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 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts 
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Superfreak
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
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indiana jones doctor pepper!

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Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:35 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
LA Times

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The Indiana Jones series is known for its cliffhangers. But the real cliffhanger in the long-awaited upcoming sequel is when -- and perhaps even if -- the famous filmmakers and the star will make money.

That's because before executive producer George Lucas, director Steven Spielberg and leading man Harrison Ford get their hands on any treasure, Paramount Pictures will need to collect $400 million in revenue to recover all its costs and make a sizable fee to distribute "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull."

If that seems like a no-brainer, consider the norm in Hollywood, where top-tier filmmakers and stars traditionally earn huge upfront fees and get a big cut of ticket sales before a studio recoups its investment.

The atypical arrangement between the studio and the triumvirate illustrates the new economic realities of the movie business. As production and marketing costs continue to escalate amid flat theater attendance and declining DVD sales, studios are increasingly looking for ways to protect themselves from colossal losses on a single picture.

"It's good for both parties," said media analyst Harold Vogel. "If the talent has a true belief in the movie, they are taking a little more risk by getting no significant compensation upfront but a much larger share of the ultimate profitability," he explained. "It makes sense for studios, which are cash-constrained."

With the economics of the movie industry becoming less lucrative in recent years, the studios would prefer to have talent shoulder more of the risk. One way is getting expensive stars, directors, writers and producers to defer their customary fees and forfeit their cut of box office dollars from the first ticket sold, known as first dollar gross.

Walt Disney Studios, for example, had such an arrangement with producer Jerry Bruckheimer and star Johnny Depp on the "Pirates of the Caribbean" movies, and Bruckheimer and actor Nicolas Cage on the recent "National Treasure" sequel. On those hits, everyone made money.

However, most movies are not big hits, which is why studios like these so-called break-even deals. It also can prevent them from losing their shirts. Sony Pictures would have lost a lot more than it did on "The Holiday" had writer-director Nancy Meyers and stars Cameron Diaz and Jude Law not agreed to forgo their usual "first-dollar" paydays. Instead, they earned their upfront cash fees.

The 2006 romantic comedy, which cost more than $100 million to produce, grossed only $63 million at the U.S. box office and had weak DVD sales.

"Crystal Skull," which opens worldwide May 22, is the first "Indiana Jones" movie in 19 years. The fourth installment in one of Hollywood's iconic franchises arrives after years of development, script rewrites and dashed hopes among fans who are anxious to see how the archaeologist-adventurer outsmarts another gang of nefarious forces.

Most movie franchises, including "Harry Potter," "Pirates of the Caribbean" and "Spider-Man," are owned by studios. The "Indiana Jones" copyright, however, is held by Lucas, who created the adventure story in the 1970s. Lucas, who also invented the "Star Wars" empire, is one of the few contemporary filmmakers to own and control his movie properties.

The structure of the deal between Paramount and Lucas' San Francisco-based Lucasfilm Ltd. predated the current 3-year-old regime at Paramount, headed by Brad Grey. Grey and his associates subsequently tweaked the arrangement to further lower the studio's risk. When it became clear the movie would cost more than expected, Lucas, Spielberg and Ford agreed to offset it by waiving their large upfront fees.

Paramount executives declined to be interviewed, as did Spielberg, Lucas and Ford. However, several people familiar with the deal behind "Crystal Skull" spoke on condition of anonymity because of the confidential arrangement.

According to these people, Paramount spent about $185 million to make the movie and will pay at least $150 million to market it worldwide. The studio will earn a distribution fee of 12.5% of the revenue it receives from the film's release in all media, including theaters, DVD and television.

In comparison, 20th Century Fox received a distribution fee of 6% to 8% for releasing Lucas' "Star Wars" movies. Fox's fee was smaller because Lucasfilm finances the "Star War" movies entirely and effectively pays the studio for distribution. Fox earned between $50 million and $75 million per picture, said a person familiar with the finances.

"Crystal Skull" will have to generate around $400 million for Paramount for the studio to make its money back and earn its distribution fee. Only at that point will Lucas, Spielberg, Ford and smaller profit participants, including screenwriter David Koepp, begin collecting their portion.

Paramount will take 12.5 cents from every dollar thereafter, while Lucas and company will earn 87.5 cents.

In the event that "Crystal Skull" fails at the box office, this arrangement will leave the filmmakers and talent empty-handed. Paramount would lose part of its investment, but not as much as it would have under a conventional deal with top talent.

Although the "Indiana Jones" franchise is considered one of Hollywood's surest bets -- the first three pictures amassed $1.2 billion in worldwide ticket sales -- there is no guarantee that younger moviegoers will turn out in droves to see a now 65-year-old action hero in a fedora dust off his trademark leather jacket and crack his bullwhip. Today's under-25 action junkies are wowed by computer-generated effects spectacles, such as "Spider-Man," "Harry Potter," "300" and "Fantastic Four."

Set in 1957, the fourth Indiana Jones tale relies more on physical stunts than eye-popping effects as it chronicles Indy's adventures battling Russians during the Cold War and racing through the Peruvian jungle in pursuit of the crystal skull. To appeal to the iPod-and-YouTube generation, Spielberg cast as Ford's motorcycle-riding sidekick Shia LaBeouf, the 21-year-old star of last summer's "Transformers."

Though the deal struck between Paramount and the talent is designed to mitigate the studio's financial risk -- and reward the filmmakers in success -- no one in Hollywood can predict the outcome.

"It's still a very challenging business," said Richard Greenfield, a media analyst with Pali Research. "The average movie still loses money."


Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:42 am
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Opening - 222 million 5 day
Total - 380 million


Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:22 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
OD: 49 mill
Three Day Weekend: 101 mill
Opening 5 day: 170 mill.

Domestic Total 405 mill
International: 595 mill
WW: 1 Billion

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Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:14 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Thursday: $37m
Friday: $28m (-25%)
Saturday: $35m (+25%)
Sunday: $31m (-12%)
Monday: $25m (-20%)

3-Day: $94m
4-Day: $118m
5-Day: $155m
Total: $341m


Thu Apr 24, 2008 6:24 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Thursday: 43.5m
Friday: 32.8m (-25%)
Saturday: 37.8m (+15%)
Sunday: 33.0m (-12%)
Monday: 27.0m (-18%)

3-Day: 103.6m
4-Day: 147.1m
5-Day: 174.1m
Total: 345m

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Thu Apr 24, 2008 11:52 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
BJ wrote:
Thursday: 43.5m
Friday: 32.8m (-25%)
Saturday: 37.8m (+15%)
Sunday: 33.0m (-12%)
Monday: 27.0m (-18%)

3-Day: 103.6m
4-Day: 147.1m
5-Day: 174.1m
Total: 345m


BJ you're total disappoints me, i was expecting at least 450 from you


Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:03 am
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Jim Halpert wrote:
BJ wrote:
Thursday: 43.5m
Friday: 32.8m (-25%)
Saturday: 37.8m (+15%)
Sunday: 33.0m (-12%)
Monday: 27.0m (-18%)

3-Day: 103.6m
4-Day: 147.1m
5-Day: 174.1m
Total: 345m


BJ you're total disappoints me, i was expecting at least 450 from you


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Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:04 am
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
BJ wrote:
Jim Halpert wrote:
BJ wrote:
Thursday: 43.5m
Friday: 32.8m (-25%)
Saturday: 37.8m (+15%)
Sunday: 33.0m (-12%)
Monday: 27.0m (-18%)

3-Day: 103.6m
4-Day: 147.1m
5-Day: 174.1m
Total: 345m


BJ you're total disappoints me, i was expecting at least 450 from you


The bat will destroy the old man.


so you're telling me there cant be a 450 and 500 mil film?


Fri Apr 25, 2008 1:54 am
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Jim Halpert wrote:
BJ wrote:
Jim Halpert wrote:
BJ wrote:
Thursday: 43.5m
Friday: 32.8m (-25%)
Saturday: 37.8m (+15%)
Sunday: 33.0m (-12%)
Monday: 27.0m (-18%)

3-Day: 103.6m
4-Day: 147.1m
5-Day: 174.1m
Total: 345m


BJ you're total disappoints me, i was expecting at least 450 from you


The bat will destroy the old man.


so you're telling me there cant be a 450 and 500 mil film?


there can be, but indi isn't going past 360m.

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Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:47 am
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Superfreak
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts

:whaa:

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Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:09 am
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Sorry but the marketing for this film (at least compared to the other high profile blockbusters) has been A W F U L

I don't know if they're holding out until Iron Man is released or what but as of right now they're taking the approach of "well, it's a new Indiana Jones movie, people will know it's coming out very soon"

One way or another it all just seems too quiet.

It's probably gonna top out around 300m, won't go much over but has a chance to go under.

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Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:50 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
It looks dated against he blockbusters this summer. In the 90s I think it would have done better.

350m.


Tue Apr 29, 2008 10:48 am
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
*Ahem* $170m 5-day, $340m total.


If anyone asks, I never made this prediction
:ninja:

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Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:02 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
You mean like Indiana Jones when he trips over his wheel chair? :funny:

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Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:06 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
i dunno, i mean...the footage looks great but...where is the marketing? seriously, the theatrical trailer aint even 2 minutes. ill stick with 175 5 day and 325 total assuming it picks up.

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Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:06 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Straight cash, homie wrote:
i dunno, i mean...the footage looks great but...where is the marketing? seriously, the theatrical trailer aint even 2 minutes. ill stick with 175 5 day and 325 total assuming it picks up.



I don't know if this needs a lot of marketing. In fact, it really doesn't.

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Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation.


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Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:08 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Magnus, don't forget to balance the legs with the nostalgia effect. If people have been waiting for another Indiana Jones film, there is no reason for them to wait for some time longer after a holiday weekend during which they actually have some time off to watch the movie.

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MadGez wrote:
Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation.


My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/


Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:14 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Magnus wrote:
Straight cash, homie wrote:
i dunno, i mean...the footage looks great but...where is the marketing? seriously, the theatrical trailer aint even 2 minutes. ill stick with 175 5 day and 325 total assuming it picks up.


Underestimating legs. It appeals to family, and faces only solid competition. It'll be able to play well throughout June.


I love that so many people are predicting the 5day record, then the worst legs ever, like Village and Hulk legs. Sure the film will have frontloadedness, but if its good, its make 330 million, if its on par with the others, I think 400+ will be a reality. It's not a comic book movie, its a light hearted adventure movie with eyepopping stunts, a hot young star, the biggest movie star of the last 3 decades (Not this one sadly) and the two most important directors visionaries of the last 40 years. Add in pent up demand to the 2nd most successful trilogy of all time after Star Wars. It's a movie that will get repeat viewings

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Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:30 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Magnus wrote:
box-2004 wrote:
Magnus, don't forget to balance the legs with the nostalgia effect. If people have been waiting for another Indiana Jones film, there is no reason for them to wait for some time longer after a holiday weekend during which they actually have some time off to watch the movie.


Oh I know. I'm still predicting a big opening. Just think it will have some okay legs.


If its the only film for 3 weeks it will get repeat viewings. Then Zohan the following week, then a sequel to the most hated comic book movie of the last decade. Its a film that people may not want to see on a big weekend. Not everyone goes to the movies on arguably the biggest movie weekend of the year. They have the first BBQs and just enjoy a day off.

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Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:34 pm
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Thegun wrote:
Magnus wrote:
box-2004 wrote:
Magnus, don't forget to balance the legs with the nostalgia effect. If people have been waiting for another Indiana Jones film, there is no reason for them to wait for some time longer after a holiday weekend during which they actually have some time off to watch the movie.


Oh I know. I'm still predicting a big opening. Just think it will have some okay legs.


If its the only film for 3 weeks it will get repeat viewings. Then Zohan the following week, then a sequel to the most hated comic book movie of the last decade. Its a film that people may not want to see on a big weekend. Not everyone goes to the movies on arguably the biggest movie weekend of the year. They have the first BBQs and just enjoy a day off.


lets see....i have it going something like this:

thurs: 44
fri: 32
sat:39
sun: 35
mon: 25

5 day: 175
opening weekend: 106
memorial day 4 day: 131

Tues-Thurs: 20.6

2nd weekend: 45.2 million -57%

Mon-Thurs: 15.5 million

3rd weekend: 23.5 -46%

Mon-Thurs: 8.0 million

4th weekend: 12.8 million -44%

Mon-Thurs: 5.3 million

5th weekend: 6.9 million -42%

Right now total be 312.8.

Mon-Thurs: 4.0

6th weekend (wall-e, wanted): 3.1 -54%

Mon Thurs (hancock opens wednesday: 2.0

7th weekend: 1.7

Total right now is 323.6....expect it top out around 334-335.

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Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:18 am
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
I think this will end up having decent legs. Not huge, but good by blockbuster standars, kind of like Transformers last summer. (Though with the May release date, more of its repeat business will be concentrated toward weekends rather than weekdays.)

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Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:56 am
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
If they are going to keep marketing this low-key all the way to the opening, it will open with 15-25 million less than it would have with stronger trailers. I'm a huge Indy fan abut the trailers leave me rather cold. I know Spielberg doesn't want to spoil it, but still...

You can create better trailers even if you decide not to show anything. There isn't even proper sense of mystery to the marketing. It's just meh.

But I think the film will rock. Should have quite strong legs for a big summer opener.


Wed Apr 30, 2008 4:12 am
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
Straight cash, homie wrote:
i dunno, i mean...the footage looks great but...where is the marketing? seriously, the theatrical trailer aint even 2 minutes. ill stick with 175 5 day and 325 total assuming it picks up.


Indiana Jones doesn't really need Marketing.


Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:28 am
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Post Re: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Predicts
to make 250 million, it doesnt need marketing. to clear 300 easy and win the year, yes it does, and no, it hasnt got it yet.

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