I find it hard to disagree at this point.

I'm giving Winslet the edge, though...

As weird as it sounds, she is due. Jack won his 3rd 14 years after his second and 3 more nominations; Meryl is going on 24 years and 10 more nominations without a win now.

I hope Meryl wins a third Oscar for Doubt. Although, if Kate Winslet is any good in Revolutionary Road (considering how good she always is, a likely scenario), I'd root for her just because she is so obnoxiously due at this point.

Doubt also has Philip Seymour Hoffman and (yayyyy) Amy Adams! Maybe Amy can pick up a second nomination.

Also, Meryl and Amy are paired together again in Julie & Julia. Looooove it.

I give the edge to Meryl.


Oh my.

Yeah, I think Meryl's time has come for another.

It'll be between Meryl and Moore, unless someone comes out of nowhere. Winslet, like Laura Linney, will keep racking up the nominations, but it'll be hard for either of them to ever win one considering the types of roles they take....like Linney was absolutely phenomenal in The Savages last year....she's so good that you can't see the acting at all. When you can't see the acting, and it's not a gaudy role, there will always be people who dismiss your performance as "good but nothing special," despite the fact that those two are the best actresses of their generation (with Blanchett).

It better be Winslet. She has turned in consistently brilliant performance after consistently brilliant performance and yet every time she gets snubbed.

She's becoming the Martin Scorcesse of acting, and she better not have to wait until she's ancient to get the damn trophy.

Winslet and Leo will win this year.

Count it.

Yeah, it's hard to win an Oscar for subdued roles. I think Winslet should've won for Little Children to be honest, she was bril in that.

That is true, the Academy does go for the more...flashy roles.

Winslet needs to uglify herself. It has worked consistently for other actresses. She needs to play some backwoods country bumpkin who goes to Harvard or something, but it has to be based on a true story etc.

Or she could just play a nun in WWII Europe.

Also, should we start considering The Visitor as a Best Actor longshot? The movie itself is getting good reviews (78 on Metacritic, 88% on RT), with Richard Jenkins is getting universal acclaim. The opening this weekend ws also pretty good ($22,000 PTA from 4 theaters), and if it were to get to at least $2 million (Which was enough for Junebug and Half Nelson), and maybe even get to say, $4 million (What Away from Her did last May), and the Best Actor race is slow this year (Whoulda thunk last year that Mortensen would make it over Hanks and Phoenix?)...it might make it.

That's a lot of variables, but I'll definitely keep it in my thoughts.

Penn should get in (barring a complete disaster of a film). I was in four scenes in Milk, and in each one his acting was fantastic stuff. I can't wait to see if the charisma translate to the screen. Everyone in the crowd was really, really impressed by how well he pulled off Harvey Milk (who was quite the character). He's getting in.

He's definitely in. I mean this role screams "Oscar". I wonder how the (fairly prominent( supporting cast will do.

I think as far as the actors go, this year it will be between DiCaprio, del Toro and Penn.

Meh....Actress is so much more interesting than Actor this year (well, it pretty much always is).

That isn't flashy enough. Unless she commits suicide (The Hours) or kills people (Monster) or is some extremely intense passionate role, she won't get it. Unless they give it to her as a pity Oscar heh, which is about time for that.

I have him at #7 on my list on the previous page

The Oscars would be saved forever if one of the following movies managed to pick up a major nomination: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Best Picture), The Dark Knight (Best Supporting Actor), Wall-E (Best Picture), Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Best Actor), or Pineapple Express (anything big). Never gonna happen, but oh boy would that make my day.

I wonder if Spielberg could turn Indy into an Oscar contender...if the film truly is outstanding and it doesn't get nominated, it will show how fun films really don't stand much of a chance anymore. Then again, Lord of the Rings tied the Oscar record only a few years earlier, so who knows.

right now, my five would be Revolutionary Road, Body of Lies, Australia, Milk, and Burn After Reading. However, chances are, at the best, two of these films will actually pick up a nomination.

I highly doubt that Indy will be a big Oscar contender. It would be cool if the movie delivers on the promise hinted at in the trailer, but it's a sequel and with two directing Oscars, Spielberg isn't considered to be due.

My predicted Picture lineup at this point would be:

- Australia (Luhrmann carried the weirder Moulin Rouge! to a nomination, so he could get more traditional bait to this category if it turns out to be really good)
- Body of Lies (Contemporary drama, Warner Bros- nominated in each of the last five years, winners in two-, overdue director in Ridley Scott... if it gets enough positive hype, I wouldn't be surprised to see it turn up here)
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Fincher is due, but then again, none of his films have managed even one nomination)
- Defiance (It could finally be Zwick's time... or it could miss like all his other movies. Who knows?)
- Milk (Sean Penn's performance looks like it could be a winner in the lead category, and it could definitely be enough to carry this to a nomination)

I'm not at all confident about a single one of them, but it's April, so that's no surprise.

Close.

Se7en got a Film Editing nomination and Alien 3 got Visual Effects.

I have a feeling Australia falls to the early frontrunner/bait curse and pulls up with a 40% on RT. It just seems like the most likely candidate.

I don't know why everyone is declaring Australia a shoo-in. I mean, Luhrman's only made three other films, and only Moulin Rouge! got a lot of acclaim (and even that was criticized for being uneven). Romeo+Juliet got an art direction nomination but I don't think that really counts in this context.

I guess I just think the plot for Australia seems so epic that I see a lot of room for Luhrman to fail. He did well in the relatively narrow scale of Moulin Rouge! but I'm not feeling this one yet.

In other words, I've yet to be convinced.

The Soloist is getting your typical Joe-Wright-Oscar-bait release date:

http://www.comingsoon.net/films.php?id=36437

November 21st

Whoops, my bad.

Fight Club got nominated for Sound Editing.

Also, I think the Dark Knight is locked for Supporting Actor as long as the film is at least as good as the original. Not to mention the technical awards. I'm not really feeling Indy, though.