Okay, I think we can warrant another club for this considering the other one is kinda empty, heh.

Anyway, reading that thread I realized that there's a lot of underpredicting going on for Star Trek. While a $100 million opening weekend is insane, I think a $125+ million total gross is manageable for it.

In fact, I never believed in this project, not after Star Trek: Nemesis' debacle which didn't even break $50 million. However, the new trailer convinced me otherwise. I think the sour taste that the recent Star Trek movies left is gone (next year will be 7 years after Nemesis).

- I think the marketing has been done very well so far. The teaser trailer with Cloverfield announcing the project more or less. And now the first big teaser with Quantum of Solace, meaning that it will get A LOT of exposure. Hell the marketing for it started earlier than for most blockbusters of the next summer.

- Paramount invested $150 million into this movie. I'm sure they'll invest a lot into its marketing as well over the next year. With its big budget it will definitely offer a lot of eye candy.

- I think it will be THE movie for hardcore sci-fi fans next year (well until Avatar comes out at the end of the year).

- JJ Abrams managed to deliver a well-received movie with M:I-3, so there's hope Star Trek will be good too and will spark some solid WoM


So, yeah, I see this going the route of recent successful revivals. It should open to $45-50 million and have somewhat frontloaded legs (though set off a bit by the WoM) - bringing its total to $125+ million.


Who's in?

what is coming on star trek's 2nd weekend?

def in...this is too low. my upset of 09 will be this bitches 2nd weekend > a&d opening

st wont drop 50. might not even drop 40.

More than the new trailer the positive buzz the 25 or something min of footage shown around received has made me even more convinced that this will be the true ressurection of Star Trek. I can see 150+m.

Less than 80 million for sure.

Hmmm, we'll find out in May which club is more realistic...

Either way mine because the closer your club gets, mine will be even closer and more realistic then. Per default.

True...

But if my club wins I will be the sole prophet while your club is just the voice of reason...

At this point, in, but barely. I think it's going to be close.

In, I expect 250m+

No. 100 would be a success the way Nemesis hurt this franchise.

Wouldn't it be fun if Mark didn't join this club?

Hmm so apparently Bruno and A&D comes out weekend after star trek. I have a gut feeling that A&D will dissapoint heavily both domestically and overseas. Aka NARNIA 2 style.

Bruno is hard to predict since there is no trailer for it but it could do as well as What happens in Vegas.

Star Trek trailer looks way too cool for it to bomb so ya this will crack 125 million.


I am IN.

Bruno will open to over $40m maybe even $50m. Legs wont be good but OW will be great. People will flock to any Borat follow up.

Trek could do anything from $80 to $130m.

Of course I'm in even though I expect $100m/$250m...

You are LOCO

Do you, really? Or is this just a way to demonstrate your endorsement for the project? Just curious...

Granted, you have quite a valid argument in pointing out how big Trek actually was in its heyday, managing opening weekend records and claiming positions in the top 10 yearly lists. Didn't know all of that actually, never really looked it up. On the other hand, however, it's obvious Trek is not what it once was and to overcome that apathy and nerd image is gonna take time and one great movie, imho. So, if all goes well we could see those numbers with the sequel but not with Trek 11, i think. It could play out similar to Nolan's reinterpretation of Batman, on a smaller scale of course.

Well, one thing's for sure, though, i damn sure hope you'll be proven right. Another thing i can say with a certain amount of confidence is that it's gonna be a hit in Germany.

Yep, there are only three markets where STAR TREK worked in the past: U.S., UK and Germany...

Yes, I truely, really believe in $100m/$250m...

I have talked to some people who have seen the presentation in Cologne and each and every one of them upped their (German) forecast - they're even higher than my forecast!

Too bad I was too lazy to go to Cologne myself...

I've read the reports and they got me pumped!

However, a great movie doesn't make a great opening. The demand and anticipation among the general audience just doesn't seem to be there for it to open with $100m and i believe not even the best marketing efforts from Paramount will be able to change that till May 09.

Yeah, the presentation in Cologne was quite effective. Too bad it won't help hype the movie to the average moviegoer

To me the arguments about this movie feel oddly similar to those that fueled the bad Transformers projections at about this time in Transformer's lifespan.

150m should be easy for this if it's considered a good movie (60-75% on RT or equiv. public perception). I think 200m is possible.

I'm completely unconvinced that the shifting of a release date from 5/2 (that of Iron Man last year) to 5/8 (that of Star Trek in 2009) is the be-all-end-all of the release schedule as it relates to May releases (other than of course Memorial Day). The films you mentioned are hardly anything to compare to Star Trek (Posiedon with bad buzz to begin with and Speed Racer's obvious problems that we knew going into it), aside from maybe Troy (which still made $130m despite it being considered rather crappy) but speaks to a completely different base than the action/sci-fi crowd in an unproven genre.

The only thing that a 5/8 release date states is that, in previous years, people wouldn't launch on this date because a huge tentpole of a film was being released on 5/1 (or whatever the previous week is). Are we prepared to say the Wolverine movie has a better pedigree going into this year simply on the basis that it is released on May Day? Or is the producers of Star Trek just saying this year that Wolverine and A&D is no threat to them?

Personally, I feel that Star Trek is in the power role here. Not that those other two films won't make money but so far Wolverine is a huge unknown while anticipation for Star Trek is really starting to build. Right now they have the mindshare.

If the film is considered good, I'm not saying this film will do 300m, and it could easily do 150m (less than that seems rather unlikely to me) but I really have yet to run across a great argument which concludes that 200m can't happen. And yes, throw Nemesis at me and I'll show you Batman Begins, and yes, throw Mission:Impossible III at me and I'll tell you to go see Cloverfield (which did insanely well for what it was).

I'm just saying.

M:I:III has nothing to do with Cloverfield in the eye of the general public, which is all that matters here.

So Batman Begins is your only comparison.

That's the point I was making. I was just putting what I thought were lame arguments up front. I was just saying that if Abrams did have name recognition, and if it was tied to Cloverfield and Mission:Impossible III that it would be tough to quantify.

Transformers was new, Trek 11 comes with baggage. I joined the Transformers $300m club, i think.


Possible, yes, likely, i fear not.


Batman is a lot bigger a franchise, though. B&R made $107m in 1997, Nemesis $43m in 2002. Begins barely passed $200m with superb WOM.

Again, i hope i'm wrong.