No analysis, no explaination. I just tried to scour BOMOJO for our early 2004 predictions and it was SO hard to find. It's February 5th, the SAG awards just happened, and the Academy Awards will be at the end of the month.

LIST THE 5 BEST PICTURE CANIDATES. NOW! ALPHABETICALLY Just list 5 pictures. So we can look back on this throughout the year and laugh at ourselves.

It would be mighty impressive to see a person with three of the eventual nominees in their top 10 guesses.

(You can list 5 alternates)

Art School Confidential d. Terry Zwigoff. (United Artists/Miramax)
The Constant Gardener d. Fernando Meirelles. (Focus)
Jarhead d. Sam Mendes. (Universal)
The New World d. Terrence Mallick. (New Line Cinema)
Walk the Line d. James Mangold. (20th Century Fox)

(alternates)

Cinderella Man. d. Ron Howard (Universal/Miramax)
Elizabethtown d. Cameron Crowe (Paramount)
Kingdom of Heaven d. Ridley Scott. (20th Century Fox)
Memoirs of a Geisha d. Rob Marhsall. (Sony/Dreamworks)
Paint d. Robert Altman. (Sony Pictures Classic)

If Geisha comes out next year it'll sweep.

Goooooooonggggggg Liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii :wink:

Okay, so what are the other four predictions!

NO GUTS NO GLORY!

Rod is traditionally the best prognosticator, I wonder what he says...

Ok.
Memoirs of a Geisha
Valiant
Art School Confidential
Class Action




Alt.
Diary of a Mad Black Woman
In My Country
Walk the Line (if its what I think its about)

That's what I have for now because when I checked release datesd there are so many unconfirmed movies and so many I still know nothing about.

I predict All the King's Men to get a bunch of nominations with a chance at being front runner.

Written and directed by Schindler screenwriter Zallian, starring Academy darlings Sean Penn, Jude Law, Kate Winslet, Patricia Clarkson, Anthony Hopkins. And based on a critically acclaimed novel. It has all the ingredients if they don't screw it up.

I agree with many of the above mentioned movies as being contenders too, especially Cinderella Man and Geisha -- although to me the CM trailer looked weak.

Jarrhead is a real possibility due partly to relevance, but Malick's The New World will be undercut by the casting of not very good actors in the lead, plus Malick tends to go off into his own little world that only some fans of these types of movies like.

All The King's Men would sound like a sure thing if it wasn't a remake. The Manchurian Candidate missed out on some nominations that could have been solid, like Meryl Streep and even Liev Shrieber.

My predictions- top 5:

1. The New World (New Line) dir. - Terence Malick
2. Untitled Niki Caro Project (IMDb listing - was Class Action) (WB) dir. Niki Caro
3. The White Countess (not sure about dis.) dir. - James Ivory
4. Cinderella Man (Universal/Miramax) dir. - Ron Howard
5. Memoirs Of A Geisha (Sony/Dreamworks) dir. - Rob Marshall

Alternates:

1. Walk The Line (20th Century Fox) dir. - James Mangold
2. Proof (Miramax) dir. - James Madden
3. Jarhead (Universal) dir. - Sam Mendes
4. Kingdom Of Heaven (20th Century Fox) dir. - Ridley Scott
5. Brokeback Mountain (Focus - the only reason I'm listing it) dir. - Ang Lee

1. Manderlay


Ok....no :razz:

It's har dpredicting this early!!! Ill just play by the rules...no remakes (War of the Worlds, King Kong), etc. Rent, The Producers and such are too iffy to be included. I considered The great raid, briefly....but...the cast. Proof....ahhhh. I'll exclude it. I'll probably regret it. Same with Walk the Line.

Top 5:
Jarhead
Oliver Twist
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World
Art School Confidential

Alternates:
The Fountain
Cinderella Man
River Queen
Syrianna
The Constant Gardner

I manaed to narrow down my list to 11 films. Since only 10 are allowed, I decided it'd probably be wise to leave Rumor Has It out.

I haven't started studying my Oscar potential movies quite yet. Lots of time left before they are released, and the news is easier to get. I'm hoping that Sin City is so outstanding, and so original, that it makes some noise, but that's probably not realistic. Not impossible, just nothing I would take to Vegas. :razz:

It looks as if 2005 may be the year of Ralph Fiennes. Not only does he have Oscar-bait roles in The Constant Gardener and The White Countess, he also has Chromophobia and The Wallace and Gromit Movie. Then top that off with the next Harry Potter movie. This early he at least seems like a likely nominee for best actor. Then again, he could be as successful as Jude Law was this year.

wow, you had 4/5 that l was gonna put earlier...l had 1,2,4 and 5 all typed out, but l got sidetracked l'm not really sure bout # 2, but at the time it looked good...my fifth was Paris, je t'aime, only cuz it's prolly my most anticipated...lve no idea if it has any chance; the fact that it's one of those compilation things (20 or so directors) probably means it doesnt...but, oh well...

wow...we'll see how close we are in about a year! I'm sure at least one or two movies are going to show up that no one saw coming. Did anybody really expect the current best pic. nominees besides The Aviator to be nominated about a year ago?

I was thinking about that earlier... :razz:
The Aviator & Finding Neverland came up often.

I had Ray up for best actor, as did others I think. But there was no talk of best picture. Then again Ray Charles' death changed a few things, so I don't know if it would ahve been nominated had that not happened.

Million Dollar Baby was scheduled for 2005, so that was pretty much impossible to predict.


Not sure about Sideways, other than it wasn't predicted.

Either way I'm sure there's be at least a couple of films that come out of nowhere and surprise.

Cinderella Man. d. Ron Howard (Universal/Miramax)
Da Vinci's Mother. d. Jim Sheridan (Fox Searchlight)
Jarhead d. Sam Mendes. (Universal)
Memoirs of a Geisha d. Rob Marhsall. (Sony/Dreamworks)
The New World d. Terrence Mallick. (New Line Cinema)

Here are some possibilities...

http://www.thehotbutton.com/today/hot.b ... 1_fri.html

lol. u remember last year at this time....hell months ago people were predicting alexander for this year

Kingdom of Heaven
Walk The Line
Memoirs of A Geisha
Rent
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire :razz:

If Proof is ever released, I would put it in the race.

Actually, judging by the novel, the fourth Harry Potter film is the one with the biggest Oscar potential. The last 100 pages are just...epic.

King Kong
Memoirs of Geisha
Sin City
Cinderella man
Kingdom of Heaven

Yep, I said King Kong

That, and I've been hearing some great things. I've read a few "scene" reports and they have said it looks like the best yet. Now, those may have just been fans, but I think it'll be a real contender. I'd also watch out for Ralph Fiennes because he has some great material to work with. The last 100 pages are amazing, and if they capture them right, anything is possible.

I agree. By the time the first film came out I said that the fourth novel has some real Oscar potential if done right. As for Ralph Fiennes, he'll do a great job, I'm sure, but judging by the book his appearance won't last more than 10 minutes, not really enough to garner a nomination, I think. However, there is some great potential, maybe not for Best Picture itself, but possibly Best Director. I mean Mike Newell's Four Weddings and a Funeral was nominated, so he isn't some newcomer.

Also the visuals should be amazing considering the Triwizard Tournament. I expect it to grab at least five tech noms.

Personally, I am not a big fan of the Harry Potter movies. I love the books, but all movies have let me down so far. However, each of the films is better than its predecessor. I'd give the first movie a C, the second a B- and the third a B. This trend has me hoping that the fourth movie will be the one I'll really like. The fourth novel is also my favorite one of the series, so...

Well....
You know what just about every single movie mentioned in this thread I have NEVER heard of.
I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but after doing a bit of research over the past week, I am finally familiar with some of these movies...

The New World
This seems like it has amazing potential and finally a nod for Colin Farrell, but it can just as easily let down and I think Alexander is still fresh in people's minds (ironically)

Memoirs of Geisha
I don't know why everyone has placed this as like a big, if not the front-running contender. I can see that it will be a good contender if it delivers but it doesn't sound like your typical Oscar movie.

Walk the Line
This could actually be another Ray... but is that a good thing or a bad thing? IT could be great like Ray, but released a year after Ray itself, will Oscar want to nominate another mucial biopic about a man who was recently deceased? I do, however believe it will garner Pheonix a n Oscar nod.

The Producers
there seems to be a big major musical every year now. Does this have the greats to be nominated? another mucial won't win for a while since Chicago won 2 years aho (unless it's an absolute masterpiece). Considering this was already a movie then made into a broadway show which is being adapted back into a film makes it a little uncertain.... but the broadway show has been phenomenal in the past few years, so who knows? (But remember Phantom?)

Jarhead
I still don't know much about this film except that it's a war movie but Foxx will be constantly buzzed and this will get alot of media attention. all it needs is to be pretty darn good and it could find itself with a nod

All The King's Men
WHAT A CAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I mean WOW!!! If this wasn't a remake it would be a no-brainer, but since it is I'll move with caution with it. I still think it has a great chance, but I'll have to hear more about.

Cinderella Man and Proof
I think these will be released too early in the year to be remembered in the end (unless they push Proof to late 2005, then it has a chance.) Otherwise, I'd say cinderella Man has a great chance. It looks a bit slow from the trailer, but if it really strikes a chord with critics and audiences (and it has to be both!) then it could maybe carry on all the way to december.

King Kong
I don't think anyone could really tell much anything about this movie. But you knwo the academy has opened up to the genre by nominating all of the LOTR films (especially when TTT was really not that hot of a contender). I think it will be prettt hard for another PJ film which is mostly action and blockbuster to get another Picture nod, but if it blows people away then it is just possible.

I really don't know much about Elizabethtown and Kingdom of Heaven is coming out way too early and judging by the look of the film, it won't last all the way to awards season!

My preliminary predictions, though I am still almost clueless on the chances of these films, so basically they're just random guesses...

All the King's Men
Memoirs of Geisha
The New World
Jarhead
the Producers

And other possibilities I have yet to consider...

War of the Worlds
Harry Potter and Goblet of Fire
Sin City
Class Action
the Fountain (this one from the plot line on IMBD sounds a bit impressive)

My predictions don't look much different from other people's predictions. As of now, I see one movie being a lock for a Best Picture nomination and that is Memoirs of a Geisha.

My current predictions:

Memoirs of a Geisha - It has EVERYTHING going for it. The cast, the director, the book it is based on, the crew etc.

The New World - It is Terrence Malick. Nuff' said.

Cinderella Man - The trailer looks good, Russell Crowe + Renne Zellweger is a good combination (both had three Oscar noms in a row and each of them won once). Besides that usually one pre-September movie gets nominated each year (not this one, though...)

All The King's Men - Check its cast

Jarhead - Sam Mendes!!!

I know we're in the middle of Oscar weekend fever, but let's keep the predictions coming.

A couple of articles on next year's race:

AP's David Germain

David Poland

Kris Tapley at OscarWatch

From Kris, it looks like the early words on Brokeback Mountain, Cinderella Man, and Kingdom of Heaven are quite good.