Those 2 TDK trailers blow the Indy ones completely out of the water. It seems to be riding completely on nostalgia even in the marketing. I'm sure it'll be better than the first two Star Wars prequels since Lucas is not directing and Spielberg is, but I wouldn't be shocked a bit if it turns out to be in Temple of Doom (or worse) territory rather than Raiders or Crusade, as far as quality is concerned. Now, I am pretty confident it will win the year but I do not think it will make any more than $330 million domestic.

Temple of Doom is still a very well liked film by audiences, so if its as good as TOD I will be more than confident that this soar past 350 million. And no, TDK trailers were hardly impressive either. In my opinion, there isn't one film that has been marketed great this year yet, which is surprising. Hancock may come the closest. Everything else is average at best compared to blockbusters of years past. The explosion in the new one was good though. A 7.4 rating on imdb, a 92% at rottentomates, and an A- at cinema scores. It may have been scary and gross out in 1984, but its hardly that bad these days and would be welcomed more than likely today.

I agree that apart from Iron Man - marketing has been lacking so far for other films. However, thats probably because its still too early for some of the films.

But Indy - though on name recognition alone will do huge business - that extra $50m that can propel it into mega-blockbuster isnt guranateed due to the subdued marketing campaign thus far. Though I think it will pick up immensely once Iron Man has opened. Nothing to worry about yet.

Well in my opinion it played well on Robert Downey Jr fans (Small select who love Zodiac and Kiss Kiss Bang Bang) and Iron man fans. When I've seen it with regular people, the trailer Im talking about. It has rarely get that much other than "Hmmm, I dont know that much about Iron man, is he cool?" In which I would reply, "It doesnt matter, RDJ will make him cool"

I don't know what you guys are talking about with this "no marketing" business...I've seen the first TV spot at least twenty or thirty times on TV (both on adult networks like ESPN and kid networks like Cartoon Network which my bro watches). In fact, I'm getting a bit sick of it, and am excited for a new spot to take over.

And really, the summer is so crowded that they just need to wait for Prince Caspian to come out, giving them a week in the clear, and just hammer the world with marketing for a solid week until everyone knows about it, and it'll do well.

Jeffrey Wells posted new tracking numbers and INDY is already tracking through the roof:

84/26/03 SPEED RACER
80/32/07 WHAT HAPPENS

96/40/12 NARNIA 2

89/56/22 INDY 4

Can you explain those numbers again, forgot what they mean?

1. General awareness
2. Definite interest
3. First choice

Thanks!

Do you have any numbers for past films? I'm sure they are here somewhere, too lazy to search, though.

Indy has nearly double the "first choice" as Narnia? I know that Narnia is a family film and all (and thus, might not be best represented by such tracking), but that statistic bodes extremely well for Indy.

SPIDER-MAN 3 had 95/44/32 three weeks ahead of the opening (just like INDY)

http://www.indianajones.com/site/index. ... adventures

The official website got the new trailer (go "Videos", than "Trailers", than click on the first small picture on the left)

Have fun!

i have a lot of trouble believing indiana jones has 90% general awareness.

probably a little of both meaning Narnia wont do as well as many have said

FINAL prediction:

85m Fri-Sun.
124m Thurs-Sun.
315m DOM total.
550m overseas.

Spiderman 3 tracking was a little better than indy's but that's basically saying it's going to be huge. TDK i think has the best trailers of the year so far.

Steve Mason has posted this about Indy 4.

EARLY TRACKING: Despite early internet naysayers, INDIANA JONES should finish with a 5-day in the $162M-$172M range!
My intention is not to review the film, but I have sources who were at the same screening that ShogunMaster attended, and they feel that Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull falls short of Raiders, not surprisingly, but it is far stronger than 1984’s Temple of Doom, and on par with 1984’s The Last Crusade.

Paramount and Lucasfilm are keeping this certain mega-hit under wraps until Sunday (May 1 at Cannes with an afternoon press screening and another Sunday night. Real reviews will likely start posting as soon as Monday morning. This movie is, however, critic proof.

A studio exec shared the latest tracking data for Crystal Skull with me, and these numbers are spectacular, especially given that the film will not be in theatrical release for another 9 days. Un-Aided Awareness, an excellent measure of anticipation, is already at 15%, better than Prince Caspian, which opens this Friday. Definite Interest for the new Indy is a staggering 63%, and it has an overall First Choice of 28%. This is all a way of saying that the movie cannot miss.

It opens on Thursday, May 22 at Midnight (Wednesday night), so this will make for a huge opening day, which I am projecting in the $41M-$44M range (that includes Wednesday night after midnight screenings). Then Friday should be $32M-$34M, Saturday will likely tick up to $34M-$36M and the Sunday leading into the holiday will be on par with Friday. With a Memorial Day Monday of $22M-$24M, I am calling for a 5-day gross in the $162M-$172M range.

As 4-day Memorial Day weekend grosses go, Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull will likely be the all-time 2nd or 3rd-best in history. If it reaches the high end of my 5-day range, the new Indy has a chance to become the all-time #1 5-day opening in history, topping George Lucas’ Star Wars Episode III – Revenge of the Sith.

Read the entire article here:

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2008/05/early-trackin-1.html

No film in its 5 days for a blockbuster ever didnt at least get a 2 multiplier. If it does get the record for 5 day, or at least comes close like it seems it will, and is as good as the people are starting to claim, I think 350 is a minimum now. But 450, we shall see

i think itll open over 175 5 day but get a multiplier under 2.

It could do so, However Narnia will stop it from getting over 165 million imo.



However, I hate to say it but I have gut feeling that there will be a disappointment. I had it before AWE opening even though I was predicting a 155 million 4-day.

I see and 155 million 5-day however the film will have decent legs.

Well after Spiderman 3, can anything be worse.

335M final

Thats some beautiful tracking there. And as far as quality - if its on par with Last Crusade - I'll be more than happy as thats my favourite one!

Just on multipliers ;

Here are the approximate mulyipliers (based on 4 days) for the films that opened Mem Day weekend since 1997...

2007 Pirates : AWE 2.12
2006 Xmen 3 1.93
2005 Madagascar 3.16
2005 The Longest Yard 2.72
2004 The Day After Tomorrow 2.17
2003 Bruce Almighty 2.84
2002 Insomnia 2.58
2002 Spirit Stallion of the Cimaron 3.15
2002 Enough 2.33
2001 Pearl Harbor 2.64
2000 MI2 3.04
2000 Shanghai Noon 2.96
1999 Notting Hill 4.20
1998 Godzilla 2.44
1997 The Lost World 2.54

Using Steve Mason's predictions - lets say its 5-day is $170m and its first day is $42m - that would mean a 4-day of $128m.

Using Pirates AWE's multiplier - that would result in $271 + $42 = $313m TOTAL

I think thats a worst case scenario (as long as Indy opens to $170m+ 5day)

More realistically - I think it can get atleast a 2.3 multiplier (on the 4-day) so that would mean (again using the upper end of Mason's prediction)

2.3 x 128 = $294m + $42m = $336m TOTAL GROSS

That fits right in where alot of people are predicting on this board. So things are looking good.

Well, Narnia's start can only mean good things for Indiana Jones. Predicting a $80m+ 3-Day and $120m 4-Day. Is this one getting previews on Wednesday? or midnights...Narnia didn't get any right?

Nope, just 12:01 on Thursday sneaks, so the whole day will be included. Even if Narnia rebounds, its probably not going to do much more than 40 million 4 day. Indy at least hitting 160 for the 5 day seems like a lock now.

I still think Indy will break the 5 day record, but well have to see tracking before a final prediction.