getting close to becoming the most acclaimed live-action movie of the year, though it is definitely a bit small-ish for the Oscars, I think it is really really trying to get into the Top 5 at the moment. I'd say that Aronofsky, Rourke and Tomei have got their nominations assured now.


The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

http://64.14.20.205/m/curious_case_of_benjamin_button/

90% and reviews are good...but realy not as overwhelming and passionate as I hoped for. It is in now, I think, but I don't expect a win.


The Reader

http://64.14.20.205/m/10009498-reader/


61% and 6.1/10. The COTC is actually 50%. I always knew the Globes would be biased towards The Reader BIG TIME (very much an European/international topic and they love Winslet), but it is not making it in the race. I mean getting Best Picture AND Best Director noms at the Globes is kinda big, but I expect iot to be left out elsewhere.



Frost/Nixon

http://64.14.20.205/m/frostnixon/


91% and 95% COTC. Add to that Howard's name, and Best Actor/Screenplay noms and the fact that it will do decent box-office...it is in.



Gran Torino

http://64.14.20.205/m/gran_torino/

Back to Fresh with 70% and 6.6/10. Obviously not a BP contender, but Eastwood is still in and might actually win it.


Doubt

http://64.14.20.205/m/10009492-doubt/

With 27 reviews in, it stands at 63%. It is an acting powerhouse and apparently a contender for Screenplay....but not really going anywhere for BP, I think.

Match Point did it, as did

The Constant Gardener
Sunshine
The Hurricane
The End of the Affair
About Schmidt
The Talented Mr. Ripley
The Horse Whisperer
The Boxer
Amistad
....

But didn't most of them have better reviews at least?


Also out of those above, it still escapes me how Amistad missed a Best Picture nom. It had A LOT going for it.

And with the Globes, LAFCA, NBR, BFCA and NYFCC out, this is how it looks to me for BP:


Milk, Slumdog Millionaire and Frost/Nixon are in. No doubt about that, in my opinion. The first two are showered with praise, enjoying solid box-office, getting awards and noms left and right...they won't miss. Frsot/Nixon has too high of a pedigree and too "historical" of a topic to be ignored, especially since it is Howard's best-reviewed film to date. That's my current Top 3. Not in the likelihood to win, but to be nominated (I don't see Frost/Nixon winning at all).


The last two spots...they'll go to one of the following four: The Wrestler, WALL-E, The Dark Knight and Benjamin Button (Revolutionary Road...I kinda don't buy it anymore). The question is which will make it? I think we are in a similar position as last year when it all came down to seven possibilities: Into the Wild, Atonement, NCFOM, There Will Be Blood, Juno, Michael Clayton and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. This year we have seven strong options again.


The Wrestler might just end up like Uinited 93...strong reviews, acclaim....but JUST missing a BP nom. It will get Best Director.

So, it will likely be TDK vs. Button vs. WALL-E and currently I am inclined to stick with TDK and Button.


In order of likeligood:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk
3. Frost/Nixon
4. The Dark Knight
5. Benjamin Button
6. WALL-E
7. The Wrestler


8. Revolutionary Road.


RR needs to win a couple of Best Picture awards from critics groups to get back into the race.

I just think its more likely over the next week for WALL-E to be mentioned more often than Frost/Nixon by critics. Maybe I'm biased, maybe I'm crazy, maybe, just maybe, I'm in love.

Wall-E needs some SAG/DGA love!

SAG?

I don't understand why Revolutionary Road is "out of it."

It's a big-budget literary adaption. It isn't niche enough to dominate critic circles and its performance in CCs should be measured against Atonement and The Hours, not the other '08 films. What did The Hours win besides NBR, GG, and BAFTA? Jack shit. It was all for the actors.

And like Atonement and The Hours, media is busy printing features celebrating the novel. That's the kind of marketing the film needs. Chicago Tribune, IHT, The New Yorker, The Atlantic, Chicago Sun-Times have all published recent features.

RR appeals to an older demographic. When was the last time you walked into a public library? There are some people that will never be convinced WALL-E, TDK, and BB are "oscar-worthy." It's a stretch for all three to be nominated anyway.

TDK, WALL-E, BB, Slumdog, and Milk is an orgasm for movie forum types. It could easily be the WoKJ MPA lineup. And that's why it ain't happenin'.

Frost Nixon gets in before Revo Road gets in.

The Globes are starfuckers, there voted for the film imagining the press... "Titanic Redux."

I don't think what happened today changes much for Revo. If it gets mad love at the guilds, then we can talk.

I know everyone here feels confident that Milk will get best picture. But I am starting to lose that confidence. Both critics and audiences think Sean Penn is great in it, but few think the movie is really the best picture of the year (I of course disagree). Do you all really think Milk is a lock for a best picture nomination at this point?

Did The Hours or Atonement get mad love at the guilds?

Look, I wouldn't put my $ on a RR nom either. But it isn't the weakest link. Now, if RT turns out below 80% and it's shut-out at SAG and BAFTA...

But we're forgetting Atonement last year, and we're also banking on TDK, which the Academy may instead recognize in Director. A 4/5 split, with Mendes being the one removed

Milk is likely to show up on many of the next week's critics awards, San Fran, San Diego, Chicago. And then there's SAG and AFI.

What Milk has going for it that Slumdog does not is acting noms. I'm surprised Brolin or Franco didn't get in. But 2/5 Supporting Nominations were for comedies.

Atonement also had 7 nominations, a number Revo Road has absolutely no shot in getting.

Even worse, The Hours had 9 NOMINATIONS.

You're using bad examples.

Yeah.

Especially if Brolin stays hot.

This is Capote, but more accessible. It won't win, but the Oscar lineup is out of place without it.

Weren't you saying Atonement would get snubbed last year? Just like you said Dreamgirls was a lock...and are now saying TDK will win or WALL-E will get nominated or some nonsense like that (I don't really follow it anymore).

You're out of touch if you think RR can't muster 7 nominations, between:
Best Director - Sam Mendes
Best Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress - Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor - Michael Shannon (mental patient portrayal...duh)
Best Adapted Screenplay - Justin Haythe
Best Cinematography - Roger Deakins
Best Original Score - Thomas Newman
Best Costume Design - Albert Wolsky
Best Editing and Best Art Direction

I don't want to be the RR fanboy (After reading the novel, I made that thread last September, accusing Mendes of lazily remaking American Beauty), but RR has a lineup made for the Oscars. We can already count on it getting four nominations -- Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography, and Score (or Art Direction).