at Into the Wild.

There, I said it.

Well, at least Pirates/ Sweeney made it.

Watch it gets snubbed by the Costume Designers' Guild.

Eh, shouldn't Into the Wild had been expected, considering it's been sweeping? It's kinda like Babel at this point in the race, right now to the random CAS nom and cheesy FYC line.

I could definitely see that Drama line-up being the final Editing line-up. However, the editors have increased their independence from the Picture race in the last two years, matching only 2/5. The only film I'd really consider a lock would be NCFOM, with TWBB and Bourne being very close behind.

good noms.

the Atonement snubs don't make sense, nor does the MC/ITW insane love. but whatever.

So look like Michael Clayton is in, against my stubborn reluctance. And the fifth spot is between Diving Bell and Juno.

I liked Michael Clayton and all, but... it just doesn't stand out as one of the 5 best of the year...

Yeah, seriously, Atonement would have made a perfect line-up. All five nominees would have been in the Critics Top 10 then...Clayton? Meh...

However, wasn't Dreamgirls nominated for all those as well and was strill snubbed? Is there hope? Maybe for The Diving Bell to replace MC?!

I am beginning to think that if any film is snubbed for Juno, it'll be Michael Clayton. Still, Clayton has fans among the Hollywood types that yearn for the '70s-type of thrillers, a type that Clayton has been noted for illuminating. That's where I think its passion is coming from. Now it just remains to be seen if that passion is stronger than the passion for Juno, and I honestly think it is.

Either way though, we're looking to have the lowest grossing Picture line-up on nomination morning possibly ever. Even if Clayton was snubbed for Juno it would probably be at less than $170 million, even lower than 2005. If Clayton did make it over Juno, it's below $125 million.

If they snub Juno, though, there would be no clear audiences favorite among the nominees. I mean, to an extent, even Crash was one (okay, I am stretching, but still). Juno would be one, The Departed was one and in Little Miss Sunshine was one. Sideways was one. But without Juno we'd have two very dark dramas, a low-grossing morally-charged thriller, a French movie about the terrible locked-in syndrome and a 140+ minutes long drama about a dude in the wilderness.

Talk about the audiences being estranged...

Ya know what? I think if The Departed was released this year, it'd have won. Even over No Country for Old Men. Critics might not have loved it as much, but enough and it had an overdue director, a huge return to the kind of films he started out with and it was an audiences favorite.

You're not at all stretching it when you call Crash an audience favorite. It had monster legs at the box office, and it was the kind of film that had normal folk discussing Just How Deeply it effected them, much like Million Dollar Baby the year before.

However, I think you give the line-up too little credit. Into the Wild seems like the kind of film that, much like Crash, has people talking about Just How Deeply it effected them (Hell, it even got Loyal!), it just didn't make a lot of money because it got lost in that godawful October clusterfuck.

NCFOM, despite having its detractors (One guy just told me yeasterday it was one of the shittiest movies he's ever seen...yeah), is still a pretty tight thriller with enough deepness to make the audience feel smarter.

Michael Clayton is a combo of those two B.O.-wise, being a thriller that stimulates the mind that unfortunately got lost in October.

Also, I could see Diving Bell catching on with some audiences, as it's been described even by the snobbier moviegoers as a "triumph of the human spirit."

TWBB is probably the most alienating (2.5+ hours with a sociopathic oil mogul...whee), but I think they could all make some nice dough after the noms are announced. I think they could at least pass the 2005 total.

However, one thing I did also notice about that line-up is how guy-centric it is. Hell, the only actress from any of them that is a contender would be Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton. Kinda weird.

Embarrassing to say, I haven't seen any of the contenders except for Juno and Atonement, but if my expected five do make in, will any females care anymore? I mean, they are all male driven, and there are hardly any female characters in them, right? That's why I still have the feeling that Atonement has a chance, even though it looks as bad as it gets right now. There is a large British contingency in the academy and plenty of older women; are they really going to put NCFOM, TWBB, or Into the Wild as their No. 1?

Atonement COULD find itself in an Iwo Jima-like position this season, where everyone declares it dead, only to see it come alive nomination morning. But considering you have 6 other very, very, very strong contenders, that'll be very hard.

I have been thinking about the box-office and I agree that it will pass the 2005 total, but without Juno, I maintain that there's no clear audiences favorite this year. Every year before had movies in the line-up's that were more beloved by general audiences than any in this year's line-up, minus Juno.

Into the Wild (c'mon, we all know it'd get Loyal...he loved Grizzly Man and documentary aside, I see similarities.) made less than $20 million. It is 140 minutes and unlike Crash its message is far less a populist one. It's an outsider film with many things that can be called gratuitous. Certainly not as in-your-face as Crash (I haven't seen it, but I read enough to maintain that).

TWBB, well, you said it yourself, though I think it will make decent money thanks to huge Oscar buzz alone. But it will never be an audiences favorite.

Michael Clayton, well, it's as much a favorite as, say, uhh, Runaway Jury? Well, a bit more, but no one keeps talking about it, I just don't think it stayed as much in the memory of people. Just a very solid thriller, no more, no less. It got a bit lost when released and the rerelease won't make it to a huge favorite. Now those who saw it, liked it, but the audiences are by far not as overjoyed as when they saw LMS or The Departed.

No Country for Old Man...I haven't seen it (so please no spoiler for me), but the ending is apparently as offstream as it gets and while it is as close to a favorite this year as it gets, it's not quite there. I mean, c'mon, it's the Coens!

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly...need I say more? I mean, c'mon, this is like The Sea Inside. It's a horrible situation the man was in until his death, no other way to put it. He suffered a horrible stroke and lived a life of torture until his death. And the film is French! It's also not gonna be another Amelie.

So, yeah, I basically don't think the line-up this year deserves much credit as audiences favorites. NCOM comes closest, but doesn't quite make it.

American Gangster, Juno, Hairspray, Ratatouille, The Bourne Ultimatum...these are the well-reviewed films this year that are audiences-favorites. Atonement, I'm not sure yet, it might become one. It is partly a love story afterall.

Well, there is still Juno. Which seems to have a better shot than Atonement...

I really think Iwo Jima's guild snub had something to do with screeners and nobody seeing it when they voted. I really can't think of why it wouldn't show up in cinematography, editing, etc. if they had seen it.




I think that's pretty clear, yeah. Departed was a critical AND wide audience favorite, it also had all the headline actor power, the most snubbed director in the world, and in general it felt a lot more rewardable as a gangster movie than No Country does as a serial killer one with an arty ending.

I'm seriously considering Into the Wild having a legitimate shot at WINNING now. Honestly if it had a higher box-office and if it had any wins in major categories locked up(If there was no Bardem and Holbrook looked like the favorite, for example), I'd probably be predicting it right now. Hell, I'm still not really sure. If it takes SAG(which I am predicting it will) and PGA, I might be there. LMS only lost with those two because it was a comedy and had no director nomination. ITW wouldn't have that problem at all. I mean... it's making a killing at the guilds that don't include the acting branch, its strongest support base.

You see, though, Shack...how can ITW win Best Picture? When was the last time a movie won Best Picture and no other Oscar or maybe just one more? Because that's what would have to happen. As I said, unlike all huge upsets for BP, ITW is not a frontrunner anywhere.

It is losing all acting awards: Holbrook will definitely lose to Bardem, Keener is not even in contention for a win and Hirsch wil lose to DDL.

The Coens or PTA maaayyyybe will win Best Director. That's a lock.

Sound/Editing? These things will go to NCFOM or Transformers or Bourne. All of them are above by much.

Screenplay? NCFOM has been sweeping screenplay awards. It has got that locked up and its screenplay is one of the most praised things about the film.

So that leaves ITW with a chance at BP and Best Song. Is there a chance that a Best Picture winner would have two Oscars? Hardly. Thus, even theoretically, that doesn't seem possible. Not without a single acting or screenplay win.

I know you are not really predicting it, Shack, so that's not an attack or anything. But I really think that is just impossible.

There Will Be Blood at least has a very tiny chance. It is winning Score (likely) and Actor (definitely). It might win Cinematography as well.

Because the voters aren't going to look at their sheet and go "hmm, Into the Wild probably isn't winning any major categories. I guess I'm can't vote for it then". By trends it'd be unprecedented, but that doesn't mean it's impossible. This year is already maybe the weirdest I've ever seen. Is it really that far off from Crash? That won Screenplay, Editing, and Picture. Maybe ITW wins Editing and Song, who knows. It'd still be 3 wins and would have more nominations going into the night anyways. Crash being a stronger contender in Editing and Screenplay but weaker in overall nominations isn't big enough to bridge the gap of one being a winner and the other being absolutely impossible, I just doubt that.

Oh and again bringing up Crash, wasn't its win deemed impossible in its year too because of how much Brokeback won everything? No film as dominant as it had ever lost. It killed December, it won DGA, it had acting, screenplay, and the techs locked up, it had the critics, the box-office. But it did and on top of that lost to a film mostly ignored in award season, mostly weak critically, and without many major nominations... So shit happens and nothing is impossible in award season. : )

I'm still 70% sure on No Country though.

OK, now it's just ridiculous! Atonement's editing was one of the strongest things about the film, if not the strongest.

It means, though, however, that they probably won't put Into the Wild at #1, bot nothing else from it. Do you really see a chance that it will win Best Picture with only one more win?

ASnd, seriously, but Crash was a frontrunner as far as Editing and Screenplay goes. It was the frontrunner going into the race. These two are very important for a BP win. And seriously, though, Screenplay....ITW isn't even close there. And Editing, well, I think TWBB and NCFOM are far ahead there as well. As I said, it's simply not a frontrunner anywhere.

I guess a SAG win could give it some push, but then it's in the same situaton as, say, Sideways. At least that was a frontrunner for Screenplay. And a crowd pleaser. And a $70 million grosser.

Then again, I think if it loses SAG, even you, Shack, will admit that there's zero chance : ) No?

Okay, is there a screener issue with this guild as well?

Or they nominated the wrong film with Keira in it?

Shack, I had an argument against this in my "Does NCFOM has a chance to be upset?"-thread.

Crash had things going for it and honestly, I was one of the very few predicting it for a BP nom in September/October (never thought it'd win, though).

It had:

1. An important message (sorry, but ITW doesn't come close there...racism is a much much much much much bigger issue). So that was a really huge factor
2. It got a Golden Glone Screenplay nom. And that is a very competitive category usually, since only 5 nominees overall. ITW didn't get that.
3. Crash was the frontrunner for Original Screenplay and Editing and it sweeped all Ensemble awards to date, whereas NCFOM has so far sweeped those. Has Into the Wild won A SINGLE THING so far?
4. Crash won two BFCA awards (Screenplay and Ensemble!). ITW - zilch
5. Crash had a push by Oprah and Ebert.
6. Crash, not Brokeback Mountain, won Best Picure at the CFCA awards. Again, what did ITW win so far?
7. Crash won several awards for Supporting actor. What did ITW win so far?
8. It won SAG and WGA, at least one of the two isn't happening for ITW.
9. Crash grossed $55+ million and was the 2nd-biggest BP nominee of its year - if Juno is nominated, ITW will be the 2nd-lowest-grossing nominee probably this year

No the chances for Crash to win in its year were still around 10% with BBM being 90%. But ITW has got zilch

Comon, you could make a similar run-down for Wild

1. It has 3 possible acting nominations, Crash had 1 and it was 4th strongest in its category. Btw Dillon may have won a few awards but that doesn't mean he's any stronger than Holbrook. He just never had to face Javier Bardem!

2. It could probably be the overall nomination leader (Possible: Picture, Director, Actor, S. Actor, S. Actress, Screenplay, Editing, Song x2, Cinematography, Score. That's 11, some like Cinematography or Score might miss, but 9 or 10 is still really really great and the best in a couple years. Besides, we're talking about possibility here, possibility! At the very least it's able to get 10+ )

3. It has the actor turned director

4. Vote-splitting theory. ITW could also end up being the light choice to those dark ones. You can't expect everyone to vote for No Country or TWBB, they're the types of films that alienate people.

5. The actors make up 20% of the voting body. I can't think of many films catering more to the acting branch of the AMPAs than ITW.

The Crash comparison by the way wasn't as much about what Crash had and whether ITW has it too, it was more of a statement that anything can happen. Because by all indications... it should have had no chance.

All I'm saying is, I don't like calling things locks. "No one knows anything." I didn't think Atonement or WTL/Dreamgirls the last two years were locks, I didn't think No Country was a lock to win it all a month ago, I thought Brokeback and Episode III for VFX(heh, still don't get that) was a lock but was proven wrong, and I sure as hell don't think it's a guarantee that either No Country or TWBB wins this considering how insanely dark they are for academy standards and how the biggest niche auteurs and their artistic films have had a history of not showing up at Oscar. I'll leave it at that.

Yeah, though I can live without Atonement scoring a Best Pic nod, it's a shame it didn't score here. I'd even put its editing above No Country and There Will Be Blood.