I think there are several who are heavy favorites, like Morgan Freeman, for instance, but I think the only true locks are Jamie Foxx for best actor and Spider-Man 2 for best FX.

I think Morgan will win. he BETTER.
He's one of my favorite actors.

I don't know why, and other than gut instinct (and my previous rationale about him and Cheadle) I would agree with, but something tells me it goes to Leo this year. Don't know why...

You know what I see as the big difference between Leo and Foxx? Both are playing real people, but when I see commercials for the Aviator, I see Leo, when I see commercials for Ray, I see Ray Charles. The performances are arguably apples and oranges, but as far as imagery goes, Foxx is clearly at another level with his performance. That'll be more than enough to write his ticket.

Well yeah..I'm not psyched Leo is getting it. i don't think it was that spectacular a performance on his part. I haven't seen Ray yet, but part of the reason you don't look at it and see Foxx, is because Foxx was unknown (outside of the In Living Color fanclub?) until the beginning of this year. He went from doing some dinky movie about an aiplane (or something? remember, earlier this year? what was it called?) to two stellar performances, but he's about the "freshest" face out there. That's why he can meld into his charcaters so well. I'd say my Leo call is femenine intution, but I know I'd get slammed for that, so instead I'll just call it "I'm right and y'all are wrong." :razz:

BTW, is your chest getting any better?

The locked locks I see are Jamie Foxx for Best Actor (academy simply can't deny him, not after his Globe speech; there will be a riot if it happens), The Incredibles for Best Animated Feature, Sideways for Best Adapted Screenplay, and Spider-Man 2 for Visual Effects.

The ones I won't change my predictions no matter what happens in guilds are Martin Scorsese for best director, The Sea Inside for Best Foreign Film, The Passion of the Christ for Makeup, and The Incredibles for Sound Editing, but if those are upset, I won't be shocked as I would for the previous ones.

My chest is doing fine, thanks. Still not able to breath 100% normally, but I have my puffer if I need any help.

Tom Cruise has done many Oscar worthy performances, and I put Leo in that kind of a class, in that he'll never be rewarded, just noticed. If he does get an award, it'll be down the road when he does something that is just head and shoulders above the rest. I don't mean to call you on anything feminine where you're concerned, because you obviously have me beat in every department except hair length :razz: , but, this will be one of those cases where I look forward to saying "I told you so". If you need any help coming up with a good excuse come Oscar night for why you got that one wrong, just ask, because I have a bunch that I haven't used yet, and can probably give you a few choice selections. #-o

Good picks, I agree with them.

Cruise would have gotten it for Rain Man had not Hoffman also been nominated. Leo is not like Cruise in that he isn't a perennial nominee. In fact, he was the only one not even nominated for Titanic. He missed out a nom in GONY as well. In fact the only time he has been nominated was years ago for supporting actor in What's Eating Gilbert Grape when he was an unknown. He's not going to get many more nods at all, so they're going to throw it at him asap so that they don't feel the need to nominate him again for another 25 years ala Chris Walken. That and I do think getting a double nod doesn't bode well for someone. Moore got screwed for it, and Weaver did too way back. Splitting the votes since most likely voters are not going to vote him in both categories. The Collateral nom actually works to his disadvantage. Had he just had the Ray nom things would be alot more secure. I still think think Cheadle is going to take a little bit away as well, and Leo will sneak in for the win. I will let you know more after I see Ray, but right now I'm sticking to it.

Haha! Hair length...look its not my fault an oven burned off all of mine a year ago, its still growing back! I think you had best save up those excuses on Oscar come Oscar night because chances are you are going to have to use them yourself, thank-you very much. :razz:

Cruise is a perenial nominee? I can only think of a couple off the top of my head that he was nominated for, and considering the number of movies that he's done in comparison to Leo, Leo may even be leading by % points. :razz: Leo's young. He's got plenty of time to get an award. He's not going anywhere anytime soon unless he decides to.

I actually think the double nod for Foxx is the ace in the whole that he has. He's got no shot at winning best supporting actor, not with Freeman running against him and providing such stellar work throughout his career that he's received no Oscars for. That leaves two choices for the academy. Snub him twice, or snub him once, and give him the best actor award for a performance that really turned some heads. Another thing he has going for him, is that Ray Charles just died, so his performance means even more to sentimental voters.

I'll write you a special speech for you to post after the Oscars. I'll try to keep the praising of my wisdom to a minimum where you're concerned, but there will be some of that flavor to it. =D>

Ah shoot, that's actually a good arguement.

Can you keep the speech kinda short and with big letters 'cause I'm going to be pretty drunk and I might have a little trouble reading it. You'll forgive me if I accidentally confuse the words *wisdom* and *pompous idiot that still has no clue what the film Flag Wars was about even though its about Cleveland* in you speech whenever they are in regards to your picking Foxx. I swear its just accidental..its the champaign speaking. :razz:

Oooh... #-o That stung a little, but I'll take it under advisement when I'm reading your version of the speech. :razz:

Uh-oh, I just realized how useless my diss was since its Termi thats from Cleveland and you're actually from Columbus area. You know, tripled with Chris we've got people in the big three major cities in Ohio, and all those cities begin with C. I'm going to have to start keeping a cheat-sheet or something because otherwise I'm going to keep botching lovely one-liner opportunities.

Anyhow, I think foreign is down to The Sea inside and Underground. I'm actually leaning toward Underground despite what the Golbes went with, because euthenasia is a much trickier subject here right now. I'm pretty sure there was just a huge court case on it actually. Underground and Sea both haven't been playing here much, so its not possible to really judge on reception. But its still anyone's call between those two, I just think its a lock it will be one of those two.

I sadly think super-size might be a lock, even though I'd much prefer Brothels or Weeping Camel take it. I'm still pissed Tupac is up there if we're going to do technicalities. If we're not and we're just judging on project vision, it was actually an interesting attempt (if not fully realized).

haha...Columbus is about 3 hours from me, and Cleveland is only about an hour. :razz:

After seeing Million Dollar Baby, I can't see how it could possibly NOT win, but I still have to see the others. It feels like my heart was broken after I watched that movie. I want to see them all before the Oscars, so Sideways is probably next week, if not sooner, Ray comes out on DVD in a few days, but both it and Finding Neverland are playing at the dollar theater that's only a few miles away, and I'm sure that the Aviator won't be hard to find.

I agree with all of these, there are incredibly fine music-related docus every year which get ejected and this one seeps in.

Super-Size Me is probably a lock to win, and that frightens me, because I'm disappointed that that horribly made film got noticed because of its gimmick and with Bowling for Columbine a few years ago it sets up this potential that these mini-Moores will start popping up and making all of these extremely liberal and flakey documentaries, pushing the real field documentarians out. Just my opinion on that one.

As the Oscar weekend is starting, who are you feeling are the locks?

Final thoughts.

hot off the presses.

Foxx Could Be Oscar Night's Only Sure Bet
Sunday February 27 10:39 AM ET
AP

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Everyone is giving it to Foxx - no big surprise - he he.

A bump for this thread and for those who would like to boast about their prophetic talents.

2 for 2 baby \:D/