But the "Director" voters will most likely know that Eastwood won't get Best Actor (considering how much of a frontrunner Foxx is) and therefore vote for Eastwood as Best Director. Furthermore, they might vote for Eastwood simply because he is more deserving this year...

As I pointed out several times Eastwood is not more deserving as a director this year, his project was far easier to shoulder. If there is gonna be a split it should be M$B for Best Picture and Aviator for director

I did not say that I think Eastwood is more deserving, but I suggest that Academym Members might think that. Not only because of the great work he did on Million Dollar Baby, but much rather because he delivered it twice within one year. Now that is an achievement.

In reading the following, it seems you are really swinging this award very close. Look at what I bolded - he has the most going for him, chances are we will see him on the platform but I sense an upset. Yes you are really spliting this.

Before tonight, I pointed out in the DGA thread that Scorcese is 0 for about 12 on the Oscar and DGA. I never saw him over Eastwood.

And now with CLINT getting the DGA award and now Scorcese is 0 for 13, do you still agree with all of the bold esp chances are ............


Martin Scorcese (The Aviator) - Scorcese is the definition of "overdue" in this category. There were few people who didn't expect him to win for Gangs of New York back in 2003. Everyone expected a Best Picture/Best Director split. This split happened, only that the Oscar went to Roman Polanski instead of Scorcese. The Aviator garnered Scorcese his fifth nomination and he is certainly the frontrunner in the category at the moment. He has also scored many awards for his directing in The Aviator so far and seemed unbeatable until Eastwood got the Golden Globe for Million Dollar Baby. Of course, you can explain it by saying thet Scorcese has already won the Golden Globe for Gangs of New York two years ago while Eastwood lost to Return of the King last year. Nonetheless, this win has shown that Scorcese is not absolutely unbeatable. Chances are very high that we'll see Scorcese on the stage at this year's Oscars, but he is not a lock yet. I am certain that The Aviator is a lock for at least Best Director or Best Picture, but it is not a lock for both and something tells me that The Aviator will win Best Picture due to the many things. It is a movie about the 30s in Hollywood, the golden era, it portrays many of Hollywood legends. Considering that Hollywood people are the ones voting, it's hard to imagine them not voting The Aviator as Best Picture. Therefore, I see its Best Picture status as a more certain thing than its Best Director chances. I won't deny it, Scorcese has the most going for it, but I sense an upset here.

What is there to disagree with? I am sure most will still say that Scorcese has more going for him? So what? I still predict Eastwood to take it home, now even moreso, after the DGA win.

Great write-up! I agree on most of the awards, except Supporting Actress. I think that either Natalie or Clive will win, but they could both lose.

Great write-up! I agree on most of the awards, except Supporting Actress. I think that either Natalie or Clive will win, but they could both lose.

I also disagree with the Actress as Hillary Swank has too much going for her to lose. See the USA analysis.

Also on this statement - However, I promise you one thing and that is that if Depp gets nominated again anytime soon, he'll win.

I don't know how you can promise this because you never know of the situation, THE POLITICS or who he is up againist. Sorry, this is my biggest problem with Lecter, Lecter just making statements that aren't backed up properly.

Thank you.

Knowing your love for Closer, I tend to think it's wishful thinking

Haha...might be.[size](probably is)[/size] But you gotta admit Clive has a great chance of winning. Natalie I'm not so sure about. I think she should win, but she's up against tough competition.

If Closer at least got a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, I'd give them more chances, but it seems as if the Academy really didn't like Closer much. Also Natalie as well as Owen have the thing going against him that they are both first-time nominees (unlike Blanchett) and are young (unlike Freman).

Marcia Gay Harden, James Coburn, Jennifer Connelly, Jim Broadbent, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chris Cooper, Benicio Del Toro, Angelina Jolie, Kim Basinger, Cuba Gooding, Jr., Juliette Binoche, Mira Sorvino and Kevin Spacey all won supporting Oscars on their first nomination. (And that is just from the past 10 years). I'm not saying it'll necesarilly play in their favor, because Freeman and Blanchett have great shots at winning, but it could. :wink:

If I ever had any doubts about Academy having a policy, then all these doubts faded away when ROTK won 11 Oscars last year, in a perfect sweep. I am not trying to downplay ROTK, I'd have given it Best Picture and Best Director as well, but certainly not all 11 Oscars which obviously was a payoff for under-awarding the previous installments of the series.

Another decisions by the Academy that I think were caused by a certain policy were Denzel Washington winning for Training Day (they wouldn't give it to Crowe two years in a row), Russell Crowe winning for Gladiator over Tom Hanks (because the Academy wouldn't want Hanks to have three Oscars already)... These are arguable, of course.