Okay, so I am pretty certain in predicting No Country for Old Man to take Best Picture and Best Director home.

But let's say There Will Be Blood will upset. Not very likely, but with its gaining steam it's possible. With 33 reviews at MC it has 20 100-reviews, matching NCFOM. Since it definitely has 7-9 more reviews to come, it will top that in terms of passion. As far as the Top films of the critics this year go, TWBB is a solid #2 behind NCFOM (http://criticstop10.com/) and with being a frontrunner for Best Actor, it certainly helps as well. Moreover, it managed a DGA nom despite a late opening date and very limited release so far.

So, let's say a split happens between the two (hypothetically!) which of them would you expect to take Picture home and which Director?


I think, I'd go with P.T. Anderson taking Best Director and No Country for Old Men winning Best Picture. TWBB just seems as a very visionary effort, pretty much an artistic vision of the director. Moreover, I think NCFOM has more often (though still rarely) lost Best Director so far than Best Picture in several awards.

I can't see TWBB ever getting BP without BD, so I went with 1.

That's just like asking us which movie we liked more...and I liked TWBB more, so I voted for it. Not to mention, most of the power of NCFOM comes from the near-perfect direction from the Coens. The way they set up every shot, film every scene, use space and time to add to the effect, etc... it was stronger than the rest of the film, even with Bardem's bad-ass performance. TWBB, on the other hand, was just as equally strong from a directing standpoint as it was from an acting, musical, and visual standpoint IMO.

I don't think it's unlikely.

In fact, I am thinking No Country for BP and There Will Be Blood for BD.

This is gonna be a tough one.

I still don't see There Will Be Blood winning. It's just not Academy's style. I think my view on thsi can change if it stumps No Country in nominations.

Also, I think Coens have been locked up for Director for quite some time. PTA winning, I think, would sorta be like Polanski taking it from Scorsese in 2002 (funny that a Daniel Day-Lewis film was involved in that competition as well though on the opposite side).

If Juno manages to get more than 3 nominations and Blood gets less than 7 then I'd even give Juno an edge over it.

Right now, for the win...

1. No Country for Old Men
2. Into the Wild
3. There Will Be Blood
4. Juno
5. Atonement/Diving Bell/Michael Clayton

I don't see there being a split. Picture and director should end up going to the same movie unless something other than No Country or There Will Be Blood wins, which I think (at this point at least) is pretty unlikely.

My mini-prediction is that Into the Wild wins SAG Ensemble and maybe PGA and emerges as the #2 and "Can it upset No Country? CAN IT?" choice, just like LMS last year, and people will start talking about it and believing in the upset.

But then No Country will still win Picture and Director and we'll all go aw, shucks, that was close.

It's more likely that Juno or Into the Wild will win BP than There Will Be Blood. And the Coens are all locked up. I don't think there'll be a split this year.

See, five years ago, this would have worked. But look at some of this decade's winners: a crime musical [first musical BP winner], a fantasy adventure threequel [first fantasy BP winner], and a primarily entertaining, extremely verbose crime film [the most verbose BP winner ever...none have talked about cunts or any of that]. They simply have a record in recent years of going with something unusual as long as it had enough support. TWBB is a strong second in the support category, and on that note, they have also been a big fan of upsets in the past decade, meaning TWBB has even more it could look forward to. But it does have qualities the Academy does love...undeniably great acting at least from its lead, an American historical setting, and comparisons to "Citizen Kane". Those are all things working in its favor.

and that's just...not true. What has Into the Wild really gotten nominated for that TWBB hasn't? aside from the early awards where TWBB hadn't been seen, pretty much nothing. And if any film seems to be winning aside from NCFOM at these little critics awards, it's been TWBB basically every time. So I don't see why that equates to TWBB having less a shot than Into the Wild. I mean, ITW's a great film, but people thought it was out of the race like two or three weeks ago, and only now that it's gotten a bit more support have people even thrown it back into their predictions.

The Oscars are not about reviews or critics groups or anything like that. They're a popularity contest. And Blood is just too dark and bizarre to win. You compared it to Chicago, ROTK, and The Departed, but all three of those had something that Blood does not - widespread, mainstream popularity. Blood may be better reviewed than No Country, Juno, or Into the Wild, but it doesn't have the audience on its side.

The SAGS.

ITW has the actor turned director... FEAR THE ACTOR TURNED DIRECTOR.

eh, don't argue that No Country has that much mainstream popularity. It's just as much a filmlovers-only film as Blood is thanks to that ending. All of my friends who've seen it said that they didn't like it overall because of the ending. It's not like Crash where general audiences are its most enthusiastic crowd: these are two films made by filmlovers for filmlovers. And for that reason, I really think it could go to either. NCFOM has the early support, and TWBB has the late surge.

and besides, if popularity was the central issue, Juno would blow both of them outta the water, yet its chances at a win are looking very slim at the moment.

haha

Clint Eastwood: Part Deux

Just to make it clear:

I don't think a split will happen either. That was just a hypothetical question ; )

*bump*

I think the Coens will get BD. BP on the other hand is wide open...

Well, I think Cinematography will go to Blood (Deakins will split the votes), Adapted Screenplay will go to NCFOM, I'm pretty sure about that (I mean it even won the Globe over Juno!). Sound will go to NCFOM because it already has two Sound noms already and should probably win one. Or it might go to neither of them.

Out of those categories, I think Editing is the most close call. And also so important for BP...

Atonement for Picture, Schnabel for director.

I also think No Country would have Picture and PTA director. I can't see Blood winning Best Picture, it'd just be so out there for academy standards.

There Will Be Blood has the period setting, comparisons to a film from classic cinema, undeniably glorious acting, and incredible look all working in its favor. I'd say that No Country is just as much out-there for the Academy as far as a film goes; it's basically about a guy running from a deranged, unstoppable killer. Not exactly Oscar stuff, either.

I really, really don't think there'll be a split. If anything they'll give Director to the Coens and Screenplay to PTA, so everyone goes home winners.