Just to play devil's advocate here, I wanted to discuss a very real possibility about the Best Actor award, and even though I fully expect Foxx to bring home the gold at the Oscars, it's not like we haven't seen great bio pic performances that probably could or should have won in the past, not win, or not even be nominated.

Kevin Spacey played Bobby Darin in Beyond the Sea last year, and HE even did his own singing, yet didn't get a nomination.

Sissy Spacek played Lorreta Lynn in Coal Miner's daughter, and did all of her own singing, as well as giving an incredible performance. (she did win)

Will Smith, who was every bit as good as Foxx when he portrayed Ali, was nominated, but didn't win.

Jessica Lange, who played Patsy Kline in Sweet Dreams, and didn't do her own singing, was nominated, but didn't win.

Beverly D'Angelo, who played Patsy Kiline in Coal Miner's Daughter, and DID do her own singing, wasn't even nominated.

Jim Carrey, who did Andy Kauffman in Man on the Moon as well as Will Smith did Ali and Jamie Foxx did Ray Charles, and wasn't nominated.

Anthony Hopkins was nominated for Nixon, but didn't win.

Val Kilmer, who was Jim Morrison every bit as much as Foxx was ray Charles, didn't get a nomination.

Robert Downey Jr. was nominated for Chaplin, but didn't win.

Gary Cooper was nominated for playing Lou Gehrig in The Pride of the Yankees, but didn't win.

Dennis Quaid didn't get a nom for playing Jerry Lee Lewis in Great Balls of Fire!

In fact, I couldn't find an example of a nominated actor EVER winning a lead actor Oscar for portraying a known celebrity.

If somebody knows of one, please let me know. ( http://www.filmsite.org/bestactor2.html )

When you look at the history, it's actually not on Foxx's side (unless you count the handicapped angle), as this is his first nomination( second if you count his best supporting nom this year), and the academy has a history of not rewarding black actors in lead acting until recently, so one has to wonder how that will play out with Morgan Freeman being considered a favorite for Best Supporting Actor. Perhaps it is on his side, as Ray did get a BP nom, and I'm not sure how many of the movies I listed above received one, so maybe that will play into things, maybe not.

You can see what I'm getting at, and if there was ever an award this year that was a "lock" that shocked everybody by not winning, Jamie Foxx's performance in Ray would be it.

One can argue that De-Lovely, Beyond the Sea, The Doors, Great Balls of Fire, La Bamba weren't really deserving of any awards attention. For music related biographies, Ray seems to be of a step above technically, although The Doors is a fav of mine .

There is a pretty heavy and noticable correlation between Best Actor and Best Picture. Since 1970 there are only 8 instances where an actor won for a film that wasn't nominated for Best Picture.

2001 - Denzel Washington, Training Day
1995 - Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas
1993 - Tom Hanks, Philidephia
1990 - Jeremy Irons, Reversal of Fortune
1987 - Michael Douglas, Wall Street
1986 - Paul Newman, The Color of Money
1974 - Art Carney, Harry and Tonto
1973 - Jack Lemmon, Save the Tiger

I was saying months ago that Jamie Foxx's chances at winning the Oscar were extremely favorable to the nomination of Ray in Best Picture.


Ironically, the second place person to win would be Leonardo DiCaprio, who is also playing a well known celebrity.

I still think there will be an endless political and racial shit-storm if Jamie Foxx doesn't win at this point.

Not that he doesn't deserve to win, it is probably the defining performance of the year.

Yes, I forgot about La Bamba. I also edited in Robert Downey Jr. for Chaplin, and Gary Busey was nominated for the Buddy Holly Story, I believe, but didn't win. I wouldn't exactly call Hughes a celeb, anymore than I would call Ghandi or Mozart (Amadeus). They are known real life people, but not people that spent time in front of the camera for a living.

There could be racial uprisings over a Foxx loss, but if he or Freeman win in the supporting category, that would lessen the blow, and awarding somebody like the beloved Eastwood, who mysteriously got a nomination that was well deserved, but nobody expected, would probably lessen it even more.

I'm still scratching my head over the reason Eastwood got his nomination. In the words of Clint Eastwood in Unforgiven, "deserve's got nothing to do with it" , and that is true of the academy, so when taking "deserving" out of the equation, why the out of left field nomination? I have no idea what the reasoning behind it was, but it wasn't done without something being behind it.

There is a pretty heavy and noticable correlation between Best Actor and Best Picture. Since 1970 there are only 8 instances where an actor won for a film that wasn't nominated for Best Picture.

2001 - Denzel Washington, Training Day - MOST DESERVED.

I beg to differ, Nicholas Cage in 1995 and Tom Hanks in 1993 were far more deserved. Actually, I am surprised Leaving Las Vegas wasn't nominated.

As for the shock, well, no actor is ever a lock I guess, there is always room for surprise, but Jamie Foxx is as close to being a lock as it gets. In my own personal opinion, if Jamie Foxx won't win, then it'll be Eastwood because I don't see the point in awarding Cheadle or Depp before Foxx. That leaves Eastwood and DiCaprio, however something tells me that the Academy will rather go for the "overdue" Eastwood than the young DiCaprio. Truly, Jamie Foxx is young as well, but he has a huge bonus playing a not too long deceased beloved entertainer.

I would put Foxx's chances at around 99.99%, so yeah there's a .01% chance of someone else winning. But I'm so certain he's going to win that I'll bet my dvd collection on it.

Does anyone have $30,000 to spare for a wager? :razz:

WHy do you all think jamie will win so easily?

I haven't seen it, and will be trying to get it in this weekend, but I'm calling it Shock. The whole point of shock is not that he doesn't deserve it, and not that his likelyhood of winning it isn't going to be 95%, but that the other 5% will somehow sneak up on it.

You know that article Niki Finke article that Killuminat posted? Where she said in a "perfect" world Cheadle would win, well that suggestion is going to hurt Foxx more than any of the other nominees. That's the 5% chance, not that Cheadle will take it 9he won't) but that he'll siphon off enough votes from Foxx that someone else with take it.

Close to lock because Hollywood is self conscious about the lack of good roles for minority actors. But I always believe shocks are possible so I don't count anything out.

I do think it's a lock, and I'm willing to bet one year of my salary on it. It's the same as Julia Roberts in 2001.

I am willing to bet on that he'll win as well, I agree with Xiayun, it must be the most certain call since Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich.

Jim Carey received a nomination for Man on the Moon...really? :wink:

Other statements are just opinion...no way do I think Will Smith was deserving of an Oscar win the way Jamie Foxx might be.

There is no such thing as a lock at the Oscars. But he seems to be as close as it gets. But I don't know, there's something that tells me it wont happen. Though it's just intuition.

Not really

I thought he did. I did that all by memory, and like they say, it's the first thing to go. (unless you lose your hair first, and I'd rather lose the memory. #-o )

As far as Will Smith, I was a huge fan of Ali growing up, and he was as good as it gets in portraying him. The movie was slow and boring, and any movie dealing with the energetic Ali should have been anything but.

*quickly heads off to edit first post in hopes that nobody notices*

There is also a difference between Smith portraying Ali and Foxx portraying Charles...Ali is still alive.

more or less...

The Ali that everybody came to love isn't. His disease is a very sad thing, because he's not the same person at all to all of his fans. That Ali is as gone as Ray Charles is.

The one reason you all are forgetting...

All these actors are getting a fraction of the press and attention Jamie Foxx is getting.

Well, if you see it this way, yes, but still, he is alive and Ray Charles just died some months ago, that

I think it's a real shame that Leonardo DiCa almost any recognition for his performance, which in my opinion is just about on par with Jamie Foxx's.

One possibility that is pretty far-fetched because it would require alot on the part of random unanimity (if that's a word).

What if Jamie Foxx won for Collateral and Leonardo DiCaprio won for Best Actor???


I really hate to see DiCaprio's performance downplayed because for Foxx as well, it is a career defining performance. Titanic was his popularity defining hit, not his best work. Frankly, I don't know if he will ever have the oppertunity to match this epic role.

I tend to agree. The only thing he's won is the Golden Globe, and that's because he wasn't up against Foxx. Foxx was acceptional, and probably will never be able to top it. But, Leo probably will. He has shown quite a few times that he can act, this being his best performance, imo. He'll have more chances, while this may be Jaime's only two nominations.

I haven't seen The Aviator yet (I should this weekend though) but I wouldn't mind if Jamie Foxx won for Ray, it's a fantastic performance. (I have a feeling he'll win) Though... if Eastwood won I would be much happier.

I think Leo's best peformances is What's Eating Gilbert Grape, and for the most part he is as good in The Aviator as he was in Catch Me If You Can.

Definately up there with his best, but it's not like Leo won't be around in the future. He's only 30.

Well if he does get snubbed, this shouldn't surprise anyone since look at what happened to Bill Murray??? :???: Hell, he should've won an Oscar and instead got bent over and drilled hard.. I won't hold my breath for it though since we all know by now how the members of the Academy think..

I agree and that is the reason why odds are much higher for Foxx as well. DiCaprio will get another chance in the future, a role like Foxx' is unique, though.