For opening weekend yes

I think expectations for 300 were mixed. Some expected under $100m. Others (including me) expected a $45m-ish opening with a $130m-ish finish. Suffice to say - it steamrolled all our expectations.

That could happen seeing what 27D did to American Gangster here in Oz

Early on, people predicted around $20-30m. Then, around February, $30-40m. Tracking came in over $40m and people jumped up as high as $55m, I think.

And, by your logic, Cloverfield is also tracking over $40m, so it should be a hit.

I'm referring to March, as the movie was about to open.

And I should put in the point that I'm not trying to compare Cloverfield to 300 from a financial standpoint. I think the real world buzz has been significantly lower on Clvoerfield than it has on 300. It will be a hit, but not a massive one.

Well, yeah.

Other than BJ, no one is predicting it to open to those levels at all. But, $40m+ four-day, like tracking suggests, is totally possible, and more likely than your $19m three-day prediction, imo. If you're right, I'll give you props. But just because no one's talking about it in your video store doesn't mean that people don't wanna see it. Hell, I work at a video store, and the only two recent or upcoming film titles I've heard anyone even drop is The Bucket List and...In the Name of the King. The end.

You're referring to someone else, right?

Because $40 million is actually pretty close to what I'm currently predicting for the four-day weekend ($38 million).

Yes, I am. My bad.

BTW, I'm starting to think that both 27 Dresses and Cloverfield can combine for $80m+ four-day, possibly more.

more, so much more 100m+ between the two on the 4-day fo sho.

Any Future RS?

Yeah i think $50m for Clover and $35m for 27D would give us $85m total for the top 2 films.

I know that doesn't mean anything, but I haven't heard anyone mention this movie other than online, so I can't help but feel that it won't be as huge as some think. I don't know how well people are responding to the ads. I think the handheld camera thing could hurt it. Plus a lot of people won't even know what the hell the movie is about exactly. It really only looks like a monster movie in the TV spots I've seen to someone who knows that it's a monster movie. As far as others are concerned it could be a city under attack by terrorists .

huge weekend coming up.

I am starting to think that 2008 will be a very good year boxoffice wise.

superstitious.

It might, but this is simply just good scheduling. Most studios haven't been daring enough to release a major film like this in a dead month like January.

Yeah, any RS future tracking yet?

I want to know where The Eye is tracking.

Audience at screener didn't buy Cloverfield: legs (or WOM) won't be good.

I smell a SOAP

Early Predictions

3-day

1. Cloverfield - 63.8m
2. 27 Dresses - 19.5m
3. The Bucket List - 13.8m
4. Juno - 11.3m
5. First Sunday - 9.7m
6. National Treasure 2 - 7.2m
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks - 4.7m
8. Mad Money - 4.4m
9. I Am Legend - 3.9m
10. P.S. I Love You - 2.2m

4-day

1. Cloverfield - 75.9m
2. 27 Dresses - 24.0m
3. The Bucket List - 17.3m
4. Juno 14.1m
5. First Sunday - 11.5m
6. National Treasure - 9.1m
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks - 6.5m
8. Mad Money - 5.3m
9. I Am Legend - 4.7m
10. P.S. I Love You - 2.6m

EarLy 4-day Predicts

1. CLoverfieLd - 46.5m
2. 27 Dresses - 27.0m
3. The Bucket List - 15.5m (-20%)
4. Juno - 12.9m (-5%)
5. First Sunday - 10.6m (-40%)
6. Book of Secrets - 7.3m (-35%)
7. ALvin and the Chipmunks - 7.0m (-25%)
8. I Am Legend - 5.0m (-39%)
9. Mad Money - 5.0m
10. P.S. I Love You - 3.2m (-35%)

Top Ten TotaL = 140.1m

My stupid theater chain isn't getting Cloverfield (55 theaters in the chain total). They didn't get Sweeney Todd either.

4-Day Predictions

27 Dresses: $33 million
Cloverfield: $20 million

OK, Cloverfield is selling basically nothing. For a no-name type cast, it's gotta have a greeeat story (300, Knocked Up), this is selling a pure monster movie. Which doesn't even look that scary, nor epic due to the shaky cam. Marketing has been very original, but I think ineffective.

4 Days

Cloverfield $58m
27 Dresses $28m
The Bucket List $15.3m
Juno $12.7m
First Sunday - $10.8m
Book of Secrets - $7.6m
Mad Money $7.5m
Alvin - $6.9m
Legend - $5.2m
PS - $3.0m

I'm sure he'll see 27 Dresses and Mad Money this weekend.

Joe hates Katherine Heigl, so I wouldn't be too sure.

I'm going to go to another theatre this weekend, I think. It only costs $5 so it's not like it's expensive to do when necessary. They got Cloverfield.