This list is exactly the reason why there shouldn't be a people's choice award. Crap or mediocre movies like Shrek 2, POTC or F 9/11 could be winning...

I can see a strong possibility of an acting sweep. I think Eastwood was the strongest of the 3, although they were all strong, and Clint made sure that the rest was taken care of. I can't see how he could be denied some recognition, either for picture, director, or actor, especially with a suprise acting nomination thrown in (one that is deserved should he win, as he was sensational). I don't see how the academy will make him a loser in every category, after delivering this masterpiece right on top of last year's masterpiece, Mystic River, which is generally accepted to be the movie that would have won if not for ROTK. Would they really nominate Eastwood in a category that nobody expected, just to give him one more personal loss for the night, or does his suprise acting acting nom mean something about how the awards will go?

The Aviator was developed by Michael Mann (The Insider, Ali, Heat) with Leonardo DiCaprio. After directing back to back biopics (The Insider, Ali) Mann did not want to direct a third biopic and decided to produce The Aviator instead. Mann and DiCaprio asked Scorsese to direct The Aviator. Fortunately Marty agreed and the result IMO is 2004s best film.

This is not the first time Marty has directed a film developed by another director. Cape Fear was originally a Steven Spielberg film. Spielberg dropped out as director and he and Robert De Niro asked Marty to direct the film.

M$B won't have an acting sweep, but Eastwood will NOT walk away empty-handed this year. I think M$B will win best pic, with director going to Scorsese.

This is why I believe that he'll get the Best Director award. The Aviator has too much going for it at the moment to lose, but I can see the oscar going to Eastwood for direction. I mean, it is simply an astounding achievement of a director to deliver two masterpieces in a row and it's the direction that deserves to be awarded. As for Best Actor, seriously, I don't see anyone beating out Foxx at this point.

Eastwood will go empty-handed. Neither will M$B sweep the acting categories - it may very well settle with a supporting acting award - nor will Clint take the directing statue. It's going to Marty, no doubt about it. The Academy just won't do that to Scorsese again. It's his year. M$B may look good on paper, but it has so much going against it. Before Clint wins the directing statue it will go to Mike Leigh...

Clint will not go empty-handed home, really, he won't.

Then he better get Chris Rock to steal one from the sound editing guys for him as well... He is nominated in the two categories that are pre-determined to go to someone else: Jamie Foxx and Marty

Clint will go empty handed,Scorsese will win the BD oscar,Clint already has 2 oscars,and IMO scorsese deserves it for this film.

I'm going to have to agree. People are talking about how overdue Clint is with his two years in a row with great films, but Scorcese has a whole career of fantastic films and he has NEVER won. The Academy is not going to pass this up. Scorcese is way overdue for a Director win, and so he will get that.

If Clint Eastwood beats out Jamie Foxx for Best Actor, it will be a huge shame. Foxx has got that award. It's the most solid call for an acting category this year.

PEACE, Mike

That, I agree with.

Can't believe some people are picking the winner when they haven't seen all of the performances. ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)

Dude, to predict the Oscar most of the times it is better NOT to have seen all the movies. Cos if you haven't realised it, the Oscar isn't about who made the best performance of the year at all. It is far more about politics than about achievement... Soory to burst your bubble

Yeah, I think there have been fine films that directors have stepped into, I just really don't think this is one of them. I remember people kvetching about how GONY felt synthetic due to the rehabbed script...what must those people be thinking after this one? I just think it lacked any coherent or consistant vision is all. It was a bit too biographical without using Hughes to explore either the Aviation Industry, Post-war accusations of profiteering, or the film industry. It was just kind of meh. Look, here's Hughes, here's his first love, here is his second one, he's a jealous girl, here is him being obsessed with flying faster and farther. Here's him washing himself obsessively. So there you have it.... It was still a very rich production, and it touched upon all the spaces at least in historical reference, which made it interesting, it just didn't flesh anyone of the out, so it was only so interesting.

@Lecter, I agree with you. I think Clint gets director, not actor.

=D>

Indeed. Sometimes the "sentimental" and "overdue" factors play a huge role. A good example is Conrad L. Hall getting the Cinematography oscar for Road To Perdtion, the movie's only oscar. Certainly, his cinematography was good in that movie, but if he didn't die some months before that, I doubt he'd have won.

Doesn't the same apply to Clint as marty, since Clint has had a long career of solid performances, yet has never won a best acting Oscar? I don't see it as shameful if he would win. He gave an outstanding performance, and definitely earned it if he wins.

Eastwood doesn't seem to be considered "due" in terms of his acting. Eastwood and his acting does not nearly equate to the thought that Scorcese is overdue, not even close. Clint didn't even get virtually any recognition for his role in Million Dollar Baby before the Oscars. He suddenly got a nom here. I don't think Clint is more worthy than Foxx, or seen as overdue at all. I see Jamie Foxx as being incredibly worthy for Best Actor, since he add two great performances this year, and the Academy actually recognized both. It's clear they like him. Because of the whole situation, I think it would be a huge shame is Eastwood won over Foxx. Foxx deserves this award this year.

PEACE, Mike

As Eastwood has won other Oscars - I don't think he will go into the we need to give him this Oscar.

Also since he is really overshadowed - Swank, Freeman and his directing effect in MDB, I don't see him getting the acting one.

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Question could the academy think that he might get picture or director which could hurt his acting chances.

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By the way, as much as I loved MDB, I still place Unforgiven as his #1 - most people, here not the Oscars, just don't give Westerns there due.

I agree. Foxx was phenomenal in his role. While I thought Ray was just an okay movie, not deserving of a Best Picture nomination, Foxx really shined in it. Eastwood is considered somewhat recongnized already because he at least won an Oscar for Directing.

Well said Lecter, basically what I posted seconds before you.

Well that doesn't change my thoughts on this. One of the current best picture nominees this year is worse than all of these movies in my view... *shrug*

I've seen everything but Being Julia and Vera Drake and Closer in the top 3 categories???

- Just pointing out that I said some people.

- What is the deal on Closer - no interest or haven't made it yet?

Eastwood gave a performance that would be justified in getting an Oscar. I'm sure you would agree that the academy, who loves him, would consider him more "due" than Jamie Foxx, and that was my argument. (have you seen M$B yet, BTW?) I personally think Foxx will win, but there would be nothing shameful in Eastwood winning. His performances is very worthy.

I am completely clueless which one it might be