I'm on the verge of predicting Slumdog for the win. I think every film basically has an uphill battle to win Best Picture this year. There is no clear cut favorite.

Ledger will definitely sweep the critics. And Nolan could get some recognition from LA, where he's very well-respected, so TDK doesn't really need NYC or LA anyway, especially when Toronto, Chicago, Boston may be on board. London should be watched out for, too.

Yeah, I was thinking of ROTK as well when I wrote that. ROTK's NYFCC win was quite a shock...

LA could certainly give Nolan Director, NBR should be pretty receptive towards it as well. And the DGA nominated Nolan for Memento.

Me too, except I'm continually carrying the flame for Wall-E. Though I'm glad that TDK is going to have such a huge presence.

Seeing The Dark Knight and WALL-E both score nominations would make up for an Oscar season that has otherwise been very boring.

At this point, I'm feeling good about the Dark Knight/Slumdog Millionaire/Milk trio, and I've still got faith in Benjamin Button. It may not meet expectations (which will likely mean a backlash), but it would have to suck on monunmental levels (which I really don't see happening at all) to be totally out of the race.

Oh, it wouldn't be totally out of the race. Even if it's soppy mediocrity it will still get at least seven nominations and three or four technical wins.

TDK will get nothing from New York critics. WALL-E has a better shot.

Actually, I agree. They gave it a relatively cool reception and are the most haute critical group.

Remember when everyone was creating conspiracy theories as to why the only critics dissing it were from NY?

They'll probably be one of the only critics groups to not award Ledger.

That reminds me I still need to see Memoirs of a Geisha..

I'm keeping the same predictable 5 I had a month ago:

Australia
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight

I still don't see Australia/Revolutionary Road failing more than Button, honestly. What's next? Rachel Getting Married? The Wrestler? Doubt? I doubt it heh.

Australia and Button have equal budgets.

I can't wait for Benjamin Button to be unveiled. It's prob. my most anticipated movie of the year.

Much better.

It's not completely out of the game yet:

http://64.14.20.205/m/frostnixon/

HR and Variety liked it.

Still no, not without Queen-like reviews. This year is weak, but not 2005 weak.

Langella is still in contention, but overall I can't put it ahead of a film like Doubt, which sits at 100% at RT and has more acting powers, for BP.

Slumdog Millionaire is now 87 at MC with 5 100s, not as good as Sideways, but better than LMS or Juno.

But Doubt has only 2 reviews so far

That's weird. Somehow I clearly remembered that I saw 6 reviews there.

Maybe you mean Milk? It has 100% with 6 reviews (I've been checking the RT pages for both each day for a week now )

Probably.

Right now I'd guess this year ends up a lot like 2006, with TDK playing the role of Departed and Slumdog as LMS, the established #2 that nevertheless doesn't really have a shot to take the top dog down. Obviously BB can not nearly be counted out, but it would fit if it played the part of Dreamgirls by getting the most nominations but missing BP... also Dreamgirls was probably Departed's biggest competitor for the win until it didn't get nominated.

Eh, I'm beginning to feel that Slumdog really really shouldn't be underestimated for winning Picture. Searchlight has been in the Oscar spotlight for a while now, and they know how to play the game VERY well at this point (It takes a lot of smarts to get a film like Juno four major nominations). The main reason they haven't won yet is probably because all they've had are contemporary comedies with no technical support, the kind of movie that hasn't won since Annie Hall 31 years ago. Slumdog is more of a heart-warming drama and could get a few technical noms (Including Editing, the supposedly much-needed category for the win).

I'd at least give it the edge over The Dark Knight at the moment.