Comon, you could make a similar run-down for Wild

1. It has 3 possible acting nominations, Crash had 1 and it was 4th strongest in its category. Btw Dillon may have won a few awards but that doesn't mean he's any stronger than Holbrook. He just never had to face Javier Bardem!

2. It could probably be the overall nomination leader (Possible: Picture, Director, Actor, S. Actor, S. Actress, Screenplay, Editing, Song x2, Cinematography, Score. That's 11, some like Cinematography or Score might miss, but 9 or 10 is still really really great and the best in a couple years. Besides, we're talking about possibility here, possibility! At the very least it's able to get 10+ )

3. It has the actor turned director

4. Vote-splitting theory. ITW could also end up being the light choice to those dark ones. You can't expect everyone to vote for No Country or TWBB, they're the types of films that alienate people.

5. The actors make up 20% of the voting body. I can't think of many films catering more to the acting branch of the AMPAs than ITW.

The Crash comparison by the way wasn't as much about what Crash had and whether ITW has it too, it was more of a statement that anything can happen. Because by all indications... it should have had no chance.

All I'm saying is, I don't like calling things locks. "No one knows anything." I didn't think Atonement or WTL/Dreamgirls the last two years were locks, I didn't think No Country was a lock to win it all a month ago, I thought Brokeback and Episode III for VFX(heh, still don't get that) was a lock but was proven wrong, and I sure as hell don't think it's a guarantee that either No Country or TWBB wins this considering how insanely dark they are for academy standards and how the biggest niche auteurs and their artistic films have had a history of not showing up at Oscar. I'll leave it at that.