Found something, written back in 2005:

and makes no sense.
Animators strike against the writers!

PGA updated predictions:

There Will Be Blood
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Michael Clayton
Atonement

Meh, Michael Clayton is solid. It's going to finish a little bit outside my end-of-the-year top ten.

Juno is where I have the dilemma. On the one hand, I don't really think it's deserving of a Picture nomination, but on the other hand, I'd like to see it happen so that nobody can bitch about how there isn't an audience-friendly picture in the lineup.

DGA + support from everywhere + no hate from anywhere = PGA nom = Oscar nom. Clayton's very likely getting in at this point. However, all the competition from those boderline films - Into the Wild, Atonement, Sweeney Todd, Diving Bell, and even American Gangster - could mean that we could find ourselves surprised on Oscar noms morning.

Apart from No Country for Old Men, there's no movie I'm yet willing to call a lock for a Picture nod. Seriously...

Into the Wild: Great movie (the best of the contenders outside of No Country IMO) and support from DGA, SAG, and BFCA, but the Globes snubbed it, so a miss is conceivable if it doesn't score the PGA and ACE nods.

There Will Be Blood: Lots of raves and looks absolutely fantastic, but it might be too difficult a movie for the Academy to swallow (from what I've heard, at least) and it came out pretty late in the game. Though I don't think that will work against it, it could be a factor.

Michael Clayton: Lots of guild support so far, but there's always the challenge that comes from not being a big "emotions" movie. That's probably one of the bigger factors in the snubbings of Walk the Line and Dreamgirls. And there's the possibility we could see the "liked, not loved" card played.

Juno: Picking up buzz fast, but it may seem a little immature for voters and there aren't really a lot of other places to nominate it. But Ebert's love is a HUGE plus because it attaches a major credible source to the movie's love train.

Atonement: Lots of buzz to begin with and it's probably going to do very well in the technical categories, but the lack of love thus far is pretty discouraging.

Diving Bell and the Butterfly: DGA nod is a major plus and raves have been there, but it's a foreign film and it seems damned tiny up against these other movies. Still, it has a big emotional pull and Schnabel could definitely show up for directing, so it's not out of the question.

Sweeney Todd: With no PGA nod, it's officially dead. One would think Burton would have made it with the DGA considering some are touting this as a career best (or close to it). The buzz died shortly after it began. It could still have a last-minute surge, but those chances are looking less and less likely by the day.

I don't know why we should still consider American Gangster to be in the race. I guess it could be if it got a PGA nod, but it just doesn't seem like there's much love for it. I mean, its lead actor is Denzel Washington, and despite a very good turn, he's a longshot for the nomination, which in itself kind of speaks for how low the buzz is for the film when a name as huge as Washington can't pull an SAG nod or much buzz for that matter after the approval of the critical community upon release. I think he may be falling into the Tom Hanks range where he really has to do something amazing in order to even be considered after the past work he's done.

Any ETA's on those two?

PGA predix

Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

WGA predictions:

Adapted:

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
No Country for Old Men

Alt.: Charlie Wilson's War


Original:

Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
The Savages
Knocked Up
Juno
Michael Clayton

They better be up soon.

There's only so much laziness in bed I'm allowed to have this morning.

I think they're postponed till around noon pst. Lazy-ass writers....it's not like they have anything to write.

ACE predictions comedy/musical:

Juno
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd
Charlie Wilson's War
Enchanted


ACE predictions drama:

The Bourne Supremacy
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
No Country for Old Men
Michael Clayton

Forgot about Bourne, edited the prediction.

What is ACE?

Editor guild.

If Into the Wild gets in here as well, I'd start to wonder on its chances of a Best Picture upset.

I'm still surprised by Letters being nominated last year. Don't get me wrong, it totally deserved it, but there was hardly any indication (hell, if there even was indication) that it was going to be nominated.

PGA Predictions:

Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Alt. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The last two years they were more trying to predict the Picture line-up, and I don't expect much different, with Juno over Diving Bell for B.O. reasons.

I hope for a surprise there, just to shake up things.

So I predict

Juno
Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood
No Country for Old Men
Atonement or Hairspray

Too bad they created a separate category for animated features two years ago; this would've been the place for Ratatouille to show up.

Predictions:
Atonment
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
alt: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Don't underestimate Diving Bell. Kathleen Kennedy is one of its producers, and she heads the PGA, along with the Spielberg effect.

Well, this is the one place I feel Atonement deserves to show up, so if it gets in, I don't think it'll mean it has any better of a chance at a BP nom.

The facts:

If Atonement or Juno misses the PGA, they are out.

If Diving Bell sneaks in, we got our final line-up.

Things will be interesting if Michael Clayton gets a snub, but it is very unlikely.

Will Atonement getting in be considered a "big surprise" considering the state of the race right now? Or The Diving Bell/Sweeney Todd for that matter?


Hmmmmm...

Atonement
The Diving Bell
Juno
No Country
There Will Be Blood

I bet a nominee is HAIRSPRAY.

PGA is screwy. A "surprise," if his source is even accurate, probably means 'never stood a chance' stuff like Harry Potter and The Incredibles.

Hmm, very final predictions:

There Will Be Blood
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Juno
Michael Clayton

Big surprise...I dunno. I suppose Hairspray could get in. It's my 6th choice, alternating with MC possibly.