Updates:

The Reader stands at 67% and 6.3/10 after 6 reviews. Everything can change of course, but after everything that went behind the scenes...I don't think this will figure a lot.

Revolutionary Road ist still at 100% and 7.7/10 after seven reviews in. I think it is becoming more and more of a 5th-spot candidate.

The Wrestler is at 100% and 8.2/10 after 22 reviews. So far, it's looking better for it than even for Slumdog Millionaire and Milk reviews-wise. My #6 at the moment, I suppose...could go up.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button got one new positve review and now stands at 89% and 6.9/10. Until further reviews, I have it at my #4, but barely so.

Frost/Nixon has 84% (7.2/10) and COTC of 89% (7.3/10). Not completely out yet, but going down more and more.

Doubt is really giving off a Closer-vibe here. 67% with 9 reviews, but a relatively solid score of 6.9/10. It spöits the critics. It is now my #9 or so.

If, hypothetically, all four principal actors were nominated for Doubt and it didn't get a Best Picture nomination, that would be the only time in history that's occurred, right?

Yes, I guess so.

But Adams really isn't getting much buzz, so...


Adaptation is a good example. Three acting noms and a screenplay nom. This might mirror it completely.

Either that or Notes on a Scandal (if PSH misses a nom).

Yup, a first. But it probably won't happen.

This really feels like a weak year now.

It always has.
Anyways....Best Actress is suddenly the only worthwhile category.

3 of the 4 acting categories actually look very interesting, and the director lineup could really be fantastic. The competition for screenplay is fierce as well, and the techs don't look too bad either. It's just the ultimate one that feels dull, unless The Wrestler makes in.

I wish 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days could have been eligible this year; then it could definitely pull of something similar to City of God.

Frost can survive reviews like that, it fits right in with Howard's history... A Beautiful Mind had 72 at MC, Appolo 13 77, Cinderella Man 69. AMPAs like Howard lot more than the critics. Not everything the academy goes for is a critical darling... Babel, Crash, etc.

Join me in my Wall-E "Hunt for a nomination"!!!

Frost/Nixon has seen its MC score jumped to 79 with 11 reviews after receiving good words from a few heavyweights.

Alright I'm gonna go ahead and predict Happy-go-Lucky getting ZILCH. I'm usually wrong about these Best Actress, especially when it's in opposition to what Rod predicts =P, but I don't care. My gut says Sally Hawkins is going to fade from distance as we get to the critics awards and will miss out on a nom just about assuring Melissa Leo a nom.

It's not getting snubbed for Screenplay.

Word from MovieGeek is that Button is NOT as good as Wall-E... and he didn't even think Wall-E was awesome.

oh no... an opinion!

*bites nails*

A great opinion.

Button was a great movie. I will obviously get nominated for best picture and it has every right to. Wall E is very different than it. It wont get nominated

YOU DIE!

Frost/Nixon currently has 2 100s at MC with an overall score of 80. Its RT score is also stable at 88% and 7.4 average. It's fully in the Michael Clayton territory, so I could definitely see a nom now. My ranking, in term of nomination likelihood:

1. Milk
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. The Dark Knight
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. The Revolutionary Road
6. Frost/Nixon
7. The Wrestler

8-10. Not important

Feel it's down to a 7-film race, or more exactly, 5 films competing for 3 spots.

1. Milk
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. The Dark Knight
4. The Wrestler
5. Revolutionary Road
6. WALL-E
7. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
8. Frost/Nixon

http://64.14.20.205/m/the_wrestler/

100% with 24 reviews in.

http://64.14.20.205/m/revolutionary_road/

100% with 9 reviews

http://64.14.20.205/m/10009492-doubt/

Down to 64% and 6.3/10


It's out...

I'm even doubting Meryl and Hoffman now... 3 acting nominations for a mediocore-ly reviewed movie doesn't seem right...

Streep is getting nominated. No doubt (heh) about that. She's in.

Hoffman is trickier, yeah.

1. Milk
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. The Dark Knight
4. The Wrestler
5. Frost/Nixon
6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
7. Revolutionary Road

Button's a tough one. I think it can either win or fall right out of the race. I'm predicting it to pull an Atonement. Where it falls but sticks around from tech domination and just being a huge baity player, then pulls off a nom as the weak #5 BP without BD nom to be replaced by Aronfosky or Demme. I think Slumdog and Milk are in and the others are all pretty equal. My prediction right now would be

Slumdog
Milk
TDK
Frost/Nixon
Benjamin Button

The initial BFCA scores for the remaining batch of contenders:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 89
The Reader - 88
The Wrestler - 83
Revolutionary Road - 78

Doubt has increased from the initial 76 to the current 85, so RR could/should certainly rise. I'd imagine The Wrestler would too.